Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Drew-MS]

As others have said I think If the delay was due to external events, Elon would have said so. Maybe the gigapress fire is the cause, but I think if that were the case he would have said as much. The fire is a known event. People would expect delays as a result of fire damage so why keep it a secret if the fire was the primary cause?

Many of the potential reasons mentioned (chip shortages, retooling, yoke approval, fire, etc) would be perfectly acceptable reasons for delays. Tesla would have been transparent and most reservation holders would understand, accept, and wait for their cars.
So since Tesla hasn’t said a word in 3 months, I think it’s something else entirely. The SA don’t even know what’s going on so it’s not something like chip shortages. Tesla at least should have provided an explanation to the customers that were expecting delivery 2 months ago.
There’s only one reason why Tesla would stay silent and risk pissing off customers. It could be something embarrassing and they don’t want to look bad. There’s no other reason I can think of why they wouldn’t be transparent. It could be something to do with performance. Maybe a shortfall, could be a range issue, maybe some parts can’t handle the crazy torque, maybe they realized last minute they needed to go with a slightly larger battery to achieve the performance/range. Maybe they tested the plaid and kept hitting 145, not 155. Maybe Tesla was too transparent on the website with very specific performance numbers like 9.23-155. Of course the car has to meet or exceed those numbers. This would certainly cause a lengthy delay. Who knows, just more speculation..

 

[BarbJohn]

Or the delay could be due to waiting for this FCC approval which Tesla received last week..

Tesla Received Approval to Install Short-Range Interactive Motion-Sensing Radar in Its Vehicles

 

[blackhawk]

After delivering the CT, Semi and Roadster in the next 24 months with "feature complete" FSD as a capstone, it would be a good time to move on.

But FSD was feature complete in 2019!

Feb 20 2019 ARK Invest podcast: "I think we will be feature complete, full self-driving, this year. Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention. This year. I would say I am of certain of that, that is not a question mark."

SpaceX delivers on time because they have a very competent CEO calling the shots and presumably she doesn’t tolerate Elon getting too involved.

 

[HuntsHeating]

I know this is one month old, but what's up with this trailered refresh? Customer car?

 

[blackhawk]

I wonder when Tesla is going to start calling 911 on that drone pilot? What they are doing is clearly illegal in CA.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Ok - I have verifiable truth to report. This was heard from Elon talking over a non-fat Latte at Starbucks.

Here is what he will say at the earnings call:
50% S/X Refresh (includes mea culpa on delays, flannel graphs regarding delays, Waffle House gift cards for our troubles, and VIN's) - on topic
25% How space monkeys he found on Mars will replace robots without flinging poo
10% 3/Y Performance and his favorite WhambamTeslacam videos
5% Demonstrate the new yoke in the S/X
5% Review of newly developed body function noises coming in the V11 software update
5% Questions and Answers (mostly questions with answers being referred to the Public Liaison Officer at Tesla)

Pretty sure this is credible.

ETA: It was a Venti size without whipped cream.

 

[elguapo]

@Hayseed_MS As always, your intel is top notch and much appreciated. I did, however, hear, his preferred size is Trenta because it’s bigger and he appreciates the difficulty in manufacturing a cup of that size.

 

[Fred42]

SpaceX delivers on time because they have a very competent CEO calling the shots and presumably she doesn’t tolerate Elon getting too involved.

SpaceX CEO is Elon.

 

[Fred42]

I wonder when Tesla is going to start calling 911 on that drone pilot? What they are doing is clearly illegal in CA.

Tesla allows drone flyovers.

 

[sflgator]

I know this is one month old, but what's up with this trailered refresh? Customer car?

"Engineering" car aka "test mule" sent out to one Tesla SC somewhere in the US for testing in that area. I know, they should've already had their testing done months ago before announcing the refreshed MS is ready for production. Boy were they wrong!

 

[Nappypapi]

SpaceX CEO is Elon.

Yeah, i believe SpaceX has a strong COO to be traffic cop for elon, something tesla doesnt have i believe

 

[omarsultan]

SpaceX CEO is Elon.

I believe he meant Gwynne Shotwell who is the COO of SpaceX and probably can be credited with keeping things running on time

"Engineering" car aka "test mule" sent out to one Tesla SC somewhere in the US for testing in that area.

That is a fair assumption, but I don't think we've seen a sighting of a red mule

 

[Drew-MS]

Many of the potential reasons mentioned (chip shortages, retooling, yoke approval, fire, etc) would be perfectly acceptable reasons for delays. Tesla would have been transparent and most reservation holders would understand, accept, and wait for their cars.
So since Tesla hasn’t said a word in 3 months, I think it’s something else entirely. The SA don’t even know what’s going on so it’s not something like chip shortages. Tesla at least should have provided an explanation to the customers that were expecting delivery 2 months ago.
There’s only one reason why Tesla would stay silent and risk pissing off customers. It could be something embarrassing and they don’t want to look bad. There’s no other reason I can think of why they wouldn’t be transparent. It could be something to do with performance. Maybe a shortfall, could be a range issue, maybe some parts can’t handle the crazy torque, maybe they realized last minute they needed to go with a slightly larger battery to achieve the performance/range. Maybe they tested the plaid and kept hitting 145, not 155. Maybe Tesla was too transparent on the website with very specific performance numbers like 9.23-155. Of course the car has to meet or exceed those numbers. This would certainly cause a lengthy delay. Who knows, just more speculation..

There are quite a few videos on YouTube of cars hitting 155mph in the 1/4 mile. All of these cars have one thing in common: the 60-130 time is typically in the 4 -4.5 sec range.
When the video of the Laguna Seca Plaid was released, I used the 60-130 time of 6 seconds and then I compared to other cars with similar 60-130 times. My estimate back then was a 1/4 in 9.6 - 9.8 at about 145 which was very impressive considering the Model S performance typically did the 1/4 in mid 10s at 124-126.
When Tesla released the performance specs of the plaid, the claimed 9.23 at 155 seemed way out of reach. Could the plaid really be 30mph faster in a 1/4 than a current model s performance? Quite remarkable.
But how did Tesla increase the Plaid’s performance from the Laguna Seca video to when they listed the specs a few months later ? It seems possible but there are no videos since the Laguna Seca lap, which is the only video showing a plaid accelerating.
We do know the fastest Lucid has a tri-motor and a 113kw battery to produce 1080hp. Does the plaid with a tri-motor and 1020hp have a much smaller battery ? There were rumors the battery in the refresh is smaller than 100kw but we don’t know. Did Tesla miscalculate and then had to go back to testing?

 

[cascadilla]

There are quite a few videos on YouTube of cars hitting 155mph in the 1/4 mile. All of these cars have one thing in common: the 60-130 time is typically in the 4 -4.5 sec range.
When the video of the Laguna Seca Plaid was released, I used the 60-130 time of 6 seconds and then I compared to other cars with similar 60-130 times. My estimate back then was a 1/4 in 9.6 - 9.8 at about 145 which was very impressive considering the Model S performance typically did the 1/4 in mid 10s at 124-126.
When Tesla released the performance specs of the plaid, the claimed 9.23 at 155 seemed way out of reach. Could the plaid really be 30mph faster in a 1/4 than a current model s performance? Quite remarkable.
But how did Tesla increase the Plaid’s performance from the Laguna Seca video to when they listed the specs a few months later ? It seems possible but there are no videos since the Laguna Seca lap, which is the only video showing a plaid accelerating.
We do know the fastest Lucid has a tri-motor and a 113kw battery to produce 1080hp. Does the plaid with a tri-motor and 1020hp have a much smaller battery ? There were rumors the battery in the refresh is smaller than 100kw but we don’t know. Did Tesla miscalculate and then had to go back to testing?

If so, why delay long range? Doesn’t track.

 

[Drew-MS]

If so, why delay long range? Doesn’t track.

This is all hypothetical. Total speculation on my part.
If it was a miscalculation, maybe Tesla wants to keep the battery of the LR and Plaid the same so using a slightly larger battery in both cars. The only difference is LR has 2 motors and Plaid 3 (less likely.)

Or maybe they simply want to release both cars at the same time for whatever reason. (More likely)

 

[omarsultan]

If you assume same pack for LR and Plaid, then if they needed a bigger pack, if might have had a cascade effect from having to re-design components to re-doing crash testing. In that case, it would hold up both models. IIRC, the pack is no longer modular (designed for swap) so needing to change pack size might be a big deal.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

If you assume same pack for LR and Plaid, then if they needed a bigger pack, if might have had a cascade effect from having to re-design components to re-doing crash testing. In that case, it would hold up both models. IIRC, the pack is no longer modular (designed for swap) so needing to change pack size might be a big deal.

Real reason or not - do not know - but range target could be an issue.

ETA: If range is an issue, let's hope it to add more due to competition and not that they cannot meet currently stated range.

 

[sflgator]

There are quite a few videos on YouTube of cars hitting 155mph in the 1/4 mile. All of these cars have one thing in common: the 60-130 time is typically in the 4 -4.5 sec range.
When the video of the Laguna Seca Plaid was released, I used the 60-130 time of 6 seconds and then I compared to other cars with similar 60-130 times. My estimate back then was a 1/4 in 9.6 - 9.8 at about 145 which was very impressive considering the Model S performance typically did the 1/4 in mid 10s at 124-126.
When Tesla released the performance specs of the plaid, the claimed 9.23 at 155 seemed way out of reach. Could the plaid really be 30mph faster in a 1/4 than a current model s performance? Quite remarkable.
But how did Tesla increase the Plaid’s performance from the Laguna Seca video to when they listed the specs a few months later ? It seems possible but there are no videos since the Laguna Seca lap, which is the only video showing a plaid accelerating.
We do know the fastest Lucid has a tri-motor and a 113kw battery to produce 1080hp. Does the plaid with a tri-motor and 1020hp have a much smaller battery ? There were rumors the battery in the refresh is smaller than 100kw but we don’t know. Did Tesla miscalculate and then had to go back to testing?

I don’t believe Lucid has revealed the Air GT (800 HP) and Dream Ed’s (1,080 HP) weight yet, but I suspect it’s heavier (likely around 4800-5000 lbs), which can also account for being a bit slower than than MS Plaid with 1,020 HP.

 

[EVonly]

That is a fair assumption, but I don't think we've seen a sighting of a red mule

I posted pictures I took of a red mule in San Clemente, CA twice on this board. It didn’t have the arachnids though. Here they are again for those that missed it.

 

[ericw]

1 day until we get an “update” from Elon. Half of me is optimistic but the other half makes me question the reliability of what Elon says, given how accurate his last earnings call was. Either way, we’ll see!