Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation [Car announced 04.23.2024]

[Destiny1701]

Nobody is doing anywhere near a 1.40 0-30 mph run 100% stock in the old car. 1.50 0-30 mph is about the best you could hope for 100% stock in the old car. 1.19 0-30 mph in the new car would be "INSANE". That would be a monumental difference. That is what a slow Plaid does.

And this is without any ludicrous update one day?? Yee haw!!

 

[Destiny1701]

So, I'm adding comparison between new M3P vs old M3P vs MSLR 2021.

Interesting.
What I find odd is the 90, 100 and 110 mph comparison from new M3P to LR.

At 100mph, the gap is .13 seconds apart
But at 110mph, gap is .10?
Then at 120mph, the gap widens huge to 1.1 sec?

I’d think the 110mph would see additional drop off on the M3P no?

 

[wook]

And this is without any ludicrous update one day?? Yee haw!!

I'm not sure what an OTA update is going to do if the battery is the limiting factor

 

[noam23]

Interesting.
What I find odd is the 90, 100 and 110 mph comparison from new M3P to LR.

At 100mph, the gap is .13 seconds apart
But at 110mph, gap is .10?
Then at 120mph, the gap widens huge to 1.1 sec?

I’d think the 110mph would see additional drop off on the M3P no?

This is quantification from video using video edit software, so there could be a few ms error here and there.

 

[Gasaraki]

At this point they should probably just switch the US LR back to the Panasonic battery. There's such a glut of model Ys now that it's not like they really need to save those batteries for the Y. Then maybe eliminate the RWD model altogether or use a similar strategy to the Y where there's a long range RWD with the Panasonic battery.

I mean, don't you think they want to do that? The Panasonic battery gets them the $7500 rebate which will bring in more customers. They just can't make enough for both the Y LR, Performance and the 3 Performance.

 

[cptnslo]

Still waiting for the guy to post up the 1/4mi with the draggy he was supposed to get. Hopefully it wasn’t a let down and that’s why he hasn’t posted lol

 

[Lolo780]

Still waiting for the guy to post up the 1/4mi with the draggy he was supposed to get. Hopefully it wasn’t a let down and that’s why he hasn’t posted lol

Men in black got him.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793633291469303950

Be sure to install the aeros to decrease your 1/4 times

 

[terranx]

I mean, don't you think they want to do that? The Panasonic battery gets them the $7500 rebate which will bring in more customers. They just can't make enough for both the Y LR, Performance and the 3 Performance.

I think the sales have gone down enough that they probably have the capability and I suspect it will happen before the end of the year. It just takes time to get all the logistics to work out, and they don’t want to reduce quarterly sales even further by announcing anything and having people wait for the rebate.

 

[Knightshade]

I think the sales have gone down enough that they probably have the capability and I suspect it will happen before the end of the year.

I don't think that's the case at all-Model Y sales were up in Q1 2024 in the US (by a small amount).

https://insideevs.com/news/716123/tesla-model-y-one-third/

It was Model 3 that saw a huge decline- and much of that was because they didn't produce hardly any Model 3s in the first 2 months of Q1 due to Fremont fumbling the retooling/ramp at the factory.


Y gets all the US supply of 2170s except for those going into the Performance Model 3.

There are none left over for the other trims of 3.

The original plan was Y would've been running on structural pack 4680 by now freeing up those 2170s for 3, but that didn't work out.

 

[terranx]

I don't think that's the case at all-Model Y sales were up in Q1 2024 in the US (by a small amount).

https://insideevs.com/news/716123/tesla-model-y-one-third/

It was Model 3 that saw a huge decline- and much of that was because they didn't produce hardly any Model 3s in the first 2 months of Q1 due to Fremont fumbling the retooling/ramp at the factory.


Y gets all the US supply of 2170s except for those going into the Performance Model 3.

There are none left over for the other trims of 3.

The original plan was Y would've been running on structural pack 4680 by now freeing up those 2170s for 3, but that didn't work out.

Those numbers aren’t sourced from Tesla. The piling up inventory of the model Y paints a different picture.

4680 was never going to replace the 2170.

 

[Knightshade]

Those numbers aren’t sourced from Tesla.

They're sourced from vehicle registration data. Which should be very very accurate.

Do you have any data to dispute the #?

The piling up inventory of the model Y paints a different picture.

<citation required>

Tesla publishes worldwide inventory data. Do you have US specific? Anecdotal reports from various delivery places also suggest a surge in buying since the 0.99% Y rate too.

4680 was never going to replace the 2170.

It explicitly was in the Y, that's why the structural pack existed- and Tesla even sold a model using it for a while.

But they failed to ramp volume on it and ending up needing to move what 4680 production they DID have to Cybertruck and move all trims of the Y back to 2170.

Note they're adding a lot of 4680 production lines by end of this year so it's possible they'll have enough "spare" to start putting them in Ys again by next year and free up 2170s, but not likely before then earliest.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

They're sourced from vehicle registration data. Which should be very very accurate.

Do you have any data to dispute the #?





<citation required>

Tesla publishes worldwide inventory data. Do you have US specific? Anecdotal reports from various delivery places also suggest a surge in buying since the 0.99% Y rate too.




It explicitly was in the Y, that's why the structural pack existed- and Tesla even sold a model using it for a while.

But they failed to ramp volume on it and ending up needing to move what 4680 production they DID have to Cybertruck and move all trims of the Y back to 2170.

Note they're adding a lot of 4680 production lines by end of this year so it's possible they'll have enough "spare" to start putting them in Ys again by next year and free up 2170s, but not likely before then earliest.

Model Y 4680 was an absolutely terrible EV. Charging curve was abysmal and the 4680 battery in that particular car offered no real world advantages.

 

[Knightshade]

Model Y 4680 was an absolutely terrible EV. Charging curve was abysmal and the 4680 battery in that particular car offered no real world advantages.

I wasn't arguing results, I was discussing the original plan (that didn't work out, and now leaves Tesla without any 2170s to put in most 3s)

 

[Jeremy3292]

The parts catalog has been updated with all the performance parts, like wheels.

I tried to place an order for the 19” rims in the app through a service request, but they canceled my appt and said they are not available yet. I pushed back and they said they don’t have an ETA yet on availability. Worth a shot!

 

[mpgxsvcd]

I wasn't arguing results, I was discussing the original plan (that didn't work out, and now leaves Tesla without any 2170s to put in most 3s)

I doubt they will ever use a 4680 battery in the Model Y ever again.

 

[Gasaraki]

I think the sales have gone down enough that they probably have the capability and I suspect it will happen before the end of the year. It just takes time to get all the logistics to work out, and they don’t want to reduce quarterly sales even further by announcing anything and having people wait for the rebate.

I don't get where people are coming up with that sales are down. Maybe down for a quarter but the Model Y is the best selling vehicle in the world and in the US they already sold 110,000 units by April this year. People might wait for the refresh next year but the Model 3 Performance is going to eat up all the extra battery. M3P are already seeing a few months backlog.

 

[Knightshade]

I doubt they will ever use a 4680 battery in the Model Y ever again.

The already announced 4680 production lines for end of year will exceed the targeted Cybertruck production max by quite a bit-- what do you imagine Tesla intends to do with all those cells?

Note also- CT is using a 2nd gen 4680 with better specs, the one in the earlier Ys was Gen1.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

The already announced 4680 production lines for end of year will exceed the targeted Cybertruck production max by quite a bit-- what do you imagine Tesla intends to do with all those cells?

Note also- CT is using a 2nd gen 4680 with better specs, the one in the earlier Ys was Gen1.

Make more CyberTrucks than they predicted perhaps?

 

[Knightshade]

Make more CyberTrucks than they predicted perhaps?

They'd have to build additional production lines for that.

Makes a lot more sense for them to go into Ys to free up $7500 credit eligible 2170s to go in 3s (which were never designed to take 4680s)