Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

[int32_t]

Once they are making a lot of cars they will need to source parts from multiple suppliers to mitigate the risk. And, that's what Ars article is talking about.

So really this article is about half a decade early. This isn't an issue yet and won't be for some time -- if it is ever an issue, since Tesla will be even bigger and have still more experience by the time they are making too many vehicles to make parts themselves. (That's sort of what I hear you saying, right?)

 

[ZachShahan]

Can you cite a source? Because I thought he said the Model 3 would have the newest suite of sensors - which would be more advanced than at least current S/X. They may both end up with the same sensors - if so how will the S/X be "better?"

Sorry, I don't have a link on hand, but the source is Elon.

And it was just generally about the S/X being the premium models and having more advanced tech. Not necessarily autopilot, but maybe stuff like auto-presenting doors, etc.

You can try searching through our archives for specific quotes, or the conf call transcripts (published on Seeking Alpha -- gasp! -- and hopefully other places). Search bar in the menu and another based on Google on the bottom-right in the sidebar: CleanTechnica

 

[ZachShahan]

I think their hand was forced once the overwhelming number of reservations become evident in the first week. They probably would have preferred to stick with their original plan as well. People went in expecting a 2, maybe 3, year wait and were resigned to that and planned accordingly (finances, interim car if necessary, etc.). However, by the end of the first day, even those who had pre-ordered that very day were at risk of having their deliveries push out beyond that. By week 1, the situation had become untenable. A 2-3 year wait is looking more like 5+, so would people be willing to wait that much longer? And the situation gets worse with every passing day. Should they just shut down accepting any new reservations until production ramp-up? None of this would be well-received by the public or the stock market. The Model 3 may be the hottest car on the planet right now, but would that remain the case 4-5 years from when they finally hit their stride and start making a dent in the backlog? The only choice, given the circumstances, is to bring the schedule forward and to announce it. Ramping up in secret won't provide any comfort to anyone still thinking of buying a Model 3 (remember that Reveal 2 is anticipated generate another wave of pre-orders). These people may simply look at the backlog of existing reservations and Tesla's original roll-out schedule and say "screw it, why bother". With the accelerated schedule announced, Elon was able to tweet that you'd better get your reservation in soon if you want the car by 2018 (i.e., you can still get it in a reasonable timeframe even if you order now)... and that anyone who ordered during the pre-reveal has a good chance of getting a car in 2017.

This.

+ this: "he has to explain the coming round of new debt."

 

[EVNow]

Stretch goals work very well with A players. They work poorly with B and C players. That said, it's not my place or intent to argue that stretch goals are awesome. I noted that they create a very painful working environment. The question you should then ask is, does Elon Musk care if working at one of his companies is hard? I think the answer to that question is very obvious.

I know someone who worked for Elon directly. I for one won't be lining up to work for EM - since I have a family (the same reason the person I know quit working for EM).

There is another side to these death marches (sorry, "stretch goals"). This will force people to take shortcuts. If you have to do something by tomorrow - you are forced to make a decision irrespective of whether you have all the data or whether enough analysis has been done. The decisions made could be good - or not so good. This can come back to haunt Tesla later when they find design issues that delay ramp up.

I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.

 

[plankeye]

Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. It's definitely human nature to cut corners when pushed too hard. Happens all the time at my work.

 

[gregincal]

Although to be fair they aren't changing the Model S release timeline, just ramping up the output.

 

[RDoc]

<snip>
I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.

I've seen more than one company die as a result of this practice. The problem was always the same, too short goals on hard projects resulting in people not having enough time to do it right (which often takes a couple of tries). The projects continued with everyone willfully blind to the fact that it wasn't actually working, despite what the PERT charts said.

Then came the day of reckoning when it couldn't be denied any longer that it wouldn't work. Then came the analysis which showed that basically, the project had to be done over from scratch. At that point, further funding was very tough to come by.

 

[TslaIsFuture]

I would say that for most companies, "death marches" would indeed cause failures on many levels. However, Tesla is not like most companies. In fact, it is very unique as to not only the extreme loyalty of customers and "cult followers" but I would venture a guess as to the unwavering loyalty of the employees. Tesla customers have paid a lot of money to be apart of something revolutionary and have put up with delays, repairs, and sometimes disappointment. Yet, they are happy with their cars and with EM (again, for the most part)! Those who go to work for EM know what they are signing up for, they believe in the company and EM. The employees believe in the purpose of Tesla. When you believe to your core about something, you will go far above and beyond the call of duty.

Tesla employees have made sacrifices and they will continue to do so because they believe in EM/Tesla and their values. If only the rest of us could be so lucky as to work for a company like Tesla.....

 

[voip-ninja]

I would say that for most companies, "death marches" would indeed cause failures on many levels. However, Tesla is not like most companies. In fact, it is very unique as to not only the extreme loyalty of customers and "cult followers" but I would venture a guess as to the unwavering loyalty of the employees. Tesla customers have paid a lot of money to be apart of something revolutionary and have put up with delays, repairs, and sometimes disappointment. Yet, they are happy with their cars and with EM (again, for the most part)! Those who go to work for EM know what they are signing up for, they believe in the company and EM. The employees believe in the purpose of Tesla. When you believe to your core about something, you will go far above and beyond the call of duty.

Tesla employees have made sacrifices and they will continue to do so because they believe in EM/Tesla and their values. If only the rest of us could be so lucky as to work for a company like Tesla.....

What a highbrow load of hogwash. Employees care about making a paycheck. Executives that make seven figures can put on a good show about working 80 hours a week but it burns out the non workaholics pretty quickly. You also don't see that behind the scenes they have an entire squadron of underlings to delegate to, even to the point of doing their shopping, picking up their kids and cooking their vegan meals! Or that they go play golf for four hours with minions running around doing things for them and call it "working". Now ask a regular employee to work that hard without the level of support they enjoy.

Human nature is to put the minimum effort in for the maximum reward out. Your top "A" players will do more for a variety of reasons, but no one with any desire for a life outside of work is going to put EM and Tesla's mission up on a pedestal the way you have described.

 

[Krugerrand]

I know someone who worked for Elon directly. I for one won't be lining up to work for EM - since I have a family (the same reason the person I know quit working for EM).

There is another side to these death marches (sorry, "stretch goals"). This will force people to take shortcuts. If you have to do something by tomorrow - you are forced to make a decision irrespective of whether you have all the data or whether enough analysis has been done. The decisions made could be good - or not so good. This can come back to haunt Tesla later when they find design issues that delay ramp up.

I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.

Only true if you're a person who tends towards taking shortcuts in life. My daddy instilled in me as a young child, anything worth doing is worth doing right. He spoke that message and showed me that message in many forms growing up, such that you'd have to put a gun to my head nowadays and even then I'm more likely to tell you to take a flying leap then shortcut something.

One may not like the choices in front of them, but there's always a choice. Nobody is forcing anyone unless you want to be or allow yourself to be forced.

It's well known now that working at Tesla isn't an easy job. People should know this (having done some basic research) before applying for a job there. If you haven't done that basic research and find yourself shocked, then you likely don't belong there in the first place.

 

[Krugerrand]

What a highbrow load of hogwash. Employees care about making a paycheck. Executives that make seven figures can put on a good show about working 80 hours a week but it burns out the non workaholics pretty quickly. You also don't see that behind the scenes they have an entire squadron of underlings to delegate to, even to the point of doing their shopping, picking up their kids and cooking their vegan meals! Or that they go play golf for four hours with minions running around doing things for them and call it "working". Now ask a regular employee to work that hard without the level of support they enjoy.

Human nature is to put the minimum effort in for the maximum reward out. Your top "A" players will do more for a variety of reasons, but no one with any desire for a life outside of work is going to put EM and Tesla's mission up on a pedestal the way you have described.

Your post says more about yourself than it does anyone else.

 

[Alketi]

If you're working at Tesla, SpaceX, Google, or any high-achieving company just to pay your mortgage, then:

a) You wouldn't have gotten past their interview process
b) If you did, you're working for the wrong company

I'd kill to work for those companies; for the work, for the challenge, and for, as someone once said, the chance to put a dent in the universe.

If Tesla misses their production targets, it won't be for lack of effort.

Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life, or do you want to change the world?

 

[gregincal]

Also, I reject the whole notion that the increased Model 3 scaling is a death march. The timeline for starting production of the car is exactly the same. Increasing the production ramp means hiring and training more workers and lining up more suppliers and equipment, but it's much more a question of money than people putting in a huge amount of hours.

 

[Steepler2k]

The timeline to production likely hasn't changed all that much, maybe by 3-4 months at most. The real difference will likely be the speed with which they purchase and set-up the parallel assembly lines. Rather than stretching that ramp-up to last from 2018 to 2020, they're going to make that start in 2017. The design, tooling, etc. to get ready for production isn't likely changing with these new plans. More likely they were much further along than we realized both at the reveal and now.

 

[electracity]

I know someone who worked for Elon directly. I for one won't be lining up to work for EM - since I have a family (the same reason the person I know quit working for EM).

There is another side to these death marches (sorry, "stretch goals"). This will force people to take shortcuts. If you have to do something by tomorrow - you are forced to make a decision irrespective of whether you have all the data or whether enough analysis has been done. The decisions made could be good - or not so good. This can come back to haunt Tesla later when they find design issues that delay ramp up.

I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.

Yep, I have a relative who is an engineer at spacex. People who idealize these companies as great places to work are clueless. There is a reason that there are so many former tesla and spacex employees.

Not that cultural problems are unusual for startups. But Musk's companies have to improve if they want to retain more talent.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Yep, I have a relative who is an engineer at spacex. People who idealize these companies as great places to work are clueless. There is a reason that there are so many former tesla and spacex employees.

Not that cultural problems are unusual for startups. But Musk's companies have to improve if they want to retain more talent.

Many of them are great to have on your resume, and some are good for a quick influx of cash into your bank account...but the burnout is real.

I've worked with a few people who did the startup circuit on the West Coast, and then came East. Surprisingly, they've all liked it on the east coast more. the work load is less hectic, even if us "massholes" take some getting used to.

 

[voip-ninja]

Your post says more about yourself than it does anyone else.

You can think whatever you like, I have been pretty successful in my career and have always risen to a top rating in any job I have ever had.

 

[deonb]

Only true if you're a person who tends towards taking shortcuts in life. My daddy instilled in me as a young child, anything worth doing is worth doing right.

The point was you can't do it right without enough time.

* Resources
* Scope
* Schedule

Pick 2.

 

[Krugerrand]

The point was you can't do it right without enough time.

* Resources
* Scope
* Schedule

Pick 2.

I don't have to pick 2. I simply choose to do my best with what I have. That's 'my' point. People who assume others will automatically take the shortcut because a task is hard, again, says more about those assuming than it does those doing.

 

[deonb]

I don't have to pick 2. I simply choose to do my best with what I have. That's 'my' point. People who assume others will automatically take the shortcut because a task is hard, again, says more about those assuming than it does those doing.

I want you to:

* Scope: Build a house
* Schedule: By tomorrow
* Resources: By yourself

When somebody tries to dictate three sides of an RSS triangle dictated to you, you rarely have any control over Schedule or Resources. So scope is the one that's going to suffer. Instead of building a house, you're going to build a tipi.

And that, is a shortcut.