Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Bill Price]

I expect Tesla to reach level 3 within the next couple of years. That’s good enough for me to consider FSD worth the current price.

Audi was poised to roll out a Level 3 car but decided not to. This is why per Audi:
Level 3 technology on the SAE scale of autonomy allows drivers to take their eyes off the road, but only under certain conditions. In this case, Audi planned to let the car do the driving in certain instances on highways, but the drivers still needed to remain on guard to take back control as needed.

With such a caveat, it almost makes the feature more stressful than anything, at least in my opinion. It's why some companies bypassed Level 3 and began shooting for Level 4, which allows nearly full autonomy. Even if there's an issue, a Level 4 car won't need to hand controls back to the driver. Today's systems on the market register at Level 2 partial automation and include Tesla's Autopilot, Cadillac's Super Cruise and others. There are no fully self-drivingcars on sale today.

 

[jebinc]

My car is social distancing.
View attachment 710553

@AnselmDante And someone may key your car for taking up two parking spots!

 

[Maybeplaid]

Interesting comparison again.

 

[uthatcher]

In @boonedocks example, he would lose $2400 for subscribing to FSD and then selling his car after two years. In that same example, someone who paid $10,000 for FSD would lose $8743.

Could you explain how he is proving you are actually correct?

Sure.

In @boonedocks example, he would lose $2400 for subscribing to FSD and then selling his car after two years. In that same example, someone who paid $10,000 for FSD would lose $8743.

Could you explain how he is proving you are actually correct?

Sure. One, FSD was not $10k in 2018 so the numbers are not correct. Two, there is a very obvious time factor that I’m very confident you can work out. Where does the retainer value of paying for FSD intersect the continued cost of the subscription? I don’t know. But it’s pretty apparent that if one was to keep there car for any extended amount of time , then paying in full for FSD is a better option.
Additionally, I sold a pre-refresh 2021 LR S and got $5k more than I paid for the car, which included FSD. I did not lose a penny on FSD. It would be difficult to argue that I gained anything from it other than it’s initial cost though either. I’m aware that this is a unique moment in used car history and likely would not play out in a year or two. However, it did happen.
Point is, there is a case to be made for purchase vs sub. It’s not just a 100% black and white argument where the sub is cheaper. I don’t think this is a particularly tough mathematical issue to work out.

 

[Sigma4Life]

optimizing = optimistic?

Yep meant optimistic. ‘optimizing’ is more appropriate for @2021plaid and his algorithm.

 

[Tigers]

Plaid buyers are not the ones that continue to talk about the value. It’s a handfuf of LR buyers who are obsessed with convincing everyone they made the right decision with the less expensive, slower LR. They keep talking about how Plaid is a worthless upgrade over LR so I simply pointed out that the cost of the Plaid upgrade is standard on $ per HP value in the world of sports cars.

Don't know if you see the irony in your post or nah but ok, I'm done. Do not care lol.

I just wanted to point out that some of us drive in chill mode and like longest range possible for road trips. We aren't all Ansel dante

 

[uthatcher]

Wow….based on that statement it doesn’t surprise me a bit that you would fork out $10,000 for grossly unfinished software.

You do realize that after 2 years you’d be out $4,800 for sub and out $8,500+ for purchase right? Maybe you don’t get the math

I’m having no issue with the math. I think this issue is more based on your assumption that nobody keeps a car more than 2 years. That is an incorrect assumption. And there is a point where the paid in full FSD will have more value than the continued payment of the sub.
And the “grossly unfinished” software has no bearing whatsoever on the conversation. The conversation has been posed as the person is buying or subscribing to the software. The state of that software means nothing in calculating the short, mid, and long term costs of the two ways of gaining the functionality of that software.
I get it. Get the subscription, don’t spend the $10k up front. Nobody cares. But realize there is a case where the purchase becomes a better investment than the sub. It’s not difficult math.

 

[AnselmDante]

@AnselmDante And someone may key your car for taking up two parking spots!

There is no parking spot on the other side of me. That's the exit.

 

[boonedocks]

I’m having no issue with the math. I think this issue is more based on your assumption that nobody keeps a car more than 2 years. That is an incorrect assumption. And there is a point where the paid in full FSD will have more value than the continued payment of the sub.
And the “grossly unfinished” software has no bearing whatsoever on the conversation. The conversation has been posed as the person is buying or subscribing to the software. The state of that software means nothing in calculating the short, mid, and long term costs of the two ways of gaining the functionality of that software.
I get it. Get the subscription, don’t spend the $10k up front. Nobody cares. But realize there is a case where the purchase becomes a better investment than the sub. It’s not difficult math.

yep...come back and let me know when that happens...

 

[Bill Price]

This guy bent his 21" too

That's what she said.

 

[Sigma4Life]

Audi was poised to roll out a Level 3 car but decided not to. This is why per Audi:
Level 3 technology on the SAE scale of autonomy allows drivers to take their eyes off the road, but only under certain conditions. In this case, Audi planned to let the car do the driving in certain instances on highways, but the drivers still needed to remain on guard to take back control as needed.

With such a caveat, it almost makes the feature more stressful than anything, at least in my opinion. It's why some companies bypassed Level 3 and began shooting for Level 4, which allows nearly full autonomy. Even if there's an issue, a Level 4 car won't need to hand controls back to the driver. Today's systems on the market register at Level 2 partial automation and include Tesla's Autopilot, Cadillac's Super Cruise and others. There are no fully self-drivingcars on sale today.

Good points. Autopilot has been accused of similar issues, being just good enough to where the driver stops paying attention at the worst time. FSD 10 is showing that it can safely recover from it’s own mistakes. IMO that’s the most important feature for any FSD. It’s not about being perfect, but being able to handle mistakes in a safe manner.

FSD Prime Directives:

1. Don’t hit people
2. Don’t hit objects
3. Obey the law and follow the road

Human drivers always avoid hitting people and objects above all else, so I think those should be the prime directives.

 

[AnselmDante]

Sure.

Sure. One, FSD was not $10k in 2018 so the numbers are not correct. Two, there is a very obvious time factor that I’m very confident you can work out. Where does the retainer value of paying for FSD intersect the continued cost of the subscription? I don’t know. But it’s pretty apparent that if one was to keep there car for any extended amount of time , then paying in full for FSD is a better option.
Additionally, I sold a pre-refresh 2021 LR S and got $5k more than I paid for the car, which included FSD. I did not lose a penny on FSD. It would be difficult to argue that I gained anything from it other than it’s initial cost though either. I’m aware that this is a unique moment in used car history and likely would not play out in a year or two. However, it did happen.
Point is, there is a case to be made for purchase vs sub. It’s not just a 100% black and white argument where the sub is cheaper. I don’t think this is a particularly tough mathematical issue to work out.

Your original snarky comment was directed at an example with defined parameters. You didn't do the math and were wrong. Wrong about your point of view for that example. Changing the parameters to make yourself right is not how anything is done.

No one is saying it is a black and white argument. It was already stated, by me, that after a certain point the up front purchase would be worth more than the subscription. My god, this is a textbook middle school word problem. "At what point does choice X become cheaper than choice Y." The original poster's point was that if you sell your car after two years, which many Tesla owners seem to do, then the full purchase price of FSD is ABSOLUTELY a waste of money.

I agree with you that it is not a tough mathematical issue to work out, but you failed to work it out the first time.

 

[Bill Price]

Plaid buyers are not the ones that continue to talk about the value. It’s a handfuf of LR buyers who are obsessed with convincing everyone they made the right decision with the less expensive, slower LR. They keep talking about how Plaid is a worthless upgrade over LR so I simply pointed out that the cost of the Plaid upgrade is standard on $ per HP value in the world of sports cars.

Can we just agree to disagree and let this go? It's all relative. I am happy for those of you out there that are happy with your LR's. I am also happy for those of you out there that are happy with your Plaid. I'm just waiting for me to be happy with a Plaid with 4680's. Then we can be just one big happy Tesla family?

 

[Sigma4Life]

Don't know if you see the irony in your post or nah but ok, I'm done. Do not care lol.

I just wanted to point out that some of us drive in chill mode and like longest range possible for road trips. We aren't all Ansel dante

That’s true, except I’m not on an crusade to convince anyone, just countering the nonsense being posted by some people over and over. But to your point:

Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.

 

[Tigers]

That’s true, except I’m not on an crusade to convince anyone, just countering the nonsense being posted by some people over and over. But to your point:

That's all I'm trying to do. Think there are people on both sides.

 

[Bill Price]

Yep meant optimistic. ‘optimizing’ is more appropriate for @2021plaid and his algorithm.

Wait a minute! Are you anthropomorphizing the bot @2021plaid? I see you used the pronoun "his" in your statement. Shouldn't you have used "it's" for a bot?

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Wait a minute! Are you anthropomorphizing the bot @2021plaid? Is see you used the pronoun "his" in your statement. Shouldn't you have used "it's" for a bot?

Well he can see my full profile, so he knows I'm a male.

 

[127.0.0.0]

Had the delivery appointment confirmed for tomorrow the 18th, Now they just called and saying they do NOT have the car yet, so they are moving it to Next week for the 24th
..
Anyone else having similar issues less than 24 hours and they moved the appointment.

I am also very close to Fremont Factory so asked them if, I could pick it up there, Tesla is saying that vehicle is still in production so cannot do that either.. Hmm I wonder how that is true since Vin is already assigned..

 

[jaguar36]

I have replaced five wheels on my BMW 750 with M suspension. All potholes. Hope the 21s are better. Our 22” on our X do well.

I went through 2 or 3 BMW wheels on my last car, but have been driving my S with 21s for a couple of years now without any issues.

 

[Blue Stuff]

My car is social distancing.

More like trying to gt away from the stench of gasoline.