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nutts1
Member
One of my referrals purchased a Model S in December 2018. He had a Model 3 reservation for over a year with a mid 2018 delivery estimate. He got his invitation to configure last week, less than a month after the Model S purchase. It looks like he moved up at least 6 months due to the purchase.
Your duty is to only obey, citizen (I agree with you wholeheartedly, btw).
the cynis in me says "why wouldn't they force the upgrade"? They know have an easier time rationalizing the 5K PUP or 9K LR with the additional $3750 tax break, so why wouldn't they hold off on the cheaper models until after the tax break is gone?
ummgood
Member
Honestly I think the worst thing Tesla could do right now is push out people that have specific delivery estimate windows by adding in new options that cause people to start ordering again. Since they have the numbers and know roughly who is waiting for what I am guessing that once they feel like they can meet the first production delivery windows then they'll announce the next option configurations. Right now they are behind on the first production delivery windows so releasing SR or white interior would cause more unhappy people when those options are lose estimates compared to the specific month ranges for the first production releases.
I am guessing (my opinion) that They might have to wait until they are currently shipping the Feb-April first production windows before announcing SR being available. Right now they are at least behind by 1 month. This from someone who was number 100 in line in Austin but a non-owner and I haven't been invited to configure yet even though my window for delivery is Dec-Feb. I know there are more people in front of me in line that also haven't been invited. Based on the 4 week estimate after configuration if they don't have me an invite this week they are then late for first production based on the estimates. So I don't believe they'll be adding options until they can get people actually being delivered in their windows. Then when that occurs or they know the trend is heading that way they'll open up SR or white interior.
I am not mad about them being late on my window I figured I would get my car in March but based on the wording on the website they are behind so I don't see them over complicating things until they get a handle on that. No need to add more options to make them even more behind on other people's windows.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes. Only reason to introduce cheaper configurations would be for PR. They could still give preference to people with higher config.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
ummgood
Member
What does early 2018 mean? It could be April, May, maybe even June and they really aren't violating the estimate. For Dec-Feb "First Production" people would assume that they would have their car by the end of Feb unless they are late.
I have Early '18 (was supposed to be Jan-Mar) and I take it to mean March/april as the first group ends in Feb like you said + I think it says for those configuring right now that AWD will be available in the Spring. So I just can't see how they think early means "June" when June is the start of summer....and nobody respond with that "June is still technically Spring" crap. No, it's not. Not by schools and everyone who plans a summer family vacation trip
One possibility is that Tesla will release the SR Model 3 + PUP for $40K soon because they can't produce finished battery packs fast enough. Maybe there is extra Fremont factory capacity producing Model 3s that are just parked in a lot, waiting for battery pack production to catch up. I don't know if it's true but it's possible. In that case the PUP for $5K will be required, but you can choose from either battery, SR or LR.
Maybe they will launch that on April 1st at beginning of Q2, so that Q1 orders are kept low enough for US EV tax credit reasons. Just guessing.
Maybe they will launch that on April 1st at beginning of Q2, so that Q1 orders are kept low enough for US EV tax credit reasons. Just guessing.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
June is not early - that is Mid
Anyway, I'm sure there are delays involved. So if I can get to config one by July, all is fine.
BTW, I should note - there is probably a team of people in Tesla now working hard to get the SR cars by "early" 2018. Their reviews and bonuses etc depend on them delivering on this. Unless they are pulled out - they will finish their project as fast as they can
ℬête Noire
Active Member
First, thank you to Troy and the people that put the effort into this estimator! I understand it's something of a guess but I'll take it as is.
Second, I'd like to see the discussion around the consensus of the Tax Credit estimate of Tesla hitting the 200K vehicle mark in April? My understanding from other sources last Fall that Tesla was likely to break that 200K mark this month. This is quite pertinent for me as I'm a morning of non-owner that reserved the morning of Apr 1, 2016, so I'm really on the bubble whether or not I will get an LR in my driveway by Jun 30th. ((Yes, I want an LR anyway. I might consider an D but I lack the details right now to make a decision on that.))
I'm new here (first post!) and haven't yet found the relevant conversation via the search engine or rolling back about 30 pages in this thread. Could someone please point in a helpful direction for me?
Thank you.
Second, I'd like to see the discussion around the consensus of the Tax Credit estimate of Tesla hitting the 200K vehicle mark in April? My understanding from other sources last Fall that Tesla was likely to break that 200K mark this month. This is quite pertinent for me as I'm a morning of non-owner that reserved the morning of Apr 1, 2016, so I'm really on the bubble whether or not I will get an LR in my driveway by Jun 30th. ((Yes, I want an LR anyway. I might consider an D but I lack the details right now to make a decision on that.))
I'm new here (first post!) and haven't yet found the relevant conversation via the search engine or rolling back about 30 pages in this thread. Could someone please point in a helpful direction for me?
Thank you.
PJFW8
Red Menace may hurt me
Keep in mind that Tesla has recently diverted a large number of S and X’s to the export markets. The 200,000 threshold is for US deliveries. The $7500 credit should be available through September 31, 2018.First, thank you to Troy and the people that put the effort into this estimator! I understand it's something of a guess but I'll take it as is.
Second, I'd like to see the discussion around the consensus of the Tax Credit estimate of Tesla hitting the 200K vehicle mark in April? My understanding from other sources last Fall that Tesla was likely to break that 200K mark this month. This is quite pertinent for me as I'm a morning of non-owner that reserved the morning of Apr 1, 2016, so I'm really on the bubble whether or not I will get an LR in my driveway by Jun 30th. ((Yes, I want an LR anyway. I might consider an D but I lack the details right now to make a decision on that.))
I'm new here (first post!) and haven't yet found the relevant conversation via the search engine or rolling back about 30 pages in this thread. Could someone please point in a helpful direction for me?
Thank you.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
I understood the former, it is evidence of the latter efforts that's the crucial part I was missing. Tesla is in control enough to game the system of course, so if there really is that much non-US demand to tank domestic sales enough while maintaining their overall sales I suppose they could see it as being worth the effort. I had not expected that. Thanks for the quick answer.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Er, that's backwards. I knew about the latter, that it was US delivers only. I hadn't known there was enough slack to be had to divert enough units to non-US markets and still hit their sales targets.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Wishful thinking and highly unlikely ...
The ROW Model S/X delivery schedule is well documented and will have a negligible impact on the massive Model 3 delivery ramp.
Calculations change all the time. Many things have changed since the last fall. At that time Tesla was saying they would reach 5000/week Model 3 production by the end of Q4 2017. See the video here. A few months later they postponed that to the end of Q1 2018 and a few months after that to the end of Q2 2018. See the news article here. Around July and Aug 2017, 200K was expected to be this month. Then it got pushed to the end of March, then to mid-April and now to mid-May. Here is the latest:
At the end of 2017, I'm calculating 161,955 S/X/3. The count to 200K starts on 1 Jan 2010. I have calculated that 590 Roadsters should be included. That brings the US total to 162,545 at the end of 2017 including S/X/3/Roadster. InsideEVs estimates 159,671 without the Roadster. You have to add up the numbers here if you want to see their 159,671 total. If we add 590 Roadsters we get 160,261 at the end of 2017. The estimates are pretty close. I don't know which one is more accurate.
In Q1 2018, I estimate 13,100 S/X and 12,200 Model 3 deliveries which bring the total to 187,845 based on my calculation. Therefore 200K in Q2 2018 is pretty much guaranteed. That means $7,500 will last for deliveries until 30 Sep 2018.
Two weeks ago I was expecting 18K Model 3 deliveries in Q1 2018. Now I'm expecting 12K. Why? Because we are collecting VINs from Model 3 buyers and that's what the data shows now. See the last few charts here. To summarize, the current calculations show Tesla will hit 200K US sales on 19 May 2018. Any date in Q2 2018 means $7,500 will last for deliveries until 30 Sep 2018. You can check out the last few columns here if you want to see the latest information in the future.
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Dr. J
Active Member
You are correct in substance, but...
- 30 days has September, April, June, and November. When short February's done. All the rest have 31...
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