Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[eipi10]

(Note: I’ll freely admit that this is second hand info, so please be gentle... just innocently passing along info that I found interesting)

Hey all, just thought I would pass along some info I got on Thursday from a friend who is high up with a leading chip supplier (cough... NXP) and specializes in autonomous vehicles.

Anyways, he was in a meeting with other execs at said chip supplier and one of his colleagues had to step out of the room for a bit. Upon returning, the colleague said that he had to take a call from Musk who was asking (begging?) for 50K chips to be delivered in March. But given the chip shortage (and I had no idea just how bad it was until chatting with this person) the best they could do was delivering TSLA 5K chips in August.

I had just told him I finally took the plunge and ordered a refreshed MX on 1/28. He had no idea whether his tidbit was related to my delay, but was more speaking to just how dire the situation is with regard to the worldwide shortage of chips. My brain couldn’t help but link the two since MS deliveries were originally to start in March, but that could totally be me jumping to conclusions.

In any case, hearing that part about August made my heart sink a bit. I, just like everyone here, truly hope we’ll be surprised and start seeing VINs flowing freely in the next few weeks. But after hearing his story, I have begun to manage expectations and settle in for the long(er) haul.

Either way, on a personal note, you all have become my support group in this long wait for my first Tesla! For that, I thank you (as does my girlfriend who is beyond tired of hearing me talk about it)!

Have a great Sunday, friends!

(6 seat, pearl white LR MX with 22” Turbine Wheels and FSD ordered on 1/28... Estimated delivery shows as April, for now)

I think if the delay was due to chip shortage, Tesla would just say the delay is due to chip shortage and be done with it.

 

[patt0n]

As someone working in a field that has been greatly affected by the IC shortages (and knowing that car makers typically represent less than 5% of silicon sales for the big suppliers), it would not surprise me at all to consider this as one of the factors in the slippage. One of the problems is as follows: if Tesla designed a car based on the need for new ICs in January, then they're far behind the demand curve of everyone else that's been working with the suppliers to get them. In fact, some of the industry orders have been unfulfilled since November, and we're talking millions of chips. If Tesla is asking for only 50k (again, who knows?) they're trying to wrestle supply from businesses that have many orders of magnitude on order, and who have orders outstanding from well before Tesla asked for them.

Guess where most of these chips are going? TVs...

Honestly, if that's the case it does not bode well for 1H deliveries at all. AMD and others expect this problem to last until deep into the year (if not longer).

I also wonder how much of this is the 400+ mile range set in the configurator (though I am not an engineer and don't know how much the new chassis and lower weight contribute to the increase in miles/charge) - and whether they're not able to meet those claims.

 

[NewtoATX]

No offense but hearsay at best. Likely or not - I do not know. Does your friend know you are jeopardizing his position by disclosing a confidential call between two executives and also an executive meeting? I am sure at that level this would be frowned upon at best and would be covered in an NDA.

I am just skeptical with all the "credible" sources proven wrong again and again. No one has proof of actual anything. The closest is @doubleshot posting permit issues. The call took place last Thursday (in April) but Musk, himself, was asking for chips to be delivered in March?

No offense, but I clearly noted this was second hand info. Never said this was credible info either, just passing it along to some that might be interested. Take it for what it’s worth. Lastly, the call with my friend happened on Thursday not the alleged call with Musk. Clearly if he was asking for chips in March, he wouldn’t be doing so in April.

 

[Drew-MS]

(Note: I’ll freely admit that this is second hand info, so please be gentle... just innocently passing along info that I found interesting)

Hey all, just thought I would pass along some info I got on Thursday from a friend who is high up with a leading chip supplier (cough... NXP) and specializes in autonomous vehicles.

Anyways, he was in a meeting with other execs at said chip supplier and one of his colleagues had to step out of the room for a bit. Upon returning, the colleague said that he had to take a call from Musk who was asking (begging?) for 50K chips to be delivered in March. But given the chip shortage (and I had no idea just how bad it was until chatting with this person) the best they could do was delivering TSLA 5K chips in August.

I had just told him I finally took the plunge and ordered a refreshed MX on 1/28. He had no idea whether his tidbit was related to my delay, but was more speaking to just how dire the situation is with regard to the worldwide shortage of chips. My brain couldn’t help but link the two since MS deliveries were originally to start in March, but that could totally be me jumping to conclusions.

In any case, hearing that part about August made my heart sink a bit. I, just like everyone here, truly hope we’ll be surprised and start seeing VINs flowing freely in the next few weeks. But after hearing his story, I have begun to manage expectations and settle in for the long(er) haul.

Either way, on a personal note, you all have become my support group in this long wait for my first Tesla! For that, I thank you (as does my girlfriend who is beyond tired of hearing me talk about it)!

Have a great Sunday, friends!

(6 seat, pearl white LR MX with 22” Turbine Wheels and FSD ordered on 1/28... Estimated delivery shows as April, for now)

I personally feel if the chip shortages were causing the delays, Tesla would have said so and it would have been sort of acceptable. The fact they haven’t , makes me feel it’s something else entirely.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

No offense, but I clearly noted this was second hand info. Never said this was credible info either, just passing it along to some that might be interested. Take it for what it’s worth. Lastly, the call with my friend happened on Thursday not the alleged call with Musk. Clearly if he was asking for chips in March, he wouldn’t be doing so in April.
View attachment 654787

Why even post then? Do not get hurt when you post second hand info and someone doubts it. If you have been following this thread, there has been lots of people posting over the internut with "credible" info. Never used the word credible to describe your post.

ETA: Yes, according to my wife I am obtuse...

 

[fldude]

Fwiw, Elon did tweet about supplies in April. Who knows if it's related but yeah.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380093374833729537

 

[derevan007]

With all this speculation, I am reminded of Occam's razor, which suggests the simplest explanation is the most likely. For me, the simple explanation is that the refresh simply is not ready for production across all the requirements across all components that must be satisfied to go into production: design, test, tooling, permits, supply chain, etc. I don't think it is one thing. Simply not ready to go into production. We've all been looking for that one good reason for the delay (based on the fact we were told in January it was already in production). I think this is the reason we have not heard an explanation for the delay; it simply was and still is not ready to produce at scale.

 

[NewtoATX]

Why even post then? Do not get butthurt when you post second hand info and someone doubts it. If you have been following this thread, there has been lots of people posting over the internut with "credible" info. Never used the word credible to describe your post.

Not butthurt, at all. I posted it because I found it to be interesting and thought it would also be interesting for others who are eager for any information. This action caused you to go on a rant about people posting “credible info” and a ridiculous aside about me putting my friend’s job in jeopardy. In the absence of any communication from Tesla, if we’re not going to share information about what we‘ve heard then why gather here?!

 

[Drew-MS]

Went to get my Macan serviced and told the guys at the dealership I had ordered a model S. They then proceeded to let me take a Taycan Turbo as a loaner for the day. Absolutely loving this car and seriously considering a refund from Tesla and going ahead with a Taycan Turbo S. I’ve never driven a Tesla before and was hoping the Plaid would be a good car to finally switch for. I think I’m sticking with Porsche because I don’t know how long this wait will be and I can’t imagine it being much better than the Taycan Turbo.

Since the refresh isn’t out yet, the real issue is you can’t compare the two cars. The current model s performance has similar performance to the Taycan. IMO the plaid will roast the Taycan by quite a lot and the plaid is a lot less expensive. Maybe buy a used Taycan so you won’t get hurt too bad when you decide to dump it after you experience the new model s ...
Edit: I’ll admit, I’ve thought about doing this myself . Hate to say it, I don’t have confidence in July.

 

[fldude]

Another long range spotted... This one is particularly unique in that you can make out a small D by the hazard lights and rubber landmarks on the wheel

https://imgur.com/a/CuUsIIr

 

[Tigers]

I don't see the "D"... Also at least it is a complete car including trim.

 

[Drew-MS]

Another long range spotted... This one is particularly unique in that you can make out a small D by the hazard lights and rubber landmarks on the wheel

https://imgur.com/a/CuUsIIr

Great pics, thanks for sharing. I really like the interior stitching on the front seats and armrest.

 

[eipi10]

I personally feel if the chip shortages were causing the delays, Tesla would have said so and it would have been sort of acceptable. The fact they haven’t , makes me feel it’s something else entirely.

Also, it would imply that Tesla has such limited insight into its supply chain that in January it believes it will be delivering cars in February but then discovers in February that it won't be able to get "chips" until several months later. Maybe I'm missing something, but that sounds completely ridiculous.

The other ridiculous-sounding thing about the NXP post is that it suggests that all chips are fungible. As if Elon is thinking -- damn, I don't have any chips, I'm going to cold call my contact at NXP and see if they have any. In reality, circuits and software have to be designed around the particular functionalities and electrical characteristics of individual chips.

Finally, a part shortage logically should result in slowed production, not no production.

 

[fldude]

I don't see the "D"... Also at least it is a complete car including trim.

Hopefully this is better, it's quite faint

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Also, it would imply that Tesla has such limited insight into its supply chain that in January it believes it will be delivering cars in February but then discovers in February that it won't be able to get "chips" until several months later. Maybe I'm missing something, but that sounds completely ridiculous.

The other ridiculous-sounding thing about the NXP post is that it suggests that all chips are fungible. As if Elon is thinking -- damn, I don't have any chips, I'm going to cold call my contact at NXP and see if they have any. In reality, products have to be designed around chips.

Maybe Elon thought he was calling the deli and asking for BBQ chips...

 

[Hayseed_MS]

@fldude Thanks for pic on the "D". I could not see it at first either. Shouldn't we also see the "P R N" also? Maybe it is the light hitting the panel?

 

[jsight]

Maybe Elon thought he was calling the deli and asking for BBQ chips...

Funny, but also basically what I think when the media and auto companies blame the "chip shortage". What chips? RAM chips? ECU? Tortilla?

There's a shocking lack of detail there and it makes me hungry for guacamole.

 

[omarsultan]

I think if the delay was due to chip shortage, Tesla would just say the delay is due to chip shortage and be done with it.

Agreed--they had no problem saying this with the Model 3.

Hey, @NewtoATX -- thanks fro providing info and caveating appropriately. We are both desperate for info and tired of fake news and some of us apparently need a nap.

 

[Drew-MS]

@fldude Thanks for pic on the "D". I could not see it at first either. Shouldn't we also see the "P R N" also?

Maybe the D just tells us we are in D.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Maybe the D just tells us we are in D.

Nobody was in the car and it was shot through the window so probably not in drive, I looked at it again and it may be due to the sun hitting just the D. The other mays be there just not highlighted by the sun.