Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[pacnwplaid]

View attachment 670365

Super happy for you! Hopefully the rest of us will have our orders updated soon!

 

[1020hp]

Based on all Elon has said, I cannot see the new batteries being part if this launch but coming in the "soon" future.

I think it will have better range and such than on the website and so will the LR. I do not expect any big surprises. Would love to see but not holding my breath.

I will wait it out until Thursday. Any major difference or new batteries, I may consider upping to the Plaid.

I called my SA- they have no clue of why it’s cancelled or what Plaid will have. I Agree don’t think new battery pack is coming in Plaid. They probably cant built that in near future and have dropped that plan. Plaid and LR probably mostly same as what we already know- feel the limbic resonance LOL. This is a **** up of epic proportions

 

[Tigers]

This is the fun with Tesla. Not much is out of the realm of possibility. I hope they did something to improve on the car given the long delay but it could very well be that they just needed to wait for parts and fix some technical issues.

But thank god all of the speculation can end on Thursday and we have at least one person who can tell us how great the car is.

 

[1020hp]

This is the fun with Tesla. Not much is out of the realm of possibility. I hope they did something to improve on the car given the long delay but it could very well be that they just needed to wait for parts and fix some technical issues.

But thank god all of the speculation can end on Thursday and we have at least one person who can tell us how great the car is.

Most likely. Car delayed, stock not doing well. I would have been better buying some AMC and GME lol

 

[Hayseed_MS]

This is the fun with Tesla. Not much is out of the realm of possibility. I hope they did something to improve on the car given the long delay but it could very well be that they just needed to wait for parts and fix some technical issues.

But thank god all of the speculation can end on Thursday and we have at least one person who can tell us how great the car is.

Once we cannot speculate on the refresh, can we all move over to the CT forum and start this all over again until it launches?

 

[Leodoc]

me thinks the 4680 might've been the delay? ....... Everyone is getting 4680 batteries?!?!?

It's not crazy and a boy can dream can't he?

 

[BarbJohn]

 

[omarsultan]

Once we cannot speculate on the refresh, can we all move over to the CT forum and start this all over again until it launches?

As they say, best entertainment $100 can buy

 

[EVonly]

Based on all Elon has said, I cannot see the new batteries being part if this launch but coming in the "soon" future.

I think it will have better range and such than on the website and so will the LR. I do not expect any big surprises. Would love to see but not holding my breath.

I will wait it out until Thursday. Any major difference or new batteries, I may consider upping to the Plaid.

ETA: for @Tigers sanity, I hope they put back in that tilting screen that someone posted on Twitter.

While I love @Tigers enthusiasm and strong belief that the 4680’s have been moved to the standard Plaid, I still think it is long shot but not an impossibility. The only way 4680’s are in production now is if they couldn’t get the thermal envelope of the 18650 cells to operate within specs for the power output required for the new Plaid powertrain. We do know this is a possibility because Elon has already publicly stated they were experiencing safety issues associated with the battery.

We had this conversation a few weeks ago, and several of us were speculating that the 4680 cells were the answer to the thermal issues. We still don’t know how they solved the issue, but it seems like it took them 5 months to figure out a fix. This is not an insignificant amount of time to shutdown a production line, and I think it is enough time to make dramatic changes to the vehicle.

The one thing I find odd about Elon’s tweet today is that he stated they cancelled the Plaid + because the regular Plaid is just so great. The standard Plaid with the 21” arachnids only gets 350 miles of range and the Plaid + gets an estimated 520. How can you cancel a car that will get 520 miles of range, and replace it with a 350 mile car that you say is so great the other product is being eliminated. It just doesn’t make sense, unless they somehow increased the range on the standard model. The range on the Plaid is not a replacement for the + since the current advertised ranges are not even in the same ballpark.

There are only a few scenarios to explain what is going on here:

• Tesla either increased the range on the standard Plaid so the gap isn’t so large and the + is no longer necessary, or they have a demand problem with the standard Plaid and canceled the Plaid + to remove the cannibalization effect.
• Maybe they just introduce the 520 mile range Plaid in mid 2022 and call it a Plaid LR. It is obviously bad marketing to introduce a product 18 months in advance of production because it reduces current sales volume.

 

[Tigers]

While I love @Tigers enthusiasm and strong belief that the 4680’s have been moved to the standard Plaid, I still think it is long shot but not an impossibility. The only way 4680’s are in production now is if they couldn’t get the thermal envelope of the 18650 cells to operate within specs for the power output required for the new Plaid powertrain. We do know this is a possibility because Elon has already publicly stated they were experiencing safety issues associated with the battery.

We had this conversation a few weeks ago, and several of us were speculating that the 4680’s cells were the answer to the thermal issues. We still don’t know how they solved the issue, but it seems like it took them 5 months to figure out a fix. This is not an insignificant amount of time to shutdown a production line, and I think it is enough time to make dramatic changes to the vehicle.

The one thing I find odd about Elon’s tweet today is that he stated they cancelled the Plaid + because the regular Plaid is just so great. The standard Plaid with the 21” arachnids only gets 350 miles of range and the Plaid + gets an estimated 520. How can you cancel a car that will get 520 miles of range, and replace it with a 350 mile car that you say is so great the other product is being eliminated. It just doesn’t make sense unless they somehow increased the range on the standard model. The range on the Plaid is not a replacement for the + since the current advertised ranges are not even in the same ballpark.

So.... You agree with me?

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Am I reading that correctly that Elon is saying the Plaid will have the 4680?

I thought the same, but check the date.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

I thought the same, but check the date.

Yeah, that is why I deleted it. I went back and read the date.

 

[ericw]

Apparently, Elon does not feel that an EV with >400 miles is necessary?

From the article:
When Electrek asked Musk to clarify the statement, the CEO told us that Tesla is not seeing a need for a range of more than 400 miles anymore:

“What we are seeing is that once you have a range above 400 miles, more range doesn’t really matter. There are essentially zero trips above 400 miles where the driver doesn’t need to stop for restroom, food, coffee, etc. anyway.”

Elon Musk announces Tesla is canceling Model S Plaid+, don't really need more than 400-mile range

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla is canceling the new Model S Plaid+ as he believes that the new Plaid...

electrek.co

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Yeah, that is why I deleted it. I went back and read the date.

 

[Ohmster]

Apparently, Elon does not feel that an EV with >400 miles is necessary?

From the article:
When Electrek asked Musk to clarify the statement, the CEO told us that Tesla is not seeing a need for a range of more than 400 miles anymore:

Elon Musk announces Tesla is canceling Model S Plaid+, don't really need more than 400-mile range

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla is canceling the new Model S Plaid+ as he believes that the new Plaid...

electrek.co

Problem is that the range figures are fantasy. If you can’t and shouldn’t go to zero. Not only because of current battery management and architecture but because features are disabled below 20%. Practical range is stated x .80 at best and that’s also if you charge to 100%. So 400 is really 320. In my world it is x .60 if the recommended charge window is 20%-80% unless I know that I am traveling long distances. Plus, not everywhere I need to pee has a charger.

This more so than performance delta is why I wanted the +.

 

[eipi10]

View attachment 670390me thinks the 4680 might've been the delay? ....... Everyone is getting 4680 batteries?!?!?

It's not crazy and a boy can dream can't he?

To be honest, it’s pretty crazy. Tesla has been struggling to produce the original car they promised, and now people think it will be substantially more advanced than what Tesla promised? If anything, I would expect less, not more given the refresh fiasco.

 

[EVonly]

So.... You agree with me?

I think it is a possibility and I’m hoping you are right, but I still think the odds are stacked against us. I would say 80 \ 20 against the 4680’s. If the Plaid does have the 4680’s, it makes the Plaid decision much easier for those of us on the fence.

Elon saying that an EV capable of more than 400 miles is not necessary is total nonsense, and the competition will eat Tesla alive if he maintains that viewpoint. All of us that have owned previous EV’s know that the range estimates are completely bogus since they are not reproducible in real world driving unless you drive at or way below speed limits. When I go on long drives, I usually drive above 80 mph on the interstate. I’m lucky if I get 50 or 60% of the EPA range. So, that 520 mile Plaid + is really a 300 mile car at high speeds on the interstate.

What has Elon been smoking?

 

[Atomadam]

Apparently, Elon does not feel that an EV with >400 miles is necessary?

From the article:
When Electrek asked Musk to clarify the statement, the CEO told us that Tesla is not seeing a need for a range of more than 400 miles anymore:

Elon Musk announces Tesla is canceling Model S Plaid+, don't really need more than 400-mile range

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla is canceling the new Model S Plaid+ as he believes that the new Plaid...

electrek.co

WHAT THE?!?!??!!?!?!?!!?

 

[Atomadam]

so with the + being canceled and the 4680's coming out at some point, maybe that will lead to less batteries in each car and more cars getting made? I dunno, how weird unless thats the ultimate troll.

 

[EVonly]

As they say, best entertainment $100 can buy

I posted this as an edit to a previous message but I wanted to put this in a reply directly to you.

@omarsultan Congrats on the early delivery! If anyone here deserved this it is definitely you. You are a tremendous asset to the TMC and Tesla community. You are incredibly knowledgeable and happy to share your expertise with everyone here, and you do it in a lowkey and drama-free manner. We are all really excited for you. Congrats!