New orders for MS now delivering in June 2018?

[lateplate]

Is it odd that deliveries are now showing as June, which is like 4 months out?

I just thought it was curious because I've been peeking at custom built MS's for a couple months, and they've always been about 60 days out to deliver according to the design studio. That seems to be the ballpark timeline in the Google Spreadsheet too. FWIW, this was a very basic configuration. 75D + AutoPilot, no other options.

I'm new here, so sorry if this delivery variance is common knowledge!

 

[OpenThirdEye]

According to this article, it's due to increased demand.

 

[u00mem9]

The Model S is a great car for the price. I think people are realizing that since there is no $35k M3...and no 35-7.5k regardless of wait, a Model S before the 7.5k rebate expires is a great value.

 

[lateplate]

Ha, of course Electrek posted that this morning. Hadn't seen that yet. Thanks @OpenThirdEye.

 

[Tiger]

Smoke screen trying to avoid Osborne effect. The delay is because of imminent refresh.

 

[freeewilly]

Model S and X are Tesla profit machines.

+1 on some kind of refresh or technology upgrade in the near future

 

[croman]

Smoke screen trying to avoid Osborne effect. The delay is because of imminent refresh.

They usually try to get as many orders in before the refresh is announced through demands levers like low interest or great rewards and they haven't done that.

It seems they really are getting plenty of demand.

 

[Tiger]

It seems they really are getting plenty of demand.

The order tracking sheet does not show evidence of above average demand: Model X Order/Delivery Tracking - Google Sheet

 

[jelloslug]

The order tracking sheet does not show evidence of above average demand: Model X Order/Delivery Tracking - Google Sheet

If it's because of why of what has been speculated, it's unlikely that the new buyers would show up on that spreadsheet.

 

[bob_p]

Another possibility...

Tesla is approaching the 200,000 US vehicle limit.

Perhaps Tesla is shifting some of the deliveries to outside of the US to push the 200,000th vehicle out a little further - and get more Model 3 cars delivered in the US with the $7500 rebate, as they quickly ramp up production.

The experience we had with our two Model S orders. In both cases, the actual delivery date was sooner than the estimated dates Tesla was providing to prospective customers.

 

[dbldwn02]

Another possibility...

Tesla is approaching the 200,000 US vehicle limit.

Perhaps Tesla is shifting some of the deliveries to outside of the US to push the 200,000th vehicle out a little further - and get more Model 3 cars delivered in the US with the $7500 rebate, as they quickly ramp up production.

The experience we had with our two Model S orders. In both cases, the actual delivery date was sooner than the estimated dates Tesla was providing to prospective customers.

Dude! I just posted this theory in the other thread. Glad I'm not the only one thinking the same thing.

 

[EinSV]

Tesla sold 28K S/X in Q4 of 2017 but only made 22K. Their maximum S/X production is about 25K/quarter so it appears that demand is greater than production capacity so wait times for both S and X are growing.

And Tesla has said high demand for S and X is what is causing the longer lead times.Tesla, Inc. Sees Surprising Demand For Model S and X

This is the simplest/obvious explanation so I am going with Occam’s razor and saying it is likely the correct one.

I also think an interior refresh on the S is extremely unlikely in the first half of the year. Disrupting S production when all hands are on deck to get out of Model 3 “production hell”? Not gonna happen IMO.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Another possibility...

Tesla is approaching the 200,000 US vehicle limit.

Perhaps Tesla is shifting some of the deliveries to outside of the US to push the 200,000th vehicle out a little further - and get more Model 3 cars delivered in the US with the $7500 rebate, as they quickly ramp up production.

The experience we had with our two Model S orders. In both cases, the actual delivery date was sooner than the estimated dates Tesla was providing to prospective customers.

Why would Tesla care about whether buyers received a tax credit? Model S and X are Tesla's highest margin cars, delaying those to push out more lower margin Model 3s makes no financial sense whatsoever. Think of this from Tesla's perspective, not the customer's.

 

[number12]

They usually try to get as many orders in before the refresh is announced through demands levers like low interest or great rewards and they haven't done that.

It seems they really are getting plenty of demand.

So they have a huge group of annoyed customer based that paid $100K for a car??

Speaking from someone that ordered ap1.0 1 week before Ap2.0 was announced.

Trust me there was backlash

 

[arubinst]

Another possibility...

Tesla is approaching the 200,000 US vehicle limit.

Perhaps Tesla is shifting some of the deliveries to outside of the US to push the 200,000th vehicle out a little further - and get more Model 3 cars delivered in the US with the $7500 rebate, as they quickly ramp up production.

The experience we had with our two Model S orders. In both cases, the actual delivery date was sooner than the estimated dates Tesla was providing to prospective customers.

Dude! I just posted this theory in the other thread. Glad I'm not the only one thinking the same thing.

Except that we have the same delays abroad for every battery size of both, the MS and the MX!

 

[Need]

Why would Tesla care about whether buyers received a tax credit? Model S and X are Tesla's highest margin cars, delaying those to push out more lower margin Model 3s makes no financial sense whatsoever. Think of this from Tesla's perspective, not the customer's.

Because they care about the sales for the rest of the quarter after the 200,000. They need to make sure the 200,000th car is sold at the beginning of a quarter and not at the end.

 

[number12]

I think we can agree it’s just a mixture of bad logistical execution and refresh/hardware improvement on the horizon that will Osborne current sales. Jk but seriously.