Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Hayseed_MS]

Ok $10 per entry - one entry person. Two winners
1) Closest to date of first consumer delivery
2) Specific detailed reason for delay

 

[GT_IE]

My theory on the delay is that it relates to vision only (no radar) fsd. What if they were so confident that they designed the refresh with no radar but the software isn’t ready?

 

[elguapo]

It’s not FSD or radar - it’s got to be something major. SW can be updated. They can’t even MAKE a refreshed S or X right now. So the software doesn’t matter. There is no reason to believe the new/retooled line is up and running. There’s got to be a delay with the actual assembly- whether it’s permits or something else. Could also be taking time to boost stats, but if they could, they’d be making cars. They can’t. And it doesn’t seem like that will change soon. Dollars to donuts Musk reveals nothing helpful/insightful...for as odd as he can be, Musk doesn’t like looking like a bumbling buffoon...

 

[brunla]

Even photos 'in the wild' have slowed down. My god there isn't a fix to be had around this place.

 

[pacnwplaid]

Here’s another thought for all of us that are waiting for our new MSLR/MSP. Lots of theories being posted here and believe me, my mind runs wild about why for those who have ordered, what is taking so long. Going 0-60, 0-100 and quarter mile times can be achieved on most vehicles in straight line acceleration with minimal investments. When we talk about a car that hits a quarter mile at 155mph, can achieve 200mph, and will beat most super cars lap
Time at luguna seca, we are talking about a serious machine. Every auto manufacturer wants to see Elon and Tesla fail. The press is all over him and the press will get their hands on a production model plaid and beat it to “sugar.” If they can show that the car does not live up to its potential, game over.

Has anyone here driven a car past 150mph for an extended period of time? Every 1 mph closer to 200 things change. I hate to rely on my gut but I believe Elon is trying to get things right. Let’s not rush it here. Believe me I wanted my plaid late last year. However, let’s make sure he gets this new release right. I hate waiting but I’m willing to do so. thoughts everyone?

 

[EVonly]

Ford is temporarily shutting down manufacturing of the Mustang due to chip shortages.
Ford shutdown

“This problem has affected many other automakers, ranging from Toyota to Nissan, Daimler to Porsche. Industry analysts predict the chip shortages will limit the production of cars in the near term, but thankfully the problem will go away after a while.”

“Another strategy to deal with the shortages has been for automakers to shut down production lines for vehicles with thinner profit margins. This means many cars, like the Ford Mustang, Chevy Camaro, and Dodge Challenger, will see constrained supply. Another example is Daimler shutting down its compact car plant in Germany where 18,500 workers are employed. Instead of pumping out more Mercedes-Benz C-Class vehicles, the company is looking to put what semiconductor chips it has into more expensive model lines so profits don’t take as big of a hit.”

If this was the case with Tesla you would expect them to lower output on 3/Y and increase output on S/X. Since this isn’t happening, one can conclude that this isn’t the issue delaying the S/X production. I can’t wait until Monday so we can hear absolutely nothing from Elon.

 

[Ardje]

My theory on the delay is that it relates to vision only (no radar) fsd. What if they were so confident that they designed the refresh with no radar but the software isn’t ready?

I thought of that too. So they wouldn’t have to equip with radar. But the tesla website shows the radar with the sensor array. So probably not the reason? Or if it is then tesla sold us a car with radar but we’ll get one without (and the price will be reduced ).

 

[omarsultan]

OK, bored, so here's my list of list of possible reasons for the delay and their likelihood:

• Yoke steering: non-issue, NHTSA will not block it ahead of time, worst case they ship with round wheels and replace
• Chip shortage: 1) Elon would blame the supplier like he did with the 3/Y shutdown, 2) if supplies are constrained, they would be building some cars
• SW issue (new HW needs 9.0, auto-shifting not working right, etc): they would be building cars and probably shipping them to distro hubs, then holding them until the SW is fixed
• Other supply chain issue (windows, sensors, displays, etc): possible, global supply chains are pretty hosed, but it would need to be something common to the LR and Plaid otherwise they would be building something
• Production line issue (robot issue, facilities issue, etc): maybe, not sure if we have seen a car of the main line -- assuming all the mules came off the old S-line
• Competitive pressure: possible, last minute tweaking of design because the competition is closer than expected--Cd, range, performance, features
• Design issue: possible, testing as revealed some fundamental design issue common to the LR and Plaid that needs to be diagnosed and resolved

Missing anything, disagree?

 

[eipi10]

OK, bored, so here's my list of list of possible reasons for the delay and their likelihood:

• Yoke steering: non-issue, NHTSA will not block it ahead of time, worst case they ship with round wheels and replace
• Chip shortage: 1) Elon would blame the supplier like he did with the 3/Y shutdown, 2) if supplies are constrained, they would be building some cars
• SW issue (new HW needs 9.0, auto-shifting not working right, etc): they would be building cars and probably shipping them to distro hubs, then holding them until the SW is fixed
• Other supply chain issue (windows, sensors, displays, etc): possible, global supply chains are pretty hosed, but it would need to be something common to the LR and Plaid otherwise they would be building something
• Production line issue (robot issue, facilities issue, etc): maybe, not sure if we have seen a car of the main line -- assuming all the mules came off the old S-line
• Competitive pressure: possible, last minute tweaking of design because the competition is closer than expected--Cd, range, performance, features
• Design issue: possible, testing as revealed some fundamental design issue common to the LR and Plaid that needs to be diagnosed and resolved

Missing anything, disagree?

any explanation has to take into account that Elon said in January that the car would be delivered in February and the website said that too. assuming that wasn’t a complete lie, then we can reject supply chain issues. It is unreasonable to think that Tesla would be that clueless as to when its contractual suppliers would be delivering parts. Something has to have happened in February to change things.

 

[TrevTremaine]

So, looking at the drone flyover from yesterday, am I right that I'm seeing a number of Model S awaiting loading onto car carriers (within first minute, first row of cars lined up)? Also, around the 7 minute mark, is one of the gigapresses still shutdown (first approached press)?

Sorry if I'm wrong - hard to tell from the car's profile. I'm looking at the line across the middle of the roof (just aft of the B pillar) for the Model S as opposed to the entire roof lined up. Might be old cars?

 

[elguapo]

So, looking at the drone flyover from yesterday, am I right that I'm seeing a number of Model S awaiting loading onto car carriers (within first minute, first row of cars lined up)? Also, around the 7 minute mark, is one of the gigapresses still shutdown (first approached press)?

Sorry if I'm wrong - hard to tell from the car's profile. I'm looking at the line across the middle of the roof (just aft of the B pillar) for the Model S as opposed to the entire roof lined up. Might be old cars?

Sadly, those look like a bunch of Ys and some 3s maybe. I don’t see any Ss.

 

[TrevTremaine]

Sadly, those look like a bunch of Ys and some 3s maybe. I don’t see any Ss.

I think the first row has a few Model Ss.

Also, I do see a couple of S and an X in the lot at 9:04. (Red at the bottom, blue the next row up and the white X is in the back left corner).

 

[Tigers]

I think the first row has a few Model Ss.
View attachment 656600


Also, I do see a couple of S and an X in the lot at 9:04. (Red at the bottom, blue the next row up and the white X is in the back left corner).View attachment 656599

None of those circled in picture one are model s. Does look like you found at least one S and X in the second picture though

 

[Jetpad]

My latest very optimistic/hopeful theory on the delay is that after Tesla created the structural battery pack and systems for the new S/X using the 18650 cells, they found some sort of issue with maybe the temperature management. So they had two choices, keep working to solve the thermal issue or delay production until the yield rate on 4680 cells is high enough to just go ahead and switch to the new cells. It's probably fantasy land but I could sit tight if that were happening.

 

[Jetpad]

I think the first row has a few Model Ss.
View attachment 656600


Also, I do see a couple of S and an X in the lot at 9:04. (Red at the bottom, blue the next row up and the white X is in the back left corner).View attachment 656599

I think I need to take a class is Tesla Model identification. The differences between them just don't stand out to me.

 

[Cysco]

I think the first row has a few Model Ss.


Also, I do see a couple of S and an X in the lot at 9:04. (Red at the bottom, blue the next row up and the white X is in the back left corner).

Also, appears there are used vehicles in that second picture so unless you can see inside or can definitively say the cars are chrome deleted it’s hard to know if any S/X you see is a new one or old one.

 

[cascadilla]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1385887015774867457

you heard it here first gents. lies can be beautiful.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Ok $10 per entry - one entry person. Two winners
1) Closest to date of first consumer delivery
2) Specific detailed reason for delay

I'll bite:

1) May 25th
2) A problem with the machine that makes the machine. I realize this is not all that specific but I don't know specifica of the production process save there's megacastings.

 

[Tigers]

Where's the inspections whisperer? @doubleshot, need some help find record updated buddy!

 

[HuntsHeating]

Also, appears there are used vehicles in that second picture so unless you can see inside or can definitively say the cars are chrome deleted it’s hard to know if any S/X you see is a new one or old one.

It makes sense they would try to make a refresh car before the earning call