Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Also, there is no need to wait for a refresh to convert the MY lineup to 4680. Going from a SR to an LR or P is merely a matter of putting more batteries in the pack, different brakes (P), etc. Don't even need a different line, all versions can be produced once battery supply is sufficient.

There is one really big reason to wait... they do not have enough 4680's to support coversion of the MYP or MYLR. Sure they can make them whenever they choose to but they can't produce enough replace the 2170's not even close.

The SR is going to suck up every battery they make in the short term and next year they start CT production and they won't have enough for that which is why it looks like they are holding off till Q3.

 

[BGOwner]

There is one really big reason to wait... they do not have enough 4680's to support coversion of the MYP or MYLR. Sure they can make them whenever they choose to but they can't produce enough replace the 2170's not even close.

The SR is going to suck up every battery they make in the short term and next year they start CT production and they won't have enough for that which is why it looks like they are holding off till Q3.

People have to remember, the CT is a year to 18 months away. 4680 should be in full swing in Giga Texas by then, and Panasonic shouldn’t be far behind to starts it’s production of 4680

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

People have to remember, the CT is a year to 18 months away. 4680 should be in full swing in Giga Texas by then, and Panasonic shouldn’t be far behind to starts it’s production of 4680

Ignore the Tesla Semi, the CT and even the SR Modely Y.
Based upon current production numbers for the MYLR and MYP they would need to peroduce 3 million 4680 cells per week just to match current production.

That is not happening any time soon.

 

[MP3Mike]

GigaBerlin is already producing MYs using both front and rear chassis mega-castings

I didn't think they were using the front casting yet.

 

[Mrbrock]

It should still be free. Lowering it to $200 does not promise the price won’t go back up to $400 and eventually to $500 in order to force people get wall charger. I installed Nema 14-50 myself and don’t want to spend money for electrician and wall connector.

The last statement from Elon is a warning, hey guys you already know how we play here… to get your cars early pay for FSD.. since there is less adoption. So, get the wall connector now cause the mobile connector will get to $400 and eventually to $500… you know why chip/supply chain shortage. And then wall connector will be $600-$800 and you guessed it right… more demand so jack up the price. Yes, you guys are getting smart, again you guessed it right.. this way we’ll recoup way more than the discount we gave you on mobile connector.

If you installed 14-50 yourself, you can install the wc yourself. Same wires and breaker (guessing you didn’t follow code with gfci breaker).

There is a leaked document showing upcoming tesla production start estimates and you can see that the Model Y has a refresh expected in 2027

This is likely when it will get 4680's (beyond the SR) so if anyone is holding out for 4680's on a MY the SR is going to be your only option for a while


View attachment 794725

Source? Looks interesting. Shows about 10 days to switch Fremont to NV56-2 but 0 days for Austin. Leads me to believe there will be no structural batteries at Fremont until this changeover. Only switching to front casting at some point which shouldnt require any retooling, just less assembly needed. And whatever the refresh for the -2 is, is just swapping new parts in, no need for retooling at Austin. Same batteries, maybe different body/interior panels?

The van/minibus was mentioned back in 2017 but maybe now it’s more of a delivery/sprinter van thing trying to compete with Rivian for Amazon/ups/fedex money? A nice little sister vehicle to the semi.

 

[oholladay]

If you installed 14-50 yourself, you can install the wc yourself. Same wires and breaker (guessing you didn’t follow code with gfci breaker).


Source? Looks interesting. Shows about 10 days to switch Fremont to NV56-2 but 0 days for Austin. Leads me to believe there will be no structural batteries at Fremont until this changeover. Only switching to front casting at some point which shouldnt require any retooling, just less assembly needed. And whatever the refresh for the -2 is, is just swapping new parts in, no need for retooling at Austin. Same batteries, maybe different body/interior panels?

The van/minibus was mentioned back in 2017 but maybe now it’s more of a delivery/sprinter van thing trying to compete with Rivian for Amazon/ups/fedex money? A nice little sister vehicle to the semi.

@ChrisZheng001 tweeted this out a few days ago. Others responded that it is from a consulting company. The complete document is available here. http://www.globalautoforecasts.com/afs_pm/addons/ProgramDirNAm.pdf

From what I can tell, there is no reason to believe they have proprietary knowledge.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

If you installed 14-50 yourself, you can install the wc yourself. Same wires and breaker (guessing you didn’t follow code with gfci breaker).


Source? Looks interesting. Shows about 10 days to switch Fremont to NV56-2 but 0 days for Austin. Leads me to believe there will be no structural batteries at Fremont until this changeover. Only switching to front casting at some point which shouldnt require any retooling, just less assembly needed. And whatever the refresh for the -2 is, is just swapping new parts in, no need for retooling at Austin. Same batteries, maybe different body/interior panels?

The van/minibus was mentioned back in 2017 but maybe now it’s more of a delivery/sprinter van thing trying to compete with Rivian for Amazon/ups/fedex money? A nice little sister vehicle to the semi.

Potential Tesla Cybertruck And Van Production Start Dates Shown In Leaked Document

I had to hunt down the document and this youtuber has it.

 

[Ron J.]

In today's YouTube drone flyover video from Joe T. he says only about 10% of the Gigatexas factory was open to the guests at Cyber Rodeo. The battery production portion of the factory was one of the off limits areas. During Elon's presentation there was a video showing 4680 cell production and it was said that was at Austin. It will be really interesting to learn what the ramp of 4680 production will be over the remainder of 2022. I guess there might be some clues at this week's first quarter earnings call, but more likely by time of the 2nd quarter earnings call in July.

 

[Andrew Smith]

Below picture from Reddit. Looks legit

 

[Firocity]

Below picture from Reddit. Looks legit

Seems to contradict itself. Says new orders after April 17th will need to buy it separately and then it says we will continue to deliver with the mobile connector for the next several weeks. They must not know that it takes more than several weeks to get your order.

 

[BGOwner]

Below picture from Reddit. Looks legit

Well it says new car orders. Would seem to indicate that if you ordered prior to April 17, you will get one. It also sounds like the reason for this is more that they ran out and can’t keep up with them.

 

[Andrew Smith]

Well it says new car orders. Would seem to indicate that if you ordered prior to April 17, you will get one. It also sounds like the reason for this is more that they ran out and can’t keep up with them.

That’s what it sounds like. I still don’t trust them. We’ll have to wait and watch as people take orders in the next few weeks.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Well it says new car orders. Would seem to indicate that if you ordered prior to April 17, you will get one. It also sounds like the reason for this is more that they ran out and can’t keep up with them.

Yea, I think they did this very poorly . They could have just added an option to the order page to include the mobile charger , a wall charger or no charger. They could have even defaulted it to none. Instead they are going to make you order it outside of your car order so you may have a car charger 6 months before the car arrives, you just need to hope it lasts at least a year.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

So if this turns out to be true it may be in the next model year, looks like the AMD's may e upgradeable but who knows if they ever do it..

Now the question is... do the holds begin again...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1515418233557467136

 

[WhiteWi]

Pretty sure 3/Y will never get second screen but we all know Cybertruck most likely will.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Below picture from Reddit. Looks legit

The big question is if you still get the CCS adapter so you can charge off the tesla network

 

[z355is]

Pretty sure 3/Y will never get second screen but we all know Cybertruck most likely will.

Exactly. These chips are used across the whole fleet so nothing earth shattering here.

 

[Mrbrock]

@ChrisZheng001 tweeted this out a few days ago. Others responded that it is from a consulting company. The complete document is available here. http://www.globalautoforecasts.com/afs_pm/addons/ProgramDirNAm.pdf

From what I can tell, there is no reason to believe they have proprietary knowledge.

Thanks for posting this. Seems to have good data on production of various models and refreshes.

 

[buddhafree]

Pretty sure 3/Y will never get second screen but we all know Cybertruck most likely will.

Agreed. Tesla probably won't add 2nd display for 3/Y but 3rd party may offer aftermarket screen options that can plug to the 2nd screen port...

 

[arbitrage000]

I know all the talk around GigaTexas is about the 4680 cells but will they be producing 2170 cars alongside the MYSR or will it only be MYSR until they are ready to have 4680 cells in the MYLR and MYP?

I had wondered if the release of the MYSR could decrease the waitlist for the LR and P as some may switch their orders to the SR to have a 4680 car and/or to theoretically get a car much sooner as you'd be front of the line if you order right away or switch your current LR/P order. One issue with that is that anyone who has an order in from before March will probably not save any money buying a SR over a LR so maybe there won't be many switchers??

Another thought I had is that I wondered if the SR may not be that much more inefficient for a roadtrip if the charging curve and speed is improved with the 4680 over the 2170. Shorter range but faster charging may even things out?? Just thinking out load.