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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet
- Thread starter RubberToe
- Start date
This graph is not quite accurate because it does not take into account all the folks who are currently waiting for a VIN. I know theres a huge bunch of us who are 6 weeks deep who configured on February 22nd, that would skew the graph a bit.Based on spreadsheet data for the recent weeks, specifically VA seems to be on the longer end, currently 44-days for Config to VIN.
View attachment 291821
Waiting4M3
Active Member
CJ, thanks for the hard work in putting the spreadsheet together. I used the VIN assignment data in the sheet, and did some modeling based on a hypothesis by @schonelucht that the increment of the max reported VIN could reflect line speed. I think I might have a method that can come close, some highlights of the model results:
- Daily rate ~250-280 for last week (since 3/30)
- 7 day total from 3/27-4/2 is 1803, 217 lower than actual, still lagging a little
- Total production in Q1 up to 3/31 is 10,105, ~340 off, or 1+ days of production at end of Q1 speed.
They probably got sick of all the complaints about how long it takes to get a VIN and delivery! Everyone expects to be the outlier who gets the VIN in two weeks. One theory is that the first round of invites was needed early to make sure they had the right mix of products. Now that they have some data, they can plan their production better and invite a bit later. Just a theory though.
chojn1
Member
@Waiting4M3,
Very nice how you made that work!
Just curious about your choice of the max reported VIN rather than the mean.
Seems to me that in a normal distribution, the average would better represent the sample than either extreme.
You would get less fluctuation in your trend line although at the expense of decrease sensitivity to sudden change.
CJ
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I agreed that max VIN is quite noisy, especially in Jan and Feb where the max VIN can jump up and then stay the same for weeks. Lately with higher production rate, the max VIN seem to move up more regularly, and may be more usable. I've also been thinking about avg VIN but it doesn't seem to work as well, see a long winded background below.
@schonelucht hypothesized in this post that the max VIN gives some indication for line speed, and the min VIN is due to cars needing rework, and an average VIN is an indicator of overall production speed.
I had a slightly different view regarding the average. I felt that 2 things are at play:
- the distribution is not normal, that there is a skew to the lower VINs
- the impact of the rework is already reflected in the max VIN, since each rework car takes up a spot in the production line, preventing a new VIN from getting started, so using avg VIN may be double counting its effect.
When I tried my fitting yesterday I tried both max and avg, and max seem to fit better with actual production rate. The fit using avg VIN gave too low of production, only 8133 for Q1 total. I suspect that factor #2 above may still be valid, that rework is already baked into max VIN, and avg VIN is double counting the rework effect. @schonelucht's 2nd try showed that median VIN gives a sightly higher rate, maybe median can work better, but I was using Excel which doesn't give median stats in a pivot table, and I was too lazy to do anything more complex than pivot tables
Non-T- Owner,
Reserved in-store on 3/31/2016
Invited to configure - 3/26/2018
Configured 4/1/2018
midnight silver, 18", LR, EAP.
The wait is unbearable....
Reserved in-store on 3/31/2016
Invited to configure - 3/26/2018
Configured 4/1/2018
midnight silver, 18", LR, EAP.
The wait is unbearable....
Non-Owner, line waiter
Reserved in store 3/31/16 10:13 am
Southern California: Orange County
Invite to config: 2/22/18
Configured: 2/22/18
Vin assigned: 4/6/18 104xx
Delivery scheduled 4/12/18
Red/Aero/EAP
Data updated on sheet
Reserved in store 3/31/16 10:13 am
Southern California: Orange County
Invite to config: 2/22/18
Configured: 2/22/18
Vin assigned: 4/6/18 104xx
Delivery scheduled 4/12/18
Red/Aero/EAP
Data updated on sheet
I just got an invite yesterday (April 6, 2018) at 6:24 PM ET (Virginia) for long range option, to be delivered in 3-6 weeks. I'm a non-owner, line waiter on March 31, 2016 at Tyson's Corner Mall in Northern VA. Unfortunately, I'm going to wait for at least dual motor all wheel drive, but also wanted to see what's the pricing on performance version. I would've selected the expected month of this year, but I see that they don't have an option for performance version to check off on.
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Invite yesterday (April 6, 2018). No e-mail, but was able to configure. I am a non-owner, line waiter on March 31, 2016 at King of Prussia, PA, around 10:45am. Configured a LR, Premium, with AutoPilot, in Midnight Silver Metallic to be delivered in 3-6 weeks. I'm not going to put it in the spreadsheet (never had put anything in before, but if someone wants to do it please go for it). Let the wait for a VIN begin!
oldtrip
Member
Invited yesterday (4/6), saw it online just before my wife said she got an e-mail (she's the alternate contact), about 3:00 pm. Configured today (4/7).
I waited in line on 3/31/16, reserved about 12:25 PST in Bellevue, WA. It was a really long line, in both directions.
After considering deferring for dual motor, I caved and ordered: White, aeros and EAP.
Back to waiting, but with more intent and purpose now.
I waited in line on 3/31/16, reserved about 12:25 PST in Bellevue, WA. It was a really long line, in both directions.
After considering deferring for dual motor, I caved and ordered: White, aeros and EAP.
Back to waiting, but with more intent and purpose now.
chojn1
Member
So after the excursion north of the border, Tesla came back to the US for the last batch of invites.
Approximately 4000 invites went out last week mostly to 3/31 non-owners with a tiny portion to owners who reserved in February 2018.
Assuming no more curve balls and an uninterrupted production ramp, we can make a few projections:
1) All 3/31 in store line waiters will receive their invites within the next two to three weeks.
2) All previous owners, regardless of when they made their reservations, will receive their invites by the end of the month.
3) All 3/31 online reservations will be invited by the middle of May. Interesting that some in this group already got to jump the queue in some states like California and Florida. EM mentioned in one of his tweets that this will be corrected.
I reserve the option to alter my projections should Tesla deviate from their current invite pattern and schedule.
Happy Monday everybody!
CJ
Approximately 4000 invites went out last week mostly to 3/31 non-owners with a tiny portion to owners who reserved in February 2018.
Assuming no more curve balls and an uninterrupted production ramp, we can make a few projections:
1) All 3/31 in store line waiters will receive their invites within the next two to three weeks.
2) All previous owners, regardless of when they made their reservations, will receive their invites by the end of the month.
3) All 3/31 online reservations will be invited by the middle of May. Interesting that some in this group already got to jump the queue in some states like California and Florida. EM mentioned in one of his tweets that this will be corrected.
I reserve the option to alter my projections should Tesla deviate from their current invite pattern and schedule.
Happy Monday everybody!
CJ
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