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MaxRange

Go4IT

Member
Mar 18, 2013
88
53
Belgium
From an automotive industry perspective, I am actually not sure this is good news. The issue will not so much be warranty on battery pack but rather less business replacing cars that last way longer than the traditional ICE cars.

This is probably why Tesla will not warrant the Model 3 battery/drive train as favourably as TMS or TMX. It will “just” be 120.000 miles with 70% capacity. No doubt they will be able to honour that performance based on what we observe currently…


PS : Sorry for not expressing all this in NL but I was in a hurry to express myself and could not possibly do it with the right NL words…
 

Wim S.

Banned
Apr 11, 2013
5,648
6,037
NL
Furthering my observations about recently observed increase in degradation rate (probably due to that bad module), I now expect to see a horizontal S-shaped curve for high-millage packs. Much different than the asymptotic curve with zero degradation in the long term often suggested on the forums? Who would expect that to happen? Simply not realistic!

So the quoted 80% remaining capacity after 500.000 mi (i.e. 800.000 km) in the article is simply not realistic!

Anyhow, the probability to have the (old) car totalled will be much higher than to have still on the road by then…
Nederlands leest toch echt wat makkelijker ... :confused:
 

PaulusdB

Mayor Gnomus Vintage Limb
Jul 12, 2013
6,676
6,396
Europe
...
PS : Sorry for not expressing all this in NL but I was in a hurry to express myself and could not possibly do it with the right NL words…
If this thread were to be in Dutch exclusively, why then would we put it on a forum called ‘Europe - Belgium and the Netherlands’?
(And give it an English title, to begin with?)
 

ElecFan

Member
Sep 25, 2017
861
699
Netherlands
@Go4IT Iedereen kan het hier prima lezen, hoor. Je horizontale S-curve kwam aan de andere kant bij mij niet helemaal uit de verf. Misschien kun je uitleggen wat je daarmee bedoelt? En ook waarom de asymptotische functie op basis van de huidige data niet realistisch zou zijn.
 

Go4IT

Member
Mar 18, 2013
88
53
Belgium
Why is the asymptotic curve not realistic?

We all accept that any mechanical system wears over time right? Regardless of how gently it is used, a gear box, an ICE engine or a clutch will eventually wear to a level that it becomes unusable. We all have experienced this with over a century of ICE cars.

Chemical systems such as our battery packs are just the same. Chemical reactions take place at the beginning of the life cycle of a battery in a nice and clean environment. As the electrolyte gets older, ions will move less smoothly and in smaller quantities as worn material aggregates in sensitive areas of the electrolyte as well as on the anode and the cathode.

So, in that view, an asymptotic curve with an initial 5-10% degradation and then stabilization forever is simply not realistic. The battery will see its capacity degrading over time until it becomes realistically unusable. Same goes for instant power BTW. I am sure that the instant power I use to enjoy in the early days of my EV driving (not any more as I became a gentle EV drive ;-) with a new pack is no more available after 300.000km and 5 years. A 0-100km/h test would be an good evidence: no way I can make it 4,2 sec anymore. Actually, one could see that initial 5-10% degradation as a sort of break-in period of time, a bit like a new ICE engine needs to run a few hundred hours before it can deliver its full potential. Except that, for batteries, things seems to go towards an initial (limited) degradation rather than (temporary) improvement as observed on an ICE.

There are many variables to be taken into account in analyzing battery aging: time life, stored and operating temperature, number of charge/discharge cycles (whether full 0-100% cycles or micro cycles such as acceleration/regen cycles repeatedly applied to the pack during normal driving), frequency in approaching 0% or 100% SoC, aggregate time with pack closed to 0% or 100%, etc.). Each of these factors individually will affect battery aging and, most importantly, will affect it even harder when combined together. So it is the combination of all these factors that will accelerate the capacity degradation at some stage, to a level that it is no more usable (some will consider such level to be 70%, other will still be happy with 50%, it’s all up to the user). But at the end, one thing is for sure: the battery WILL die at some stage and faster than historical data would have predicted. Based on my 300.000km and 5-year experience, it is simply not realistic to predict 80% capacity after 800.000km as stated in the article and suggested in our GoogleSheet.
 

Go4IT

Member
Mar 18, 2013
88
53
Belgium
So this should kill the generally accepted asymptotic curve. But why an horizontal S-shape curve instead then? Rather than “horizontal S-shape curve”, I should talk about the “cliff curve”. Here is a nice representation of a typical cliff curve

Aging-curve.png




It clearly shows a cliff at the end. Well, with my pack, I can already see how this cliff will materialize with one of my 16 modules building the pack (all of its 6 groups reach max and min voltage faster than groups from other modules). No doubt this will greatly influence performance of the whole pack and eventually render it unusable.

Aging is often discussed for living species, including human beings. Well guys, we are nothing else than highly developed chemical systems so here is a nice discussion about aging which demonstrates that it is just a question of life style and expectations.

Just apply it to your battery pack and decide for yourself the life style you want your pack to have. Personally, I decided to charge my pack almost daily at 100% and enjoy the full range I need thereby demonstrating that EV are just as flexible than ICE. But on the other hand I opted for gentle driving habits. As I plan to live longer than my battery pack, I am not concerned at all about it showing early signs of aging. To the contrary, if the pack becomes unusable before the 8-year warranty (which it seem to), I will not hesitate to go to Tesla and ask for a replacement.

Others may go for a different choice of pack life style and expectations...
 
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AUG::AS

New Member
May 13, 2018
1
0
Austria
Wanted to add my Model S battery stats to the public google doc, (MaxRange Tesla Battery Survey) but it is locked. Electrek (blog) showed this thread as the source of the file? Are you still interested in new data? Where can I enter it or send it to?
 

bambam4171

Member
Oct 4, 2017
359
1,111
Swiss boonies
@Go4IT The battery seems to hold up quite nicely. Yes there may be modules that need fixing but there is a potential that with some minor fixing a battery could run several hundred thousand km

From here: Model S Kilometer-König im Forum • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde
Platz 1: hans63, 600.000 km (01.04.2018)
EZ: 08/2013, 2. Akku nach 55.000 km, 3. Akku (repariert?) nach 380.000 km, 2. DU nach 75.000 km, 3. DU nach 129.000 km

So Hans had a second battery at 55k km and a battery repair (not sure if battery replaced or just repaired) after 380k km. He has now 600k km on the Odometer
 

S-19910

Driving Model-S #19910
Aug 13, 2013
7,113
6,205
Grobbendonk, Belgium
Wanted to add my Model S battery stats to the public google doc, (MaxRange Tesla Battery Survey) but it is locked. Electrek (blog) showed this thread as the source of the file? Are you still interested in new data? Where can I enter it or send it to?

I would also like to add my data
2014 MS 85 - currently 86,000 miles on the odometer
max range is still 258 miles.

spreadsheet is run by @Matteo
you could PM him.

Unfortunately, the sheet is idd locked now, apparently some people had problems with the performance of Tesla
 

Bersselaar69

Member
Dec 27, 2016
231
134
Elst (gld)
Kennelijk vannacht een softwarematige batterij upgrade gehad. Bereik is 331 Km terwijl er sinds de laatste keer opladen al 163 Km is gereden. Toch een bereik van 500 KM en dat voor een S75. ;););)
 

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fsch

Member
Sep 21, 2015
151
177
Montreal, QC
So, in that view, an asymptotic curve with an initial 5-10% degradation and then stabilization forever is simply not realistic. The battery will see its capacity degrading over time until it becomes realistically unusable. ... Based on my 300.000km and 5-year experience, it is simply not realistic to predict 80% capacity after 800.000km as stated in the article and suggested in our GoogleSheet.

I'm the culprit who suggested/developed the asymptotic model now included in the spreadsheet. :) But I agree with you that, among other things, the graph might me misleading in that it shows only the top part of the battery capacity curve. A workaround would be to add data points of when (what millage) people got a battery replacement, which would somehow show an indication of when the curve drops (as per the graph you included in you subsequent post). Such data is already available in the spreadsheet.
 

Tozz

Active Member
Jan 10, 2018
2,518
1,752
Tynaarlo
Voor wat het waard is heb ik een nieuwe 100D even naar de 100% gebracht (niet gewacht tot hij klaar was, stond nog met 2kW te druppelen) en kwam nu uit 509 km typical range mode uit. Nog een ingaven in de sheet, dus die ook maar even toegevoegd.

Hier 508km na 6500km. Ook nog met 2 kW te druppelen, maar was het wachten zat.
Rated is 632km.

Bij gebrek aan schrijftoegang tot 't google docs ding.
 
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widodh

Model S 85 and 100D
Jan 23, 2011
6,853
2,776
Venlo, NL
Hier 508km na 6500km. Ook nog met 2 kW te druppelen, maar was het wachten zat.
Rated is 632km.

Bij gebrek aan schrijftoegang tot 't google docs ding.
Mooie informatie! Mijn 100D komt over ~4 weken en zie graag een keer >500km op een Model S staan als hij vol geladen is.
 

x4er0

Member
Oct 3, 2017
142
61
Amsterdam
Wat ik nu ervaar is het volgende; 12000KM op de teller en 100% is nu precies 495KM maaaaar als ik rij blijft hij enkele kilometers op 495 staan, volgens mij dus nog steeds 500+
 
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Nexus

Active Member
Aug 25, 2015
1,101
634
Grave, Noord-Brabant
Voor het eerst een range charge gedaan.
Viel me op dat hij op het einde inderdaad nog een tijdje blijft laden op slechts een paar ampère (cellen balanceren).

85 kWh accu / plm. 6.500 km en komt op 423 km typical met v7.1.

Nieuw datapuntje.

50.000 km aangetikt, 85D van dec-2015.
Range charge kwam op 421 km.
Bij 80.000 km zit ik nu op 411 km.
(423-411)/423 = 2,8% degradatie (obv MaxRange).
 
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widodh

Model S 85 and 100D
Jan 23, 2011
6,853
2,776
Venlo, NL
Voor het eerst een range charge gedaan.
Viel me op dat hij op het einde inderdaad nog een tijdje blijft laden op slechts een paar ampère (cellen balanceren).

85 kWh accu / plm. 6.500 km en komt op 423 km typical met v7.1.

View attachment 110741
Flink verschil die 85D vs een 'oude' 85.

Mijn 85kWh uit 2013 met nu 230.000km op de teller geeft 382km aan bij 100%. Nieuw was rondom de 400.
 

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