Ok, an update from the store.
William was friendly and helpful, but struggled a bit looking for the gate date and headlight code. He did say the birthdate was March 3 though, positively. That date seems to be right when I released the hold and got notified of the VIN. As of today, the EDD is still the same. 3/16 - 3/20.
So far, this is what I had:
Plaid ordered Jan 8.
Received a VIN Jan 26.
Placed my order on up to 30 day hold Jan 30. (Tesla said "up to 30 days").
Didn't hear from Tesla before I released the hold on March 3.
The next day a VIN was assigned 4727xx EDD March 16 - 20 in Dallas.
They withdrew the money for the car overnight 3/11.
I note it's freezing and windy here today, so I didn't expect to see many people out. It's late for this weather in the area. The store was staffed by 4 people, all of whom were with customers. No cars on the floor, which is like it's been over a year now.