Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Tigers]

It makes sense they would try to make a refresh car before the earning call

At this point - there's no point and it doesn't matter. It's literally two days away, analysts are aware no S/X refreshed vehicles were delivered during the provided timeline and were updated with the letter that they were at "beginning stages of ramping production"...I expect there to be one question about it, but there is zero chance they are delivering a car this weekend. I think there's zero chance they deliver a car in May.

Also - love how Tesla is scared of the Chinese government and has 1) had serious talks about their quality with government officials and 2) apologized for their customer service.

Over here in America, for the people that had their tax dollars spent to save them? Not a god damn word. Haha, love it.

 

[sflgator]

At this point - there's no point and it doesn't matter. It's literally two days away, analysts are aware no S/X refreshed vehicles were delivered during the provided timeline and were updated with the letter that they were at "beginning stages of ramping production"...I expect there to be one question about it, but there is zero chance they are delivering a car this weekend. I think there's zero chance they deliver a car in May.

Also - love how Tesla is scared of the Chinese government and has 1) had serious talks about their quality with government officials and 2) apologized for their customer service.

Over here in America, for the people that had their tax dollars spent to save them? Not a god damn word. Haha, love it.

China = larger potential market.

 

[RMG007]

Over here in America, for the people that had their tax dollars spent to save them? Not a god damn word. Haha, love it.

??

 

[RMG007]

SW issue (new HW needs 9.0, auto-shifting not working right, etc): they would be building cars and probably shipping them to distro hubs, then holding them until the SW is fixed

This. But, Tesla has Distro Hubs??

 

[Tigers]

China = larger potential market.

Excuses nothing. Also - anyone else here a Rivian reservation holder? I feel like they are trying to one-up Tesla on everything. I get an email about every two weeks with something new. Rivian Guides (very nice), charging network, insurance, and yesterday, 7 day 1000 mile return policy.

Pretty funny - but it feels like Rivian is putting a foot forward better than any other company since Tesla's initial days. No legacy OEM nor Lucid have gotten to this point.

If Rivian can launch relatively solid vehicles that don't have an insane amount of bugs or issues, they are going to grow rapidly.

@RMG007 - Blog | Tesla

 

[snellenr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1385887015774867457

you heard it here first gents. lies can be beautiful.

Good grief - Elon’s taken up golfing...

 

[Hayseed_MS]

This. But, Tesla has Distro Hubs??

He meant either Destro or distribution

 

[jbrowdy]

OK, bored, so here's my list of list of possible reasons for the delay and their likelihood:

• Yoke steering: non-issue, NHTSA will not block it ahead of time, worst case they ship with round wheels and replace
• Chip shortage: 1) Elon would blame the supplier like he did with the 3/Y shutdown, 2) if supplies are constrained, they would be building some cars
• SW issue (new HW needs 9.0, auto-shifting not working right, etc): they would be building cars and probably shipping them to distro hubs, then holding them until the SW is fixed
• Other supply chain issue (windows, sensors, displays, etc): possible, global supply chains are pretty hosed, but it would need to be something common to the LR and Plaid otherwise they would be building something
• Production line issue (robot issue, facilities issue, etc): maybe, not sure if we have seen a car of the main line -- assuming all the mules came off the old S-line
• Competitive pressure: possible, last minute tweaking of design because the competition is closer than expected--Cd, range, performance, features
• Design issue: possible, testing as revealed some fundamental design issue common to the LR and Plaid that needs to be diagnosed and resolved

Missing anything, disagree?

Ok, here's a crazy one: Elon happened to make the refresh announcement right around the same time that he was rounding the bag at second base and heading to third in discussions to sell Tesla to Company X. Right after the refresh announcement, he found himself on third and realized he might just be able to make it home. He decided not to complicate the deal by investing in infrastructure, personnel, software development that may not return his investment in said infrastructure. Besides, Company X realizes you win more games by playing small ball (selling 3's and Y's) than swinging for the fences (selling high margin S's and X's), so Tesla is in a holding pattern as they try to appease the buyer. Elon is remaining silent until it is clear that the deal is done (or not done), as he can't say anything that might tip anyone off.

While this has close to a zero percent chance of reflecting reality, I thought it might be fun to bat this one around. Who do you think Company X is? Will this merger/acquisition solve Tesla's growing pains (no PR department, decaying customer service, quality issues on vehicles, huge hiccups on supply chain management, etc.)....?

 

[Ohmster]

Over here in America, for the people that had their tax dollars spent to save them? Not a god damn word. Haha, love it.

I don’t understand what it is you are saying here.

 

[epotter]

Well I enjoy catching up on this thread 4-5 times/hour, when I hit refresh on the Tesla Account page* but I'm also not especially patient, and the wall charger looked so sad and lonely in the garage, so I found a used 2018 Model S at a local used car megamart and got it. My plan is to pay it down enough that it'll be useful as a trade-in when the refreshes do finally start shipping (side bonus: I can stop taking new photos of my old car every month!). I'm in the "probably nothing until fall" camp, which is the only way this basically terrible idea makes sense financially, which means they'll probably start working double shifts tomorrow. You're welcome!

* joking! ...basically

 

[omarsultan]

China = larger potential market.

I keep hearing this, but EVs are also one of the industries that are specifically called out in the "Made in China 2025" strategic initiative, so I cannot see the government allowing a wholly foreign owned company being the dominant player, so the end game have never been clear to me--have happy to be #2 or #3?

This. But, Tesla has Distro Hubs??

Sorry, distribution hubs--the places where they stage cars before they send them to delivery centers

I don’t understand what it is you are saying here.

I think he means the Tesla goes to great lengths to keep the Chinese government happy and stay in the good graces of Chinese consumers and has just established a unit focused on Chinese customer satifaction. Meanwhile, in the US, we consumers cannot get phone calls returned and the government is largely seen as a pest, even though programs like the ATVM loan, federal $7K tax credit and state/local rebates were contributors to Tesla's early success.

 

[omarsultan]

Who do you think Company X is?

Well, with a $700B market cap, the list of companies is pretty short and it would more likely be a merger, not an acquisition.

It does bring up the question of if Elon is looking to exit Tesla in the next couple of years. After delivering the CT, Semi and Roadster in the next 24 months with "feature complete" FSD as a capstone, it would be a good time to move on. SpaceX is heating up, especially since they got the Artemis award, so maybe that is where his heart is these days.

 

[ks1972]

I don’t understand what it is you are saying here.

He is probably talking cat language now

 

[jbrowdy]

Well, with a $700B market cap, the list of companies is pretty short and it would more likely be a merger, not an acquisition.

It does bring up the question of if Elon is looking to exit Tesla in the next couple of years. After delivering the CT, Semi and Roadster in the next 24 months with "feature complete" FSD as a capstone, it would be a good time to move on. SpaceX is heating up, especially since they got the Artemis award, so maybe that is where his heart is these days.

Apple has cash.

 

[EVonly]

Apple has cash.

Apple has approximately $200 billion in cash on hand. Not anywhere near enough to purchase Tesla outright. Tim Cook passed on Tesla at a $50 billon market cap. What makes you think he loves it at $700 billion? When Tesla is worth as much as or more than the sum of every other worldwide automaker combined it doesn’t exactly scream bargain. With Tesla trading at 1,145 times earnings - no one is touching Tesla at current market value.

As of April 2021, the largest ever acquisition was the 1999 takeover of Mannesmann by Vodafone Airtouch plc at $183 billion ($281 billion adjusted for inflation)

To keep Bruce happy - My Model S refresh originally said March 1-31 delivery before it switched to March and now says July. Sold my P90DL in late February and feel like an imbecil.

 

[JackD]

There also seems to be a blue model s refresh at 9:32 in the most recent flyover video.

 

[aerodyne]

It seems we are "Feasting on Scraps"

A few good images of the interior, with a resolution at least as good as the Mid 70's Bigfoot image posted earlier, is what is needed to maintain some sanity here.

Also, I keep a tape measure in my car. If I ever see a refresh stationary, first thing I'm going to do is measure the width between rear tires...

 

[doubleshot]

It seems we are "Feasting on Scraps"

A few good images of the interior, with a resolution at least as good as the Mid 70's Bigfoot image posted earlier, is what is needed to maintain some sanity here.

Also, I keep a tape measure in my car. If I ever see a refresh stationary, first thing I'm going to do is measure the width between rear tires...

Engineer runs up and says hey what the heck are you doing under the car there. (engineer in their head saying "oh crap he's got a tape measure)

 

[doubleshot]

Where's the inspections whisperer? @doubleshot, need some help find record updated buddy!

Haha. My Google foo isn't producing anything right now. There's a few other permits out there but seem very routine and around fire and egress fire permits. All standard. I think the bus bar permit is done, we'll never see an update on that one again. Tool install is prob done as well, but who knows. From other notes this new system has only been in place a short while, there's a ton of comments that refer to checking the legacy system.

If they aren't done, there are a whole lot of other permits in the system that aren't finished. But I don't think that's the issue anymore with the bus bar item.

I'm guessing right now everything is on a quiet time waiting for Monday. We'll find out more in 2 days hopefully

 

[AliJ]

New to the community, new to Tesla, been following with interest, thanks for everybody’s updates. Ordered 2/5. LR MSM, black interior, 21 wheels. MT Kisco NY delivery. Estimated delivery just changed from March to July as well. To be fair to my SA he called me 3 weeks ago, said delays (didn’t know how long) but to stay excited. No question that client communication is generally a bit of a joke given we are talking about the most valuable car company ever but I’m sure (or at least hope) it will be a great car when they eventually are delivered (assuming no 1 inch panel gaps, poor paint jobs etc, in which case I’ll refuse to take it). Good things come to those that who wait but realize timing causes issues for some and appreciate general levels of frustration noted here.

I’m new to the Tesla tribe as well. Ordered my Model S Plaid beginning of March. I’m not getting any notifications or information from “dealerships” regarding updates for delivery. I have several things to do before taking ownership (insurance, financing,etc) of my vehicle and stressed that I won’t have time to get it all done if not given a heads up for ETA. Appreciate TMC’s members and the information they provide.