Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[mborkow]

I’m all for robotaxis but the auto wipers on my model 3 don’t even work properly after how many years now?

I’m sure one of the things about Robotaxis that Elon will enjoy is they won’t complain about the auto wipers

 

[petercc9]

Forgetting for a moment what the RoboTaxi may look like, I wonder about liability. If Tesla owns all the taxis, and there is no human intervention, why would anyone want to take on that liability?

They just follow what Alphabet did for Waymo.

 

[Wildbill]

It is only 4 months away.
I don't think Tesla is coming out with a new model for robotaxi such as a new model 2.

I think Elon is just planning to put in a more advanced version of FSD in slightly modified Model 3 or Model Y and send these out into the streets to compete with Waymo.

 

[petercc9]

It is only 4 months away.
I don't think Tesla is coming out with a new model for robotaxi such as a new model 2.

I think Elon is just planning to put in a more advanced version of FSD in slightly modified Model 3 or Model Y and send these out into the streets to compete with Waymo.

That was my original idea...but now I'm wondering about the door issue.
Waymo has the auto slide doors while the 3 and Y don't. This is going to cause stranded cars when people don't shut the doors correctly.
Unless they shoehorn in the Model S actuators.

They may have to use Model S's.

Of course they could also have drivers...

 

[Kablooie]

 

[petercc9]

I think it will fail the side impact crash test miserably.

 

[eli_]

I'm predicting that the Tesla Robotaxi will be battery-powered.

 

[spacecoin]

I agree. I have a feeling the robotaxi and model 2 will have a lot of overlap and both be predicated on the new manufacturing process they want to employ

I expect the same old song: “It’s a robotaxi by the end of the year but it requires supervision until then”.

 

[spacecoin]

I'm expecting a 2 seater, overall similar to the first concept art. I do expect a 4 wheeler vs a 3 wheeler with a single back wheel. Potentially RWD only. I'm expecting it's designed as a shared platform for a small compact personal vehicle (with normal drive controls, same as Model 3) and a dedicated robotaxi (2 seater in both cases). It might be steer by wire.



I think they'll sell them to individuals. There's plenty of market for cheaper EVs, I don't' see why they wouldn't sell these to people.



Can't Model 3 fill that role? Maybe 70% of the robotaxi market is served by 2 seater vehicles, with the remainder served by larger vehicles. I don't have any supporting data, but it seems reasonable that most robotaxi trips could be 2 or fewer people (especially as costs go down). Most cars on the road already are, and they have higher operating costs than a small EV.



I expect it'll use more or less the same sensor and compute suite as the other cars. Divergence isn't a good thing for training an E2E AI system.

By the time this thing actually ships that might be HW5 though (with who knows what changes!) or still HW4 (probably with the front bumper cam like CT).



Sounds expensive. I doubt this thing will have a lot of shiny features that add cost - I'm expecting high focus on energy efficiency and material efficiency. Built in Starlink seems like a much more useful feature in a Cybertruck for personal use, not a shared use urban robotaxi.

Sat internet doesnt work great in dense pop areas nor in areas with high buildings.

 

[OxBrew]

Prototype will drive onstage, Elon will get out, close up shows no steering wheel or pedals, cheers, yay!

Then only a few minutes later the car will suddenly crank the wheels hard left, lurch forward, and stop, half the car teetering off the stage.

Rumors (unfounded) quickly spread that a guy operating the remote that actually drove the car had a breakdown, said f--- this, quit on the spot, smashed the controls and walked out the back.

It will go down as another steel ball in the cybertruck glass viral moment.

An xBox wireless controller was found backstage, and someone said hey, is that the same one they used to drive the Ocean's Gate submersible?

17 pages of arguments over the specific model of controller will erupt on TMC, and we'll all learn way too much about wireless vs wired xBox controllers over the next 8 years that the thread dribbles on.

 

[phxazcraig]

I think Elon will announce a vehicle as far in advance of production as the Cybertruck.

 

[Krash]

…how will they recharge without someone plugging them in?…

Induction. Really.

 

[Dewg]

I think I saw this on the set of Westworld

 

[David Gidds]

I'm a part time Uber driver with my tesla now 4 years. The majority of fares are 1-2 people. I'd say 80%. Rarely do we get 3-4 and if we do it's primarily evening weekends. So a model Y or 3 use needed for larger groups or Airport transportation.
A 2 seater makes a tremendous amount of sense for the vast majority of transportation use.
Commuters using it for the beginning of, or final leg of mass transportation connection.
This past week I have been using the 30 day trial of FSD while driving Uber. Usually i only do 2 days a week, but with the trial I've driven everyday all day. I've been blown away. I can definitively say V12 FSD is a game changer.
This Robotaxi concept is just literally around the corner.
I have been engaging FSD with passenger permission "SUPERVISED" to drive us, and blowing peoples minds. It is incredible it is to see in action.
I believe it will be a 2 seater Robotaxi to start plus be a model 2.
I don't expect to see them in production and on the road until 2028.

 

[MikeChicago]

When to announce the next best thing?

Is the stock down?
Is there lots of bad press about Cybertruck?
Are deliveries for last quarter down?
Was there a stock downgrade?

3 or more = Announce

 

[EatsShoots]

I think it will be less about a new vehicle and more along the lines of "guys, for real serious this time it's about to release!", yet it will be another failed prediction from him in regard to FSD timeline. No honest person can believe FSD is anything close to ready for production. As impressive as FSD is right now it's still, in my view, years from ready for robotaxis (autonomous driving without a person at the wheel).

 

[jeewee3000]

Would be hilarious if the concept robotaxi uneiled on 8/8 has:
- LIDAR
- 16 cameras, current spots and two cameras on all corners
- radar, front back and sides
- ultrasonic sensors
- HD maps
- Nvidia chip

"Coming soon"

 

[JulienW]

Would be hilarious if the concept robotaxi uneiled on 8/8 has:
- LIDAR
- 16 cameras, current spots and two cameras on all corners
- radar, front back and sides
- ultrasonic sensors
- HD maps
- Nvidia chip

"Coming soon"

Well Tesla is shooting for a L4 taxi and not just Elon "shooting" his mouth off.

A little OT: I suspect that by changing FSD Beta to FSDSupervised Tesla is "washing" their hands and this will be the FSD delivered system. Of course it will improve but I bet it will be mostly a L2 with the possibility of some ODD L3 thrown in.

 

[BrerBear]

As I mentioned the last time Elon shot off about an eminent but non-existent robotaxi service… until we see evidence of him hiring the engineers and staff to support billing, ride hailing, customer support, and emergency operators, this is a big vaporware. People in the industry talk, and if he starts doing any of those things, we’ll know it.

Otherwise, this is going go be a “coming someday” pep squad like his robots, most likely driven by the fact that Waymo’s success is really embarrassing Elon.

 

[diplomat33]

I feel like Elon wants to announce a robotaxi on 8/8 just to keep up with the competition. We've seen Cruise, Zoox and Waymo showcase their dedicated robotaxi vehicles. Cruise got shut down but GM has produced a bunch of the Origins for when they do redeploy. Zoox is actively testing their robotaxi on public streets now. Waymo is scaling their I-Pace robotaxi and will soon start testing their Zeekr robotaxi. Tesla is looking more and more like they are falling behind on robotaxis. So I think Elon will show off a concept robotaxi just to be able to say that Tesla also has a dedicated robotaxi vehicle coming.