Model X sales versus other large luxury SUV's

[AnxietyRanger]

Let's forget each other's personal opinions and experiences and just look at the sales figures. Pretty obvious the car isn't selling anywhere near where Tesla thought it would. I think it will get much worse over the next 12-18 months. The S, though being a vehicle type that people simply aren't buying these days, has increase its sales at least 50% every year. As 2017 goes by, the real determination as to the X's success will be the quarterly sales numbers. Will the X achieve the kind of success (in terms of growing sales) that the S did - that's the real question. It should be able to with no problem if people like it as much as you think, since it is in a class of vehicles that is selling like hotcakes. We'll see.

I agree that going beyond personal experiences and anecdotes is important in really looking at the progress and potential of the Model X. It sits in a massive class of cars. Premium SUVs are what made Porsche go from miniscule to relatively large. The class is much bigger than that of premium sedans. Since H2 Tesla has certainly reached any production constraints and the only constraint (aside from circa one month AP2 delay) has been how much demand they can tickle every quarter with their demand lever games.

Why is not Model X selling many times more than Model S? Price is certainly one factor, but even with the price it should be selling more than Model S since its class is larger.

The thing is, Model S has massively great utility in its class. Model X is compromised. The Model S is a 7-seater, folding, cargo, roof-rack, everything. It is a very usable vehicle for many purposes, given it size. More than usually. Exotic and exciting for sure, but not too much so. With Model X you can not use roof-racks, you have garage concerns, the 6/7 seaters have no folding second row... it does not even have a trunk cover. And it is quite weird for people who may already feel apprehensive jumping into an EV.

Consider if Model X were simply the Model S made into an SUV... everything utility-wise the Model S has + towing and even more space. For the fan (myself included) it would not be as exciting a car, but I bet you it would have been here sooner, it would have cost less and it would have sold tons more.

I get it this is speculation. But for me it seems pretty realistic speculation.

Hmmm. A post today on another thread says his vin is 41000+. Considering that production didn't ramp up til March last year, I think Tesla is pretty happy with progress.

Production started in September 2015, though. After many quarters of delays. Why did it ramp-up so slow?

And by all accounts delayed by change of falcon wing mechanism, second row (special demands due to falcon wings) and, lo and behold, seals... which are a special case in a car with falcon wings. Also falcon wing issues, sensors and alignment have been one of those constant nags in early cars.

Pretty much everything we know about the delays in Model X, which were to the tune of years, can be traced back to the falcon wings. And we had to wait over a year for quite compromised folding action (the five seater), again because falcon wings required specialized seating.

I am pretty sure Tesla is not happy with the Model X progress at all in totality. Elon mentioning that it probably shouldn't have been made goes some way admitting that.

Look, I am happy that it was made. But those falcon wings are a pretty sad story in so many ways.

 

[AndreyATC]

With 3 small kids, I can't thank FWD enough. Whole experience with Model X is just awesome. I've had X5, GL and Honda Pilot for some time, but nothing come even close to fun, performance, utility and space. And I'm not even talking about tech or wow factor. This car just works.
Find me an SUV that can fit as much cargo while sitting 7 ppl. Chances are, you can't park that monster in your garage and be lucky to get anything over 10mpg

 

[Snerruc]

With 3 small kids, I can't thank FWD enough. Whole experience with Model X is just awesome. I've had X5, GL and Honda Pilot for some time, but nothing come even close to fun, performance, utility and space. And I'm not even talking about tech or wow factor. This car just works.
Find me an SUV that can fit as much cargo while sitting 7 ppl. Chances are, you can't park that monster in your garage and be lucky to get anything over 10mpg

A surburban can seat 8 with the standard interior, hold all their luggage, haul a box on top , and pull a 20ft skiboat at 75 mph for over 350 miles between stops while getting 14. Mpg. My son does it all the time on summer trips. You must have teeny garages if it doesn 't fit.

 

[AndreyATC]

A surburban can seat 8 with the standard interior, hold all their luggage, haul a box on top , and pull a 20ft skiboat at 75 mph for over 350 miles between stops while getting 14. Mpg. My son does it all the time on summer trips. You must have teeny garages if it doesn 't fit.

Why limit your self to suburban?
Maybe one should get a sprinter van or better yet, school bus

 

[Electroman]

I suspect Model X would probably sell twice as much with standard doors and just 5 seats and $20K less..

 

[Saghost]

I suspect Model X would probably sell twice as much with standard doors and just 5 seats and $20K less..

Pretty sure that the $20k matters a lot more than the other factors - and the the doors are not either ~20% of the production cost or ~20% of the development cost they need to make up.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Pretty sure that the $20k matters a lot more than the other factors - and the the doors are not either ~20% of the production cost or ~20% of the development cost they need to make up.

Who knows, but what I do know is that the falcon wing doors and everything stemming from those doors (second-row seat and seal issues) are very likely a big, big part of that $20k price difference. If not, in fact, all of it.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I suspect Model X would probably sell twice as much with standard doors and just 5 seats and $20K less..

And it wouldn't have to be only a five seater either. Designing a traditional third row would have been trivial in a regular door setup.

Think of it: Take a Model S, make it higher (as well as make it sit a little higher) like the current Model X, use the extra height to add in a traditional third row, design the shape a little bigger and that's your EV SUV. It would most definitely have been cheaper and less controversial sell. You could even have an openable panoramic sunroof and rear door pockets/side cup holders. And that second-row middle seat would have had adult headroom. And making every rear seat in the house fold flat would have been easy peasy.

The car would have likely been out 2 years sooner and indeed cost only a trivial amount more than a similarly equipped Model S (basically a cost for more sheet metal). And it would have likely had a higher margin for Tesla and less warranty costs. They could have added the other things like automated (regular) doors and HEPA filters through a later facelift like they did on the Model S.

Now would such a "Model X" have been weirdmobile exciting? Of course not. There would be a few corner cases where it would be worse than the current one (child seats probably being the only major one). But it would have been to EV SUVs what Model S was to EV sedans, very compelling regular automobile made EV. The positives would have very likely exceeded the negatives manyfold. And it could have had those extending door handles for a small touch of magic.

Especially since it turned out Tesla could not really implement Model X they way they wanted to. The production falcon wings only marginally improve third row access (perhaps some tight parking scenarios, offset by other low-ceiling scenarios that are a problem). You still have to move the second row to get out of the third, unlike in the wider-doored prototype. And the big one: no folding seven seater unlike in the prototype, because designing folding/moving second-row with integrated seatbelts (requirement of the falcon wings) was apparently very hard given the U.S. safety spec.

It is actually interesting to note that with the Model S Tesla was guided by the principle of no weirdmobile. They avoided pretty much all of the gimmicks that other EVs did and went for a highly usable regular car shape that was further improved by the natural benefits of an EV, namely no driveshaft and a large frunk - helped additionally by the fact that they actually made a hatchback of it, rather than sedan proper. Model S is almost like the best of the both worlds between a sedan and a wagon.

With Model X they created the biggest weirdmobile of them all with the falcon wings and monopost seating. I was hoping Tesla learned a lesson on why other manufacturers are so flamboyant with their concept designs, yet go conservative on the actual production. What worries me a little is that Tesla did not seem to learn all these lessons for Model 3 either. I am talking of the trunk. They have been so mesmerized by their glass designs (the roof) that, at least on the prototype, they missed a huge opportunity of giving the Model 3 similar practicality as the Model S has with a large trunk opening.

In closing - circling back to the Model X we have - don't get me wrong, I love the fact that it is a weirdmobile, because it is a weirdmobile for me. I am happy it was made. But the thing is, objectively speaking, I have to say I believe a regular EV SUV would have sold far more, partly because it would have been available sooner, partly because it would have been significantly cheaper, but mostly because it would have tapped better into the vast market that is the premium SUV with a less controversial, higher interior utility design.

 

[Electroman]

You elaborated very well on all the reasons for the conclusion I made in my post earlier ! Well done.

i have had some people complain that those weird doors were making them uncomfortable. "its a unique design", "it looks cool", "but not sure what problem it solves, though", "do they sell one with regular doors?", are the typical phrases I have heard from some otherwise quite interested folks

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Thank you @mkjayakumar, appreciate it.

i have had some people complain that those weird doors were making them uncomfortable. "its a unique design", "it looks cool", "but not sure what problem it solves, though", "do they sell one with regular doors?", are the typical phrases I have seen from some otherwise quite interested folks

Basically, the Model X is Tesla's BMW i8. Design-wise. It catches the eye and captures the imagination in a way that Model S simply does not do.

But beyond that wow-effect and the extra glances and the press it gets for it, when it comes down to buying it, that design will limit its appeal. Especially once regular-doored EV SUV competition hits the market next year.

It will be very interesting to see if Tesla continues to push the falcon wings with Model Y. I mean surely they upside is that they have made all this R&D on the concept, it would be easier to repeat. But on the other hand the idea has even less merit in a two row car. Though maybe such big design decisions on Model Y were locked in long ago, so maybe they went with whatever was the original idea...

I guess the real test is the second generation Model X eventually. Tesla has had time to take this all in by then and design based on that. Will they continue as is or go after improving on the falcon wings (wider opening for third row access? roof-rack solution through e.g. disabling one side?) or will they simply dump them...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I wonder how hard it would be for Tesla to make a regular doored variant of the Model X.

I get it it would basically be a completely new car in many ways, but on the other hand, Tesla's rather unique way of incrementally improving their cars suggests if anyone would do such a thing, it would be Tesla.

I don't expect them to do it, though. Given their focus is on the Model 3. Model X sales - in the end - are not so important for Tesla as similar class sales are for, say, Porsche. So even if it remains a slow seller, the incentive to do something about it is not necessarily very big.

 

[MXWing]

I wonder how hard it would be for Tesla to make a regular doored variant of the Model X.

I get it it would basically be a completely new car in many ways, but on the other hand, Tesla's rather unique way of incrementally improving their cars suggests if anyone would do such a thing, it would be Tesla.

I don't expect them to do it, though. Given their focus is on the Model 3. Model X sales - in the end - are not so important for Tesla as similar class sales are for, say, Porsche. So even if it remains a slow seller, the incentive to do something about it is not necessarily very big.

If you are going to make a sliding door 3 row Tesla it would be the Model V. V for van.

I had an odyssey which I was able to get rid of with the Model X. It was annoying to get people in and out of those 3rd rows. Without Fwd, those second rows have to go way forward.

The X is fine as is. If sales were a priority they would bring the 60D back and figure out how to do 7 seats fold flat.

If you want to see the closest competitor to a Model X check out the two row five seat Jaguar i-pace.

I'm not impressed a all with it.

It may not seem that much on paper but having six seats puts the X in a class of its own.

If you have two kids and want to take two grandparents out you are SOL on any five seat SUV. That would be the case with us and many others I am sure.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

If you are going to make a sliding door 3 row Tesla it would be the Model V. V for van.

Well, I am not even thinking about a sliding door. I was simply suggesting having made Model X similar to Audi Q7 for example (regular doors, three rows), would have allowed releasing it year(s) earlier, at a cheaper price and speculated it probably would have sold lots more.

I had an odyssey which I was able to get rid of with the Model X. It was annoying to get people in and out of those 3rd rows. Without Fwd, those second rows have to go way forward.

The second row has to go forward even with the falcon wings we got for most people. I agree the prototype did have wider falcon wings that allowed better third row access without moving seats, but alas, that did not make it into production. Any benefit there is limited at best, especially given the falcon wing opening issues - if it refuses/is unable to open fully/properly, things get trickier again.

I do concede the one area falcon wings do excel in is putting in babies and baby seats. But that is one upside against numerous downsides...

The X is fine as is. If sales were a priority they would bring the 60D back and figure out how to do 7 seats fold flat.

I agree Model X sales are probably not a priority, Model 3 is the priority. But given the relative class Model X is in, is 4-5 times larger than that of the Model S, its lackluster sales point to downsides. Doors seem to be a commonly mentioned one in anecdotal experience.

If you want to see the closest competitor to a Model X check out the two row five seat Jaguar i-pace.

It may not seem that much on paper but having six seats puts the X in a class of its own.

I agree limited competition means some people will go for the Model X despite reservations about the doors - because they want an EV and one that seats 6-7. However, I'm thinking more along the lines of the competition being e.g. Volvo XC90. If Model X doesn't seem to work, people may just go elsewhere. How many of these buyers have been alienated by the falcon wings? I speculate quite a few.

IMO, when discussing sales and marketing, the big question is, have the falcon wings sold more Teslas than a Model-S-turned-into-SUV basic Model X would have sold? I speculate the latter would have been available sooner, cost much less and had significantly more demand. It may have even had less weight and thus longer range. Even though personally I would have been sad for such a Model X being introduced instead of the one we got...

 

[WarpedOne]

But given the relative class Model X is in, is 4-5 times larger than that of the Model S, its lackluster sales point to downsides...

This is how lackluster looks like?

3Q 2015: 6
4Q 2015: 206
1Q 2016: 2,400
2Q 2016: 4,638
3Q 2016: 8,774
4Q 2016: 9,500

Q.E.D.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

This is how lackluster looks like?

3Q 2015: 6
4Q 2015: 206
1Q 2016: 2,400
2Q 2016: 4,638
3Q 2016: 8,774
4Q 2016: 9,500

Q.E.D.

Lackluster compared to Model S sales and Model X form-factor's (premium SUV) 4-5 times larger segment than the one Model S sits in (premium sedan).

 

[WarpedOne]

I see 146.200% YOY growth in Q3 and much slower YOY growth in Q4, only 4611%.
q3:q4 growth is abbysmal ... only 8%.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

My point is that with a natural target market (premium SUVs) many times the size of the Model S market (premium sedans), Model X should be selling at least twice as much as Model S (and if we ignore price, perhaps even as much as four times as much), now that it clearly has ramped up.

If Model X continues to grow beyond Model S, perhaps it will still be fine sales-wise. If it stagnates at Model S levels, then cleary it has failed to capture its market potential.

Now, Tesla may not care anymore much. Model X is what it is. Their eyes are on the price money that is the Model 3. But had they dropped the FWD idea back in the day, they would IMO quite likely be much further along (earlier start, quicker ramp-up, cheaper car, better acceptance).

 

[Electroman]

I agree Model X sales are probably not a priority, Model 3 is the priority. But given the relative class Model X is in, is 4-5 times larger than that of the Model S, its lackluster sales point to downsides. Doors seem to be a commonly mentioned one in anecdotal experience.

Agreed. We can keep the head in the sand, and keep saying doors will have no impact on sales. But the ground reality is different.

It is not clear which segment Model X is trying to satisfy the most? Mini-vans soccer moms? I guess it failed miserably on that. Cross over SUVs? too pricey for that. Large size SUVs? poor cargo space (relative to XC 90 and HIghlander and X5) and no roof rack. If X had been just a larger 'S' with a form factor of a cross over SUV and with boring, stupid, sedentary 19th century doors and with no more than $5k price above S, by this time you will be seeing twice the sales as 'S.

This will go down in history and business courses as one of the 'shoot yourself in the foot' moment.

 

[vandacca]

Agreed. We can keep the head in the sand, and keep saying doors will have no impact on sales. But the ground reality is different.

It is not clear which segment Model X is trying to satisfy the most? Mini-vans soccer moms? I guess it failed miserably on that. Cross over SUVs? too pricey for that. Large size SUVs? poor cargo space (relative to XC 90 and HIghlander and X5) and no roof rack. If X had been just a larger 'S' with a form factor of a cross over SUV and with boring, stupid, sedentary 19th century doors and with no more than $5k price above S, by this time you will be seeing twice the sales as 'S.

This will go down in history and business courses as one of the 'shoot yourself in the foot' moment.

I agree with what you have written. However, there are some positive aspects to these weirdo doors too. For example, all the publicity and attention it has brought to Tesla. Also, there is some added utility with those doors (eg. better access, opening in tight spaces, etc.). However, I do agree that the overall utility may be less (eg. no roof rack).

Now, the net effect of having the doors may still be negative (that still needs to be decided), but not as negative as you made it sound.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I agree with what you have written. However, there are some positive aspects to these weirdo doors too. For example, all the publicity and attention it has brought to Tesla. Also, there is some added utility with those doors (eg. better access, opening in tight spaces, etc.). However, I do agree that the overall utility may be less (eg. no roof rack).

Now, the net effect of having the doors may still be negative (that still needs to be decided), but not as negative as you made it sound.

In the end, the main benefit of Model X comes down to the "no weirdmobiles" company creating the ultimate weirdmobile of them all - and the public relations halo that comes with it. I agree, that effect certainly is real. Model X will definitely go down in history, but if it goes down as a failure, it will be more the DeLorean kind of failure than a Pontiac Aztek.

I'm not saying the falcon wings didn't attempt to address some real issues as well. In the Model X it just pretty much failed to do so (third row access not improved nearly as much as prototype, no folding flat 7-seating due to wings requiring in-seat seatbelts, no real roof-rack solution, probably too limited sensors, not to mention quality issues still).

Child seat access is perhaps the only one they got right, because even access in tight spaces is often offset by trouble accessing the seats in low-ceiling areas. Some of these could be rectified, but would it be worth it...