Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[dhanson865]

Invites to owners are almost done. To see the latest data click HERE, wait a few seconds for filters to kick in, then look at Col H (Reservation date) and Col K (Invite date) as you scroll down. Some owners who reserved last month have received invites.
In a few days, Tesla will need more people to configure but this doesn't necessarily mean invites to non-owners. It could be one of the following:

• Add white interior to the configurator
• Add AWD to the configurator
• Send out invites to Canada
• Send out invites to line-waiters in the US

What the heck is a line waiter if it isn't an owner or non owner. Is there some third state of ownership I've never heard of?

If you are a "line waiter" who is an owner you already got an invite. If you are a "line waiter" that isn't an owner then you aren't an owner.

Although your post is factually true, I will suggest that if Tesla picks anything other than the last bullet mutiny will ensue...

Am I insane or do you see the last bullet as being non owners in a "this doesn't necessarily mean invites to non-owners" situation.

 

[RTPEV]

What the heck is a line waiter if it isn't an owner or non owner. Is there some third state of ownership I've never heard of?

If you are a "line waiter" who is an owner you already got an invite. If you are a "line waiter" that isn't an owner then you aren't an owner.

I think he just used that term to mean non-owners that waited in line. Would have been sufficient to just say non-owners, but clearly they will start with those that waited in line.

 

[Skidmark]

The spreadsheet isn't working for me to update - when I click the link to update my existing entry, I get a form that's completely blank and I don't want to enter data again in case it messes things up. Could someone possibly update it for me?

Skidmark - Invited to configure on 2/14/2018, configured on 2/14/2018, no VIN yet
Skidmark (2) - No Change, No invitation to configure yet even though I am a current owner of 2 Teslas

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Skidmark. We have set the form to accept one entry per user. If you see a blank form, that means you are logged in to a different account. Use the other one to edit or submit a brand new entry and let me know so I can delete your old form entry.

 

[insaneoctane]

2 comments.

1. My bet is that the next wave of invites will include the first line- waiting non-owners. Just my hunch.
2. White interior will not be offered any sooner than Q3. Tesla's Model 3 poor gross margins are a real financial issue. They dragged down Tesla's composite vehicle gross margin to 15% even though the MX and MS margins were probably at 25% and significantly higher volume. They absolutely have to fix this and can't until they get the factory at/above 5K per week. Once this happens, then we can talk about options that ultimately (even if temporarily) slow things down . PS- I want white, so I am not thrilled about this reality.

 

[Skidmark]

Hi, @Skidmark. We have set the form to accept one entry per user. If you see a blank form, that means you are logged in to a different account. Use the other one to edit or submit a brand new entry and let me know so I can delete your old form entry.

Hi Troy, I resubmitted all my data as a new entry...you may need to consolidate with my old entries since the new form doesn't allow the old delivery estimates. Thank you for this!!

 

[Troy]

@Skidmark, thanks. I deleted your old form entry. By the way, we don't use old delivery estimates anymore. Cheers

 

[DarthPierce]

An interesting data point:

I have a colleague who is a former SpaceX employee (reserved while SpaceX employee). His reservation is from March 24th 2016 (1 week pre-reveal). As of this morning, his estimator shows:

First Production: Feb-April Standard range Late 2018 AWD: Late 2018

I treat him as my personal canary in the coal mine for non-owner invites.

 

[dm33]

Although your post is factually true, I will suggest that if Tesla picks anything other than the last bullet mutiny will ensue...

Why is that any worse than what they're already doing. They're pushing base model reservations to the end of the line and inventing new options to cut in line in front of people waiting for two years.

 

[smak]

I am not as optimistic as you guys are on the non-owner delivery date.

Here is my rational:

There have been 614 invites to owners reported to the spreadsheet.
488 of those are to owners with 3/31 reservations.
126 are to owners with reservations after 3/31.

If you believe that at least half the reservations are after 3/31, than at least half of the owner reservations are after 3/31.
For all the owner reservations to be complete, doesn't the number of invites to owners with reservations after 3/31 have to roughly equal the number of invites to owners with 3/31 reservations ?

I think that the owner reservations made on 3/31 will be completed with this last batch, but we do have a few more batches to go before non-owner invites.

CJ

Why would somebody who made a reservation in February 2018 get their invite if they haven't exhausted the rest of non 3/31 owners?

 

[N8Howell33]

Can someone add me to the list. Got invite to configure yesterday. 1/24/18 reservation under bro in laws account (he owns an X and an S).

 

[chojn1]

Why would somebody who made a reservation in February 2018 get their invite if they haven't exhausted the rest of non 3/31 owners?

@smak

That is a good question. But you have to address that to Tesla not us. We don't make the decisions, we only observe and report. There are some 3/31 owners being invited now, and they have been inviting owners who reserved after 3/31 since December.

 

[suwaneedad]

Why would somebody who made a reservation in February 2018 get their invite if they haven't exhausted the rest of non 3/31 owners?

@smak somewhere on the forum today I saw a PSA from an owner who'd not been invited to configure despite being a very early reservationist. He called Tesla and it turned out that for some reason he was not tagged as an owner in the rez database. It was fixed quickly and he then configured and is on his way. I don't know what "calling Tesla" really means but presumably you do?!

 

[sreams]

I am not as optimistic as you guys are on the non-owner delivery date.

Here is my rational:

There have been 614 invites to owners reported to the spreadsheet.
488 of those are to owners with 3/31 reservations.
126 are to owners with reservations after 3/31.

If you believe that at least half the reservations are after 3/31, than at least half of the owner reservations are after 3/31.
For all the owner reservations to be complete, doesn't the number of invites to owners with reservations after 3/31 have to roughly equal the number of invites to owners with 3/31 reservations ?

I think that the owner reservations made on 3/31 will be completed with this last batch, but we do have a few more batches to go before non-owner invites.

CJ

That would suggest that Telsa is ignoring reservation order. There are owners who were invited in the last batch that didn't reserve until a week ago. This is why I think you may not be correct about this.

Edit: I see others have responded with the same thought.

 

[sreams]

Something is up with the sorting now. If I choose to sort the spreadsheet by invite date, it sorts it by reservation date instead. Didn't used to do that.

 

[Warbird]

Invited to order my Model S today, reserved July 10, 2017 as a non-owner, became an owner Sep 24th, 2017 of a new Model S.
Holding for the white interior, one of which was spotted in the wild two days ago in the Bay Area, as reported by Electrek,
Tesla Model 3 with new white interior spotted in the wild

PS. I have not added to the spreadsheet.

 

[chojn1]

That would suggest that Telsa is ignoring reservation order. There are owners who were invited in the last batch that didn't reserve until a week ago. This is why I think you may not be correct about this.

Edit: I see others have responded with the same thought.

@sreams,

When I get a complex math problem, I like to approach it multiple ways to check my answer.
Here is another approach to this one:

500k global reservations
250k US reservations
7% owner reservations = 17.5k owner reservations
70% configuration rate = 12.25k cars

Tesla reported delivery:
July 2017 - 30
Sep 2017 - 222
Dec 2017 - 1542

They would have to make and deliver over 5000 cars a month for the last 2 months to be finished in Feb.

Still think they will be finished with owners in February?

There are owners in this last batch that reserved on 3/31. Considering all those owners who reserved after 3/31 and already have their car, makes this point irrelevant.

I could be wrong. Tesla could also start with non-owners before finishing the owners, We'll find out in a couple of weeks.

 

[smak]

You're missing the fact that there's a one month delay in ordering and picking up.

So it's not finished in Feb, it's finished in March. 10k cars by March sure sounds reasonable.

Also, your configuration rate is based on Tesla super fans, who are on these boards. I'd bet it's less.

 

[Warbird]

So, I am waiting for the white interior. Anyone know how long I have to not pick "Get Started" nor "Hold My place"?

 

[RTPEV]

There are owners in this last batch that reserved on 3/31. Considering all those owners who reserved after 3/31 and already have their car, makes this point irrelevant.

Sure would like to know the story of these users. Did they recently become Tesla owners? Was their account somehow not tagged correctly and through part of an audit (or maybe a phone call) Tesla recently cleaned that up? Did they mis-enter the data in the spreadsheet because 3/31 was the default value for "reserved on"?