Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[henderrj]

Another possible theory to add to the mix
Tesla normally upgrades the most expensive version first, but we see lots of MY LR with 19" tires in Texas. We also know that Tesla chose to use older/smaller batteries for their new Model S Plaid... Probably because bigger batteries can't provide enough sustained current required to achieve 0-60 performance numbers. This led me to think, what if new larger batteries have similar limitations? If this is true, then Austin will produce MY LR for some time before they either find a way to use 4680 cells in the Performance version or, at some point in the future, start to use new gigacast build with older 2170 cells.

I think the primary reason Tesla uses 18650s in the S and x is because they've already got the equipment to make them. They simply don't have enough battery making equipment to jump to the new formats. It makes no difference really as to performance, other than cooling, as you can put the same chemistry in any shape. But that equipment cost for producing batteries, that's in the multiplied millions, perhaps billions. It would be economically foolish to just throw the equipment away. I think we'll see 18650s around for a long time. At least until the equipment that makes them gets too old to use.

 

[TJ21CT]

Another possible theory to add to the mix
Tesla normally upgrades the most expensive version first, but we see lots of MY LR with 19" tires in Texas. We also know that Tesla chose to use older/smaller batteries for their new Model S Plaid... Probably because bigger batteries can't provide enough sustained current required to achieve 0-60 performance numbers. This led me to think, what if new larger batteries have similar limitations? If this is true, then Austin will produce MY LR for some time before they either find a way to use 4680 cells in the Performance version or, at some point in the future, start to use new gigacast build with older 2170 cells.

I don’t think it’s a limitation of the battery but yet the limitations of current availability of said batteries. Musk did mention the 4680’s and Austin in the earnings call but he didn’t specifically state that is all that would be used, if my memeory serves me right. He also stated battery supply is not an issue, generally speaking as well, to me that would mean allocation of current inventory until production of a newer battery is at full utilization. Austin cannot sit stagnant as a facility so of course they are going to be producing cars daily, have been since December. I think it’s worth keeping an eye on Panasonic’s updates as well as Tesla’s in-house capabilities and this would give for a better Austin timeline of 4680’s. If you want a MY then order one, if you want a 4680 I would wait until one is out in the wild.

 

[Mrbrock]

4680s are tabless, energy can flow out at any given point which reduces heat built up (think of merges in freeways). 4680 should have no issues with heat build up due to high discharge rates compared to cells with tabs. At least to a certain point. Maybe multiple 0-60 launches might cause issues but nothing like normal spirited everyday driving.

 

[Krobbler]

Elon has actually talked about thermal management struggles with prismatic and even talked about management is difficult on 4680. Time will tell if they are able to manage temps well enough to make it to the performance cars.

 

[Mrbrock]

Elon has actually talked about thermal management struggles with prismatic and even talked about management is difficult on 4680. Time will tell if they are able to manage temps well enough to make it to the performance cars.

And the cells being glued together for structural means either the cooling loops are glued in amd structural as well or only cool from top and bottom.

 

[StatVirus]

I just noticed that I've been moved to June-July. After the initial panic I realized it was just the normal monthy trade-in update. Normally I only get moved to June but this time I got a range which was odd . This happens every month when they revaluate my trade , they move me to the end of the line and ask for updated mileage. Then they lower the trade value a couple hundred ( even with the same mileage) then throw me back in line somewhere.

I guess if someone wants to place their car on hold without actually requesting a hold they can just not update their mileage on their tradein and they will remain at the end of the line for a while. Not sure how that will work long term or if they just remove your trade but its another option you can take without actually contacting anyone if you choose.

Interesting. So am I reading your signature right .. you get pushed out a month or so every time your trade-in mileage expires?

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Interesting. So am I reading your signature right .. you get pushed out a month or so every time your trade-in mileage expires?

Thats the way things have worked out so far but every time they reshuffle they could place you anywhere so when I enter the new mileage I should get an updated EDD in 7-14 days.

I think the pushing out of the month each time is just a coincidence

 

[voip-ninja]

Usually new factory does not equal better build quality immediately. Maybe over time as kinks are worked out.

Possibly but there will be experienced people from Fremont working at Austin during production ramp. The line in Fremont was basically jamming a square peg into a round hole, Austin will not have that issue, it will be a carbon copy of Giga China I and anecdotally the quality of the Chinese assembled vehicles is better than the ones being built in Fremont.

 

[BGOwner]

Thats the way things have worked out so far but every time they reshuffle they could place you anywhere so when I enter the new mileage I should get an updated EDD in 7-14 days.

I think the pushing out of the month each time is just a coincidence

OMG, you pushed out again. We were in sync for a while, which made sense as we both ordered at about same time and had profile completed around hte same time. Mine has been steady after last move starting at End of April. Info in Signature

 

[afscotch]

I just noticed that I've been moved to June-July. After the initial panic I realized it was just the normal monthy trade-in update. Normally I only get moved to June but this time I got a range which was odd . This happens every month when they revaluate my trade , they move me to the end of the line and ask for updated mileage. Then they lower the trade value a couple hundred ( even with the same mileage) then throw me back in line somewhere.

I guess if someone wants to place their car on hold without actually requesting a hold they can just not update their mileage on their tradein and they will remain at the end of the line for a while. Not sure how that will work long term or if they just remove your trade but its another option you can take without actually contacting anyone if you choose.

I thought about this... I got a call asking for the opportunity to give me a trade-in analysis Sat. I was skiing, and declined so they sent me a text asking for my trade-in car info. I didn't reply and Sunday night my EDD updated to "June". I replied I wasn't interested in a trade in estimate yesterday and then this morning my EDD updated to Mar 12-31. I don't think it is a coincidence, and I was considering stringing out the 'trade-in analysis request' given the reintroduction of Intel, but that scare seems to have passed. I don't think 4680 batteries are close enough, based on comments here, and since I'm west of Austin won't get a TX car anyway, so unless I'm prepared to string it out for a month or two, there's no point. I don't have to have the car now, but I'm trying to balance its delivery and cost avoidance with the current car combined with expected spikes in fuel costs when I'm driving 350-500 miles a week.

 

[Lccjblu]

I thought about this... I got a call asking for the opportunity to give me a trade-in analysis Sat. I was skiing, and declined so they sent me a text asking for my trade-in car info. I didn't reply and Sunday night my EDD updated to "June". I replied I wasn't interested in a trade in estimate yesterday and then this morning my EDD updated to Mar 12-31. I don't think it is a coincidence, and I was considering stringing out the 'trade-in analysis request' given the reintroduction of Intel, but that scare seems to have passed. I don't think 4680 batteries are close enough, based on comments here, and since I'm west of Austin won't get a TX car anyway, so unless I'm prepared to string it out for a month or two, there's no point. I don't have to have the car now, but I'm trying to balance its delivery and cost avoidance with the current car combined with expected spikes in fuel costs when I'm driving 350-500 miles a week.

that is an impressive number of EDD changes. wow!

 

[afscotch]

that is an impressive number of EDD changes. wow!

Thanks?!

I ran out of space... so "June" and then Mar 12-31 (my current one) aren't in there. All without any holds or other shenanigans either.

 

[Fairchild]

My EDD updated to 2/13-2/26. I’m strongly considering actually putting it on “hold” for the first time. I would be super upset if I miss Austin by a mere few days, especially when I’m been waiting almost a year already!

(MYLR, 5seat, Blue/Black, 20s, TOW, no FSD)

Sounds like a great plan. The SA here told me that they will send you a notice after it has been on HOLD for a while and tell you that you have to pull the trigger or they will CANCEL. Even if they CANCEL, it would be worth the $250 to get an Austin 4680 vehicle.

 

[pcmike]

Sounds like a great plan. The SA here told me that they will send you a notice after it has been on HOLD for a while and tell you that you have to pull the trigger or they will CANCEL. Even if they CANCEL, it would be worth the $250 to get an Austin 4680 vehicle.

No it wouldn’t. My order is from 4/7/21. I would never allow my order to actually be cancelled and 4680s or anything associated with them is definitely not worth a $9,000 price increase to reorder.

Anyhow, I should be taking delivery next week and I can’t wait, even without the 4680s.

 

[Fairchild]

No it wouldn’t. My order is from 4/7/21. I would never allow my order to actually be cancelled and 4680s or anything associated with them is definitely not worth a $9,000 price increase to reorder.

Anyhow, I should be taking delivery next week and I can’t wait, even without the 4680s.

Wow. Long wait and I thought my eight weeks was long. You can always sell it for a profit if you wish to get what you really want.

 

[popgodazipa]

Thats the way things have worked out so far but every time they reshuffle they could place you anywhere so when I enter the new mileage I should get an updated EDD in 7-14 days.

I think the pushing out of the month each time is just a coincidence

Pro tip: change your payment to cash. Add the trade in later once VIN assigned.

 

[John in LB]

Possibly but there will be experienced people from Fremont working at Austin during production ramp. The line in Fremont was basically jamming a square peg into a round hole, Austin will not have that issue, it will be a carbon copy of Giga China I and anecdotally the quality of the Chinese assembled vehicles is better than the ones being built in Fremont.

My MYLR was manufactured early January in Fremont. It now has almost 3000 miles on it and it has been pretty much flawless!

So... my "Square" car has been running great on the "Round" wheels provided!!

 

[Silence88]

I just noticed that I've been moved to June-July. After the initial panic I realized it was just the normal monthy trade-in update. Normally I only get moved to June but this time I got a range which was odd . This happens every month when they revaluate my trade , they move me to the end of the line and ask for updated mileage. Then they lower the trade value a couple hundred ( even with the same mileage) then throw me back in line somewhere.

I guess if someone wants to place their car on hold without actually requesting a hold they can just not update their mileage on their tradein and they will remain at the end of the line for a while. Not sure how that will work long term or if they just remove your trade but its another option you can take without actually contacting anyone if you choose.

I may have done this last year quite by accident, but it is a bit of story to set up scenario. Last February I placed an order on a nearby demo Model Y. When Tesla added an undisclosed delivery fee (the web page said no transportation fee) I rejected that vehicle before they moved it. At some point Tesla transitioned the order to a "regular" new order (because I hadn't spec'd anything out due to selecting demo) and attached my trade to the order. I was still vacillating between MY & MYP and my thinking at the time was to save a little cash by buying a demo, not realizing where the market was going & that in a very short time that demos would no longer be discounted and used cars would sell for more than new. Tesla matched me to a VIN or two, but I was still thinking demo. Come June Tesla says accept a new VIN or we will cancel the order. I said OK, but they never cancelled it. From June until November the order sat with incomplete trade-in and financing. Around November it dawned on me that I should forget about a MYP and might want to take steps to keep the MY order alive as the price had gone up significantly since I originally ordered so I completed the financing. Early December I got the confirm or cancel text that was going around at the time. I confirmed and a few days later Tesla removed my trade in from my account of their own volition. I now have a JUne 15 - July 13

 

[Ron J.]

Close to 140 new MYs (with covers) parked at the south end lot when Jeff Roberts did his drone flyover today. Since both drone operators (Jeff and Joe) only are at the gigafactory for a short time on a given day, we really don't know how many different MYs are cycling thru this lot each day. They have seen MYs coming out of the factory to the lot, MYs being taken from the lot to the charging stations and MYs being taken from the charging stations back inside the factory. However, these occasional snapshots of the lot do little to tell us how many MYs have actually been produced.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Close to 140 new MYs (with covers) parked at the south end lot when Jeff Roberts did his drone flyover today. Since both drone operators (Jeff and Joe) only are at the gigafactory for a short time on a given day, we really don't know how many different MYs are cycling thru this lot each day. They have seen MYs coming out of the factory to the lot, MYs being taken from the lot to the charging stations and MYs being taken from the charging stations back inside the factory. However, these occasional snapshots of the lot do little to tell us how many MYs have actually been produced.

some of those look like shells. Could be the angle.. should get a better look when he releases the video