Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Big Dog]

My guess looking at who can & who can't configure - people who booked till 12:00 noon can configure. Not the ones after 12, like me.

Not quite. I reserved before noon, and still no Configure page.

 

[GDNTX]

You need to enter online because you reserved online on the 31st. The Estimator corrects the time zone differences for in-store reservations on day 1. Let's assume you enter 31st March 2016 and in-store and one of these reservation times:

10:00 am Pacific Time
10:00 am Mountain Time
10:00 am Central Time
10:00 am Eastern Time

In each of these 4 cases, your place in the reservation queue will be the same. Why? Because it's fairer this way. Otherwise, line-waiters in Eastern states would be in front of the queue just because of their time zone. I assumed Tesla would do the right thing.

Thanks Troy - I know you know this data better than most anyone, but here is my example. This still doesn't look right to me the way the adjustments for time zones works out. (And I'm not sure they will level the time zones like you say -  always takes reservations first in the queue regardless of time zone - so it's anyones guess).

I did reserve online at 21:30 Central or 9:30 PM, the first estimator below. I put in a sample right next to my reservation as though I had reserved IN STORE an hour earlier, 20:30 or 8:30 PM Central. The online reservation actually shows it will have priority in line ahead of the Instore an hour earlier. For my sake I like that, but don't figure I'll really be ahead of someone that reserved In Store in the same time zone before me. Is this how you really intend the estimator to work?

 

[ℬête Noire]

So far, 66 non-owners have reported receiving an invite today and 28 are from California. Considering that about half of Teslas in the US are sold in California, this looks correct. Line waiters from Eastern states are not in the front of the invite list just because of their time zone. Each number on the map represents 1 invite. Ignore the numbers.

Hmm, I followed a link off to some ---- message board earlier today. (EDIT: Here it is.) There was a non-owner line waiter in (EDIT:Houston), TX that had gotten his invite. I don't have an account there, maybe someone with an account there (I saw at least one familiar avatar) could spread the word to get you a larger sample?

 

[Reciprocity]

It seems line waiters are getting invites over online across the country. They might not be prioritizing West coast as much now and just basing it on who waited in line longest (first). Pretty good at to do it at this point. Shouldn't matter where you were when you got in line. Wish they could do that world wide, but [strike]probably [/strike] not realistic.

 

[EVNow]

Not quite. I reserved before noon, and still no Configure page.

What time ?

 

[Arizona Frank]

FINALLY!!!!!!!!!

THANKS TROY!

I posted a thread seeking owner advice on 02/18 - regarding purchasing a 2012 signature edition - as I was tired of waiting and getting bumped. Thankfully I listened to this forum and current owners advice to wait.

I used the delivery estimator 2.0 to try and get more patience

The Estimator I configured with the 3LR - Mountain time of 10:30am - non-owner
Results = config email 03/02 & delivery of 04/05

I am day one 03/31/16 reservation in Scottsdale AZ - #42 in line that morning at the Scottsdale Fashion square
I am a non-owner

I received my email to configure at 4:44pm today & I have completed my order

says 3-6 week delivery

I am on cloud 9 & can't wait to join the Tesla OWNERS!

 

[AMIYY4YOU]

Non-owner, east coast, Boston, MA store - first person who reserved and I got my invite earlier today.

Spent a lot of time thinking about it. I really just can't justify paying an extra $9k for extended battery and an additional $5k for the premium upgrades - it's just not worth an additional $14k to get it sooner.. If the Dual motor option woudl be an extra $4k I would think that actually IS worth it, but for getting 30% more battery for an extra 26% cost is just not worth it to me given my typical use case. The premium upgrades are certainly NOT worth $5k - their sound system seemed pretty standard to be honest (and I work in the Automotive electronics/infotainment industry). Don't get me wrong, I still LOVE Tesla and their mission and fully intend to buy either the SR or SR Dual motor. I just really hope it comes sooner than later. I think far fewer people will get the first production LR units than they anticipate which hopefully means that AWD and SR models will start delivering earlier than anticipated.

Anyone have thoughts on this??

 

[lupend88]

Non-owner, east coast, Boston, MA store - first person who reserved and I got my invite earlier today.

Spent a lot of time thinking about it. I really just can't justify paying an extra $9k for extended battery and an additional $5k for the premium upgrades - it's just not worth an additional $14k to get it sooner.. If the Dual motor option woudl be an extra $4k I would think that actually IS worth it, but for getting 30% more battery for an extra 26% cost is just not worth it to me given my typical use case. The premium upgrades are certainly NOT worth $5k - their sound system seemed pretty standard to be honest (and I work in the Automotive electronics/infotainment industry). Don't get me wrong, I still LOVE Tesla and their mission and fully intend to buy either the SR or SR Dual motor. I just really hope it comes sooner than later. I think far fewer people will get the first production LR units than they anticipate which hopefully means that AWD and SR models will start delivering earlier than anticipated.

Anyone have thoughts on this??

This is nothing but speculation, but I agree with you in the thought that more non-owners will be waiting for SR/AWD than Tesla anticipates.

Not to say that I mind though, since I will be getting a first production model

 

[insaneoctane]

Those are production sequence numbers. You can't use those to calculate the number of line waiters because many line waiters don't want the Model 3 LR and many owners who are not line-waiters will be included in the production sequence numbers. If you want, you could explain what you wish to calculate and why so I can look into that.

Thanks for the offer....
I'm trying to investigate how long to get through all the US line waiters. It's a finite and relatively small group of enthusiasts probably well represented in this forum and who would love to know that they should all be offered to configure in the next 5 weeks....(Now that we appear to be thru employees and owners). I ran your tool for front of the line (9am) and then just before online orders went live (17:08pm PST). By comparing the number of US reservations, it still appears that there were 12K...where am I going wrong?

US reservations 119,006
Your place on that list 13,278
Owner res after you 9,516
Employee res in US 1,446
Prod seq no in US 24,240
Global prod sequence no 27,430
Configuration 4/13/2018
Production 4/28/2018
Delivery 5/7/2018
Time until delivery 2 months, 15 days
Scenario 1, 99% likely $7,500 until Sep 30, 2018
Scenario 2, 1% likely $7,500 until Dec 31, 2018
Global reservation no 68,000
Global reservation no excl employees & cancellations 56,766
Place on global res list 56,766 / 508,777 = 11.16%
Reservation time you entered 3/31/2016, 7:08 p.m.
Region US

US reservations 119,006
Your place on that list 26
Owner res after you 10,708
Employee res in US 1,446
Prod seq no in US 12,180
Global prod sequence no 12,371
Configuration 2/27/2018
Production 3/14/2018
Delivery 3/23/2018
Time until delivery 1 month, 1 day
Scenario 1, 99% likely $7,500 until Sep 30, 2018
Scenario 2, 1% likely $7,500 until Dec 31, 2018
Global reservation no 3,502
Global reservation no excl employees & cancellations 112
Place on global res list 112 / 508,777 = 0.02%
Reservation time you entered 3/31/2016, 9:08 a.m.
Region US

 

[sreams]

Thanks for the offer....
I'm trying to investigate how long to get through all the US line waiters.

Something that may be helpful in predicting this... The spreadsheet shows 100 non-owner invites today as of this moment. That is over 20% of the non-owner line-waiters from the list (489 total).

EDIT: Make that 108. 22%

 

[Troy]

@insaneoctane. I have looked at the numbers and it looks like the last line waiters will configure between 2-8 April 2018. In the next few days, I plan to update the Estimator. After that update, select Pacific states, 31st March 2016, 19:08 Pacific time, online, non-owner, Model 3 LR and look at the configuration date in the search results.

@GDNTX, thanks. I will look into that later.

 

[suwaneedad]

I think far fewer people will get the first production LR units than they anticipate

So far, 35% deferral rate among the non-owner invitees who are participating in CJ's spreadsheet here. That compares to 30% deferral rate among owner invitees. Presumably the deferral rate will continue to climb over time, as SR becomes closer to reality (although behind AWD). Anyway, we'll know more in the coming weeks as more non-owner invitees log their decisions in CJ's spreadsheet.

 

[EVNow]

I have looked at the numbers and it looks like the last line waiters will configure between 2-8 April 2018.

By line waiters, you mean people who booked instore on 31st, right ?

Looks like everyone who booked in the first hour or 2 (by 11 AM / 12 noon) have been invited. That must have been the largest chunk of line waiters - since not all stores had several hours worth of queue.

My guess is rest of the line waiters will get the invite in March, assuming Tesla will continue to invite once in 15 days.

 

[AMIYY4YOU]

Anyone else have thoughts on whether or not SR battery will become available as soon as AWD vehicles are made? I'm getting an estimate of "Mid 2018" for AWD option but is Tesla still going to prioritize LR -> LR AWD -> SR -> SR AWD?

I'm hoping it's more like LR -> SR AWD -> LR AWD but I doubt that is the case

 

[DarthPierce]

I think the odds of SR AWD coming at the same time as LR AWD are 0.1%. It's virtually certain at this point to be LR -> LR AWD -> SR & SR AWD?

 

[AMIYY4YOU]

I think the odds of SR AWD coming at the same time as LR AWD are 0.1%. It's virtually certain at this point to be LR -> LR AWD -> SR & SR AWD?

Hmm well as long as they don't force you to buy the premium hardware, I would much rather pay $49k for a car with dual motor and long range than $49k for a car with long range and premium HW. Does anyone know the range of how much the dual motor option will cost??

 

[Cintoman]

My guess looking at who can & who can't configure - people who booked till 12:00 noon can configure. Not the ones after 12, like me.

I was a line-waiter non-owner in-store reservation holder. I was ~60 in line at the Dedham, MA store and reserved at 10:43am. As of today (Friday), My MyTesla page is still the same: First Production of Mar-May 2018.

--Cintoman

 

[Cintoman]

Non-owner, east coast, Boston, MA store - first person who reserved and I got my invite earlier today.

Spent a lot of time thinking about it. I really just can't justify paying an extra $9k for extended battery and an additional $5k for the premium upgrades - it's just not worth an additional $14k to get it sooner.. If the Dual motor option woudl be an extra $4k I would think that actually IS worth it, but for getting 30% more battery for an extra 26% cost is just not worth it to me given my typical use case. The premium upgrades are certainly NOT worth $5k

Anyone have thoughts on this??

I hear you. I was a line-waiter in Dedham, MA on 3/31 (around 60th in line), but haven't gotten invited yet. Even if I did, I'm holding off for white interior and SR AWD. I also can't justify the extra $9K for the LR battery. Do I think PUP is worth $5K? Maybe not, but I'm going to be getting it because I do like the items it includes (covered center console, glass roof, heated seats, power controls, etc). I'd much rather use that $9K on the AWD, PUP, and the white interior (if they are going to charge us for that).

--Cintoman

 

[mrtian97]

I just checked my tesla page, now it’s showing for Dual motor is available with 220 or 310 miles, my time is Mid 2018. Seems the SR AWD will be available in Mid 2018 also

 

[EVNow]

I was a line-waiter non-owner in-store reservation holder. I was ~60 in line at the Dedham, MA store and reserved at 10:43am. As of today (Friday), My MyTesla page is still the same: First Production of Mar-May 2018.

Yes - I see some exceptions, with some who reserved before 12 noon not getting - and a few who reserved after 12 noon getting the invite. We don't know whether the exceptions are by design or because of a bug.