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Troy's estimator has always been over 6 months off for me. Call me naive, but I'll stick with the official Tesla one.Yikes, I haven't visited the delivery estimator in a while. The last time I did, Troy's estimate was fairly close to the March-May timeframe of Tesla. Now Troy's estimator is showing mid July for me for a 55D, non-owner. Hoping Troy is wrong.
That's something I've been telling Tesla every time. In stead of promising delivery by day X and then postponing that 5 times, why not tell me delivery will be in month X and surprise me five weeks early by saying the car just arrived. It's not that we desperately need a new car, it's just about managing expectations
That being said: what's just as bad is the Tesla site telling you "Late October/Early November delivery" when you configure, and once you confirm the order, that becoming "Mid December/Early January" or so. I think this does happen more often than we'd like...
I just did it again and got the same date, Dec 30th. Tesla gives me Jan-Mar since I'm just getting the standard. Pretty accurate I must say. The only thing better would be if those store employees are right in the slightest way and it's bumped one month up...wouldn't care if it's on the last day of December
Yesterday he said that they expect test drives around October (and took my info so when they get those they'll email to schedule test drive)
boiler81
Member
What have they put in place of where the chassis "skateboard" sat? It had just been removed on 7/26, when I stopped in, and you could still see dust on the floor from where it sat. Sales Rep, of course thought M3 would go there soon
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Remember, it's only employees who want the initial production. Employees who want the smaller battery (which I would imagine would be a lot of them) don't start getting cars until after initial production to existing owners starts.
That's true, I hadn't thought of that. If the ramp goes as planned, then even a few thousand employee first production cars could be done by the middle to end of October at which point they start on owners who want FP.
seattlite2004
Active Member
With the latest Q3 info... What is the probability that in-line West Coast folks that want the LR version will get the full tax credit?
Hi, @DarthPierce. Imagine today is 21st May 2018 and Tesla starts making the AWD version. They have employees, owners, line-waiters and day-1 online reservation holders all waiting for the AWD cars and the full tax credits is going to run out in 40 days on 30th June 2018 and they have already delivered 65% to 70% of RWD orders in the entire USA depending on the region. What do you think they should do? What would be fair?
My assumption is, they will completely stop RWD production and make only AWD and Performance cars until those also reach 65-70%. In my calculation, I have put you after this period. In fact, I also added EU and Asia deliveries before they return to RWD production. In Tesla's version, they are estimating that they will be able to make your car before they start making the AWD versions. I'm estimating lower production numbers than Tesla. Therefore the calculations are now different. However, I do hope Tesla's version is correct and I'm wrong and you get your car sooner. I just wanted to explain the reasoning behind it.
My assumption is, they will completely stop RWD production and make only AWD and Performance cars until those also reach 65-70%. In my calculation, I have put you after this period. In fact, I also added EU and Asia deliveries before they return to RWD production. In Tesla's version, they are estimating that they will be able to make your car before they start making the AWD versions. I'm estimating lower production numbers than Tesla. Therefore the calculations are now different. However, I do hope Tesla's version is correct and I'm wrong and you get your car sooner. I just wanted to explain the reasoning behind it.
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Ahh, interesting assumptions... I would assume, on the other hand that the line they are working on now will continue belting out RWD cars indefinitely and that the second line (that gets them from 5k/week to 10k/week "during 2018") will be devoted to producing the D cars.
It would be quite strange to me to have my delivery estimator suddenly add a year to the first production while leaving AWD unchanged in a few months time.
I'd be extremely surprised if they produce the EU and Asia backlog after stopping the RWD line before returning to US deliveries... why would they want to not sell during the $3750 and $1875 tax credit phase? That's still giving people the ability to option-up that wouldn't otherwise.
I would further speculate that EU and Asia deliveries will be tied to EU and Asia Gigafactories (since there are supposedly 4 more gigafactory locations being announced this year)
Certainly no one who knows can talk about it, so we'll find out when we find out.
It would be quite strange to me to have my delivery estimator suddenly add a year to the first production while leaving AWD unchanged in a few months time.
I'd be extremely surprised if they produce the EU and Asia backlog after stopping the RWD line before returning to US deliveries... why would they want to not sell during the $3750 and $1875 tax credit phase? That's still giving people the ability to option-up that wouldn't otherwise.
I would further speculate that EU and Asia deliveries will be tied to EU and Asia Gigafactories (since there are supposedly 4 more gigafactory locations being announced this year)
Certainly no one who knows can talk about it, so we'll find out when we find out.
It's anybodies guess, but they definitely didn't do it that way back when I got my car. For the Model S, I got my 85kWh soon after they started production of 60kWh, but I didn't have to wait until all earlier 60kWh reservationists got their cars. They just started interleaving 60s and 85s with a bias on 60s until they caught up.
melindav
☰ 2018
With all due respect to Troy's hard work, some of the assumptions in his model run contrary to what Tesla is indicating that they are going to do by way of the estimates they are giving. Given that only Tesla actually knows what their plans are, I would believe Tesla's prediction far more than anything that is derived from guessing how they will prioritize orders. I feel the assumption that they will switch 100% percent over to dual motor is just wrong, because they haven't done that previously. And I think their choice will have very little to do with what is "fair", rather than what will allow them to push out the most units.
Foxhound199
Member
I feel your reasoning makes a lot of sense as a strategy for rolling out the cars, but it isn't the one that Tesla has told us they intend to implement. They claim that with each major set of new options, we will see a very slow S curve ramp of its production, just like the original production run. That's the exact opposite of slowing down existing option production as soon as new variations become available. Sure they could be wrong about that, but it's the best we have to go on.
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