Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[SarahsDad]

That's awesome, man!
I just saw that I received a text from Tesla and got really excited. But it was only a question if I have a trade-in. Well, this is the first text I have received since I ordered the car in February.

I too just got the "Have you considered trading in your vehicle with your upcoming Tesla Purchase?"

One problem - I reserved a Plaid way back on Battery Day (which became the Plaid +), and when I was asked last week if I wanted to switch to regular Plaid, and I said NO.

I wonder if all Plaid+ reservations are being dumped into the regular Plaid waiting line now. Nothing has changed on my account page. Guess we'll find out more on Thursday.

 

[jbrowdy]

Check out opening an account at Stanford federal credit union. I got 1.5%.

BofA running good rates as of last week. I am about 1.64%

 

[CorporateB]

Another Gabe flyover this morning, what a champion.

The fremont lots with S's before appears to have been refilled (including the dirt strip by the train tracks), so finally seeing some production. I think they all have spoilers on them, so looks like they're just pumping out plaids? Or maybe the angle is just making it look like that...but it does look like a spoiler. That was in the past 3 days since the last flyover there, so they may have pumped out ~100 plaids in that time.

Gabe also had a nice top down view of that lot outside of the factory, looks to be 400-500 S's there. No visible spoilers, maybe they add them on later? Or maybe they are mostly LR's like others speculated.

Support Gabe's patreon (www.patreon.com/teslafremontflyover), he's providing us great content.

 

[DLCT]

So when the monkey is on break I think they switch to a random walk algorithm for deliveries. The definition is perfect.. a random walk is the process by which randomly moving objects (ie our delivery dates) wander away from where they started (in my case March to Blank). A random walk cannot be predicted on the basis of past history. Now, clearly there are inputs that can help predict a random walk which the brightest minds in math didn’t realize, adding a Plaid order to an existing LR order seems to be one, going wood rather than carbon fiber, selecting FSD, not choosing white interior, and choosing dark colors over red (sorry @Tigers) but I will continue to enjoy this random walk and I look forward to living vicariously through @omarsultans delivery and updates later this week. On the recent flyovers, anybody feel it’s a bit like that game where you have to guess which cup the ball is under, just move a constant number of cars around the Fremont factory and now a random offsite parking lot and keep us all guessing on what it may, or may not, mean for our deliveries...good luck all, looking forward to hearing of deliveries picking up here. Still believe these cars, both LR and Plaid, are gonna be great.

Cant believe I posted this literary masterpiece one post before @omarsultan posted his VIN, worst timing ever good night all!

 

[CorporateB]

Another Gabe flyover this morning, what a champion.

The fremont lots with S's before appears to have been refilled (including the dirt strip by the train tracks), so finally seeing some production. I think they all have spoilers on them, so looks like they're just pumping out plaids? Or maybe the angle is just making it look like that...but it does look like a spoiler. That was in the past 3 days since the last flyover there, so they may have pumped out ~100 plaids in that time.

Gabe also had a nice top down view of that lot outside of the factory, looks to be 400-500 S's there. No visible spoilers, maybe they add them on later? Or maybe they are mostly LR's like others speculated.

Support Gabe's patreon (www.patreon.com/teslafremontflyover), he's providing us great content.

Actually the dirt road is maxed and has 60+ S's. The lot next to it has also about 50 or more. So maybe more like 150 produced in a couple of days assuming they have some parked randomly elsewhere.

No S's in logistics, so not sure what their plan is. The window is closing rapidly for end of quarter deliveries outside of CA.

(Please check my work)

 

[Allen T]

VIN!

View attachment 671081

Could you please make sure you are off on Friday

 

[ChrisOtt]

Actually the dirt road is maxed and has 60+ S's. The lot next to it has also about 50 or more. So maybe more like 150 produced in a couple of days assuming they have some parked randomly elsewhere.

No S's in logistics, so not sure what their plan is. The window is closing rapidly for end of quarter deliveries outside of CA.

(Please check my work)

They probably only care about being able to say deliveries are in progress, buys them a quarter for a substantial update

 

[omarsultan]

Gabe also had a nice top down view of that lot outside of the factory, looks to be 400-500 S's there. No visible spoilers, maybe they add them on later? Or maybe they are mostly LR's like others speculated.

That high-level top-down shot was awesome--nice artistry @gabeincal

 

[phantasms]

True! Hey phantasms, good to see you man. I remember you on the C6 Z06 forum with the awesome vids of your all black C6 Z06.

What up old friend!!

 

[TimGrant]

Hey Canada, someone have a june/july delivery date ?
Me RN1147 LR Black/White August
Qc.

Hi, I ordered in December, confirmed the upgrade after the announcement. I am showing a July delivery for the past two weeks to Calgary, I live in Winnipeg. Ordered MSLR, white, black interior, no FSD.

 

[Beyondludi]

Hey there, first time poster. I ordered my black, white interior/carbon fiber interior Plaid on May 22nd. At first it said June for a few days and then for about 5 days now it's been absolutely blank.

 

[PWRUP]

Hey there, first time poster. I ordered my black, white interior/carbon fiber interior Plaid on May 22nd. At first it said June for a few days and then for about 5 days now it's been absolutely blank.

Welcome to the club.

 

[brunla]

So now that we are approaching deliveries... if I were to get the "old" silver tempest wheels in the first batch of LR, do you think Tesla would allow me to change them out if I took delivery? My first Tesla, so have no idea on this kind of stuff. I really dislike the silver but wanted the range. (Also don't want to spend more money.)

 

[Beyondludi]

Welcome to the club.

Thank you! Also forgot to mention no FSD and I kept the tempest wheels.

 

[droopaloop]

Actually the dirt road is maxed and has 60+ S's. The lot next to it has also about 50 or more. So maybe more like 150 produced in a couple of days assuming they have some parked randomly elsewhere.

No S's in logistics, so not sure what their plan is. The window is closing rapidly for end of quarter deliveries outside of CA.

(Please check my work)

This matches what I saw. Things seem to move slowly and the lack of S's in the logistics lot does not inspire confidence.

With maybe 600 to 700 units in the latest video, how many do you think they deliver this month? 1000? Maybe 2000 tops with the end-of-quarter rush? Does anyone outside of US/Canada have an estimated delivery date? Curious if the July production run will go to Europe and elsewhere, or if they will stay in the US.

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Hey there, first time poster. I ordered my black, white interior/carbon fiber interior Plaid on May 22nd. At first it said June for a few days and then for about 5 days now it's been absolutely blank.

Happy to have you.

 

[TNGuy99]

VIN!

So thrilled for you getting a VIN and getting to pickup at the event Thursday too! Congratulations and I appreciate you offering to show us around your new Plaid!

 

[HiHo&Tonto]

I too just got the "Have you considered trading in your vehicle with your upcoming Tesla Purchase?"

One problem - I reserved a Plaid way back on Battery Day (which became the Plaid +), and when I was asked last week if I wanted to switch to regular Plaid, and I said NO.

I wonder if all Plaid+ reservations are being dumped into the regular Plaid waiting line now. Nothing has changed on my account page. Guess we'll find out more on Thursday.

I am LR and I got the trade in text too.

 

[webshot]

I can't wait to see what the monkey brings me tomorrow! Goodnight all!

 

[CorporateB]

This matches what I saw. Things seem to move slowly and the lack of S's in the logistics lot does not inspire confidence.

With maybe 600 to 700 units in the latest video, how many do you think they deliver this month? 1000? Maybe 2000 tops with the end-of-quarter rush? Does anyone outside of US/Canada have an estimated delivery date? Curious if the July production run will go to Europe and elsewhere, or if they will stay in the US.

If all S's in existence are either in Fremont or that lot right outside, then they probably have something like:

External lot: ~500 LR's
Fremont dirt road: ~70 Plaids (new as of ~3 days ago)
Fremont lot near dirt road ~60 Plaids (new as of ~3 days ago)
Fremont big sectioned off lot next to buildings (pic below, in almost every Gabe video): ~120 unknown (These have been here as far back as I remember. At least several weeks)

Even if they're waiting to deliver any until Plaid Day, you'd think they'd still be ramping up production. Once these internal lots clear we'll be able to get a better production estimate. If they deliver everything and we only see a trickle, ruh roh.

(Credit: Gabe 6/8 flyover)