Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Mrbrock]

Interesting video on the potential for higher pack voltages from the 4680 pack:

Faster Supercharging, more compatibility with CCS charging, and also the potential to add 4 more ribbons of 69 cells to the AWD SR pack, and enable 380 miles of range for an LR+.

His assumption that the packs cut up with 828 cells are LR is wrong. We know a “full” pack of 4680 is around 960 cells per initial reports.

Even his initial assumption (81 kWh with the 828 cells) is false. Already proven to be ~68 kWh on the basis of the EPA docs.

You are missing that the Standard AWD pack, that is ~68kWh, only has 690 cells. (Or at least that is what people are reporting.)

No, it’s 828. Full is 960.

What’s the source for that? Seems more like wishful thinking to me. More likely the 828 cell battery is what’s going into the cars they’re currently building, and the 966 or whatever will be the LR.

Yes.

Yeah anyone who's assumptions start with the 828 cell pack being 80+ KWH can be safely ignored.

yep.

Do you honestly believe that a power point slide from over a year ago estimating the 4680 cell at 5x more capacity than the 2170 (of THAT time) means that you can take the 18 Wh of -todays- 2170 (which is up from what it used to be) and multiply by exactly 5.00 to get the field performance of the 4680 cell as seen in final production form?

Also... if the MYAWD is being made with a secret pack that uses additional plastic blocks to eliminate another 100-odd cells... why does it weigh so much in the EPA cert? Just how heavy are those fillers?

Here's the realistic math. The 4680 comes in just under 90 Wh because it didn't hit exactly 5.00 times the capacity of todays 2170. Call it 88 Wh. 88 x 828 == 72 KWh. Save 3 KWh operating margin to not run the pack to dead 0 (same as is done in the 2170 LR pack), and bingo - 828 cells gives you the MYAWD 69 KWh 279 miles exactly as shown at Giga Texas event.

Yes, 828 at 69kwh usable makes most sense.

Remember battery day was more than 1.5 years ago and at that point 4680 cells were still in the R&D phase. The production 4680 cells may differ from what was anticipated back then, due to cost or manufacturing constraints. Therefore. any numbers/claims made back then as to performance may simply no longer be valid. At this point we really do not know what is the performance of the actual production 4680 cells.

I think the fundamental question is if the 828 cell battery shown at CyberRodeo is the one used in the new MY Standard AWD (the most likely case since that is the MY version currently being build in Austin) or is for the MY-LR. Those assuming it is for LR come up with a very different set of performance numbers than those that assume if for the Standard AWD model.

Finally more people are using logic. Following what has been presented and making logical conclusions not unsubstantiated jumps and hyperbole for clicks.

 

[SageBrush]

It's not 5x more energy dense, it stores 5x more total energy (due to being 5x larger).
The larger diameter is less space-efficient, which they're making up for with improved details in the cell construction as you note.

The 6x power is a slight improvement

It this translates into a 20% improvement in charging time from 10 - 70% it will be much more than slight so far as I am concerned.

I think about it this way: all else being equal, charging times on long trips are about inversely proportional to battery size. If the 1.2x increased power results in 1.2x less charging time, it is ~ equivalent to a 20% larger battery. This is about the same as getting the charging performance of 100 kWh 2170 pack from an ~ 80 kWh 4880 pack.

At $400/kWh retail pricing, that is a $8,000 price advantage in terms of charging performance.

 

[TriKKyOne]

Remember battery day was more than 1.5 years ago and at that point 4680 cells were still in the R&D phase. The production 4680 cells may differ from what was anticipated back then, due to cost or manufacturing constraints. Therefore. any numbers/claims made back then as to performance may simply no longer be valid. At this point we really do not know what is the performance of the actual production 4680 cells.

I think the fundamental question is if the 828 cell battery shown at CyberRodeo is the one used in the new MY Standard AWD (the most likely case since that is the MY version currently being build in Austin) or is for the MY-LR. Those assuming it is for LR come up with a very different set of performance numbers than those that assume if for the Standard AWD model.

What freaks me out is that if the R&D 4680 numbers don't come to fruition, what does that mean for a 500 mile CT? Without the level of gains and efficiencies they were thinking, the CT is going to weigh somewhere between a Lightning and Hummer. It's "dumb" range coming at the expense of weight caused by more batteries. I know many focus on Idra and the presses or new features but I'm thinking the main driver of CT delay is the weight/range issue. Pure speculation but with the long time to start making 4680s and how we're seeing them used, I really think that's what's going on.

 

[terranx]

What freaks me out is that if the R&D 4680 numbers don't come to fruition, what does that mean for a 500 mile CT? Without the level of gains and efficiencies they were thinking, the CT is going to weigh somewhere between a Lightning and Hummer. It's "dumb" range coming at the expense of weight caused by more batteries. I know many focus on Idra and the presses or new features but I'm thinking the main driver of CT delay is the weight/range issue. Pure speculation but with the long time to start making 4680s and how we're seeing them used, I really think that's what's going on.

500 mile cybertruck will likely go the way of the 500 mile plaid+

 

[Polymer]

His assumption that the packs cut up with 828 cells are LR is wrong. We know a “full” pack of 4680 is around 960 cells per initial reports.



No, it’s 828. Full is 960.

I would tend to agree that his assumption that 828 is the LR is probably not the case....although 966 or 960 doesn't really matter....960 would still mean a larger battery pack than the current Model Y LR although just slightly.

 

[kabin]

What freaks me out is that if the R&D 4680 numbers don't come to fruition, what does that mean for a 500 mile CT? Without the level of gains and efficiencies they were thinking, the CT is going to weigh somewhere between a Lightning and Hummer. It's "dumb" range coming at the expense of weight caused by more batteries. I know many focus on Idra and the presses or new features but I'm thinking the main driver of CT delay is the weight/range issue. Pure speculation but with the long time to start making 4680s and how we're seeing them used, I really think that's what's going on.

A few months back Elon said cost was a big challenge for the CT and it hasn't gotten any better since then with Ukraine, Inflation, ...

 

[Moopwomp]

A few months back Elon said cost was a big challenge for the CT and it hasn't gotten any better since then with Ukraine, Inflation, ...

Yeah, there’s basically zero chance they honor original CT pricing. Zero.

 

[TriKKyOne]

500 mile cybertruck will likely go the way of the 500 mile plaid+

Feel like it’s a requirement for me with towing anyway. I get his argument on 500 mi cars but the truck needs to tow a reasonable distance with inefficient aero. Sigh.

 

[TriKKyOne]

Yeah, there’s basically zero chance they honor original CT pricing. Zero.

Agreed and I’m totally OK with that. I would be happy if the honor the FSD price. The entire selling point with that was that you’d “lock it in” before the price went up.

It’s actually the slightly frustrating part with Elon targeting affordable at the moment with the lineup where it is. Increase the cost 20-30k and you still have buyers. Would you rather an F150 Lightning or a CT for 90K+?

 

[ZenRockGarden]

500 mile cybertruck will likely go the way of the 500 mile plaid+

They can totally make a 500 mile range CT, it's just that it'll cost cubic dollars for that size battery pack.

As best I hear it, there's some tension right now on make the CT either really-cool with all kinds of features and range and speed, vs making it elemental and affordable.

 

[scottf200]

They can totally make a 500 mile range CT, it's just that it'll cost cubic dollars for that size battery pack.

As best I hear it, there's some tension right now on make the CT either really-cool with all kinds of features and range and speed, vs making it elemental and affordable.

ala: 2022 GMC Hummer EV Weight, Range and Battery Size | Edmunds

 

[TriKKyOne]

ala: 2022 GMC Hummer EV Weight, Range and Battery Size | Edmunds

Correct. I think a 500mi CT will weigh way too much if it requires that size pack. At the end of the day, I think CT should launch edition at 100k ish with all the bells and whistles. The affordable dream is gone. But what I don’t want is a 9,000lb monster.

 

[ub-chariot]

Not sure if this was discussed before. But with the 4680 cells being the structural part of the car's floor, how would they replace the battery when needed? The seats are mounted directly on the battery pack. I guess that would involve a lot of work to get it done. And I would wonder if replacing the structural battery pack could impact the structural rigidity of the car. Will we see a extremely high bill for replacing the battery due to complicated process and high labor fee?

 

[MP3Mike]

Not sure if this was discussed before. But with the 4680 cells being the structural part of the car's floor, how would they replace the battery when needed? The seats are mounted directly on the battery pack. I guess that would involve a lot of work to get it done. And I would wonder if replacing the structural battery pack could impact the structural rigidity of the car. Will we see a extremely high bill for replacing the battery due to complicated process and high labor fee?

They already have to pull out part of the interior on the 2170 Model 3/Ys to replace the battery pack.

 

[advocate8]

Feel like it’s a requirement for me with towing anyway. I get his argument on 500 mi cars but the truck needs to tow a reasonable distance with inefficient aero. Sigh.

That’s a reasonable concern. You don’t see many pickups actually towing stuff... maybe I dunno, one mile out of every 500 across all trucks on the road? But if youre a boat person it's real and you need it to deliver more than 80 miles of range dragging a 26-foot center console or whatever.

EPA range quirks from one manufacturer to another aside, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of magic left out there... no 50 percent improvements in efficiency/range on the horizon.
All the casting in the world is only going to shave a couple of hundred pounds from a vehicle at most... so increasing the use of castings isn’t a grail, except for manufacturing speed and labor cost. That’s where it’s genius, not in adding magical performance to a vehicle. And at some point, casting is too much. A cast door would likely be heavier than current type.
In truth, going the other direction -- tedious amounts of labor building a full carbon fiber chassis -- would be the ultimate performance gain for handling and acceleration at least, but wouldn’t do much for range at 70 mph. And would be totally impractical to mass produce.

And batteries... the 4680 form factor even at best is only going to yield tiny improvements in the amount of power stored per pound, as it is essentially just a larger version of the current battery in terms of chemistry (I’m simplyfiyign the we vs dry thing]. The battery would have to be radically different to yield a 500 mile CT at a reasonable weight. Never mind a 600 mile roadster that any reasonable person would expect to handle like a sportscar.

 

[WhiteWi]

That’s a reasonable concern. You don’t see many pickups actually towing stuff... maybe I dunno, one mile out of every 500 across all trucks on the road? But if youre a boat person it's real and you need it to deliver more than 80 miles of range dragging a 26-foot center console or whatever.

EPA range quirks from one manufacturer to another aside, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of magic left out there... no 50 percent improvements in efficiency/range on the horizon.
All the casting in the world is only going to shave a couple of hundred pounds from a vehicle at most... so increasing the use of castings isn’t a grail, except for manufacturing speed and labor cost. That’s where it’s genius, not in adding magical performance to a vehicle. And at some point, casting is too much. A cast door would likely be heavier than current type.
In truth, going the other direction -- tedious amounts of labor building a full carbon fiber chassis -- would be the ultimate performance gain for handling and acceleration at least, but wouldn’t do much for range at 70 mph. And would be totally impractical to mass produce.

And batteries... the 4680 form factor even at best is only going to yield tiny improvements in the amount of power stored per pound, as it is essentially just a larger version of the current battery in terms of chemistry (I’m simplyfiyign the we vs dry thing]. The battery would have to be radically different to yield a 500 mile CT at a reasonable weight. Never mind a 600 mile roadster that any reasonable person would expect to handle like a sportscar.

Time will tell.

 

[advocate8]

Time will tell.

Prob the only wise thing that can be said on this thread for another….six months? Eight?

 

[RubberToe]

Prob the only wise thing that can be said on this thread for another….six months? Eight?

Time will tell...

RT

 

[Fairchild]

500 mile cybertruck will likely go the way of the 500 mile plaid+

Forget 500........................
A recently-published patent on the Cybertruck’s user interface has now provided further hints that the all-electric pickup’s actual range may really be far above its initial “500+-mile” estimate. As could be seen in 21 out of the UI patent’s 33 drawings, the Cybertruck’s range was listed as 610 miles. This was quite interesting considering that the patent’s illustrations appeared to be screenshots from the Cybertruck’s upcoming UI.

 

[DrGriz]

That screenshot says Nov 3 2019. Do you have anything more recent? Like, since the pandemic began?