-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Perhaps Tesla is now considering the midwest a foreign country.
N5329K
Active Member
Once more, my guesstimated delivery date has remained stable:
Standard Battery
220 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive
$35,000
Mar - May 2018
Standard Battery
220 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive
$35,000
Mar - May 2018
kev1n
Active Member
anyone that is a current Model S/X owner put in a reservation recently(within the past week or so)? curious to see what the estimated delivery date is. thanks!
Hi, everyone. They have a little upvote competition on Reddit about who explains the federal tax credits situation better. I wrote a message HERE. Feel free to upvote that if you like my version.
@kev1n, there is a screenshot here by @moarpwr who is an owner who reserved recently in March 2017. It looks like owners jump right in front of the queue after employees.
@kev1n, there is a screenshot here by @moarpwr who is an owner who reserved recently in March 2017. It looks like owners jump right in front of the queue after employees.
DR61
Member
My Tesla delivery estimate (reservation 4/1/17, California):
Jan-Mar 2018 for long range RWD <<< selected
Small battery: Ap-Jun '18;
Dual motor: Sep-Nov '18.
Jan-Mar 2018 for long range RWD <<< selected
Small battery: Ap-Jun '18;
Dual motor: Sep-Nov '18.
Hi, everybody.
A few messages above I said based on my latest calculation, Tesla is expected to hit 200,000 USA sales on 24 January 2018. Scratch that. I forgot the fact that 100% of production will go to the USA for a long time, contrary to previous expectations. I have now updated that and it shows 9 January 2018 for the day Tesla will hit 200,000 USA sales.
In other words, it is a very close call between the two scenarios. The Optimistic Scenario is slightly more likely but just a little. Let's hope Tesla's production ramp up in 2017 won't be slightly better than expected because that would mean hitting 200,000 USA sales in Q4 2017 (the Pessimistic Scenario).
@boiler81, yes, the last changes had a big effect on federal tax credits calculations as you anticipated. The reason is that the Model 3 FAQ page here says "late 2018" for international deliveries. In other words 100% USA deliveries for all the quarters that matter.
Pessimistic Scenario
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
Optimistic Scenario
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
A few messages above I said based on my latest calculation, Tesla is expected to hit 200,000 USA sales on 24 January 2018. Scratch that. I forgot the fact that 100% of production will go to the USA for a long time, contrary to previous expectations. I have now updated that and it shows 9 January 2018 for the day Tesla will hit 200,000 USA sales.
In other words, it is a very close call between the two scenarios. The Optimistic Scenario is slightly more likely but just a little. Let's hope Tesla's production ramp up in 2017 won't be slightly better than expected because that would mean hitting 200,000 USA sales in Q4 2017 (the Pessimistic Scenario).
@boiler81, yes, the last changes had a big effect on federal tax credits calculations as you anticipated. The reason is that the Model 3 FAQ page here says "late 2018" for international deliveries. In other words 100% USA deliveries for all the quarters that matter.
Pessimistic Scenario
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
Optimistic Scenario
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
Last edited:
Thanks for your work on updating that. That estimate is more in line with what I was thinking, and means that it won't take much for Tesla to outperform and cross the line in 2017. However, Elon said that they would be willing to hold deliveries to make sure as many people get the full credit as possible.
I'm just disappointed that I will likely won't be able to get the full credit and AWD.
Don't they have 79,000 US sales left (to hit 200K) as of 1 July? Would you be willing to be more granular with your prediction (like S, X and 3 sales per month)? I don't see how they get there that quickly.
down at the bottom of the manage page(the one that says "more info coming soon)", there is a section listed as "Learn More" the "Delivery Estimator" is now a link under that.
Foxhound199
Member
I assume they know what they are doing, but to me it seems like it would be really handy to throw British Columbia deliveries into the mix this year. Maybe there are regulatory complexities that necessitate waiting, but having the option of pushing a few deliveries north of the border if production exceeds expectations seems a better alternative than either losing the credit a quarter early or twiddling their thumbs while a delivery backlog grows.
You get there quickly when they start making 20,000 Model 3s per month.
Figure 30k Model S/X in 17Q3&4.
Model 3:
July: 30
August: 150
September: 1500+
October: 3k
November: 6k
December: 5k/week = 20k
Total: ~31k
That puts you at 60k more cars by the end of the year. And October/November will probably have at least double the number of Model 3s I put there.
That only works if they have already taken the time to meet all of the Canadian regulations and get it approved for import by the end of the year.
My calculations show 130,268 USA sales as of July 1, 2017. The current number is 135,037 units. To see the numbers I use, look at column AK here for Model 3 USA sales and column AH for S/X sales. There are also 590 units of the Roadster sold after January 1, 2010. This is the date in the rules. Yes, I have checked the Roadster VIN numbers.
Some of the USA sales numbers were confirmed by Tesla. See the green numbers with links in column O and P. More specifically 16,689 USA sales in 2014 and 25,202 in 2015 and 14,584 in Q3 2016 are the USA sales numbers released by Tesla.
Last edited:
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I wonder if they can't push it out to Q2. It'll take a lot of Model 3s delivered in Q1 to hit the 200,000 mark.
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 112,533 (28,896 Model S and 18,223 Model X = 47,119 for 2016 + prior years)
2017 Jun 132,673 (11,195 Model S and 8,945 Model X, and 0 Model 3 = 20,140 for Jan-Jun 2017 + prior years)
I'm thinking around ~160,000 mark at Jan 1 2018. Leaving room for 35,000 to 40,000 deliveries in Q1.
How many are you projecting to be delivered in Q1?
How do you come up with only 160k by the end of the year?
Figure there will be another 25k in S&X alone puts you to 157k. (169.5k by the end of 18Q1). You think they are only going to deliver 3k Model 3s this year and ~9k/month of them in 18Q2? (When Elon said they will deliver 1,500 in September, and be making 20k/month in December...)
So if they hit the 20k/month at the end of December, that is still 60k Model 3s in 18Q1. Which pretty much guarantees they cross the line in 18Q1 even if they delivered 0 Model 3s and pretty much stopped US sales of the S&X in 2017.
tl;dr: There is no possible way for Tesla to cross the 200k mark in 18Q2.
60k+. (Exit December at 20k/month and it will continue to increase through 2018.)
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Article
