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Off topic galore
- Thread starter Mengy
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I watched the first Harry Potter film again last night.
Perhaps waving small sticks at our computer screens and chanting "Sharesteslium Leviosa!" will help?
MMs
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's false. Tony Seba presented graphs in that same presentation that made clear what the adoption rate of the automobile in the US was. He also makes clear multiple times that adoption rate is always specific to a particular geographic area, that adoption happens at different rates in different places. Clearly his comments about people adopting cars over horse drawn carriages only applied to the location the two comparison photos were taken, New York City. His charts from the same presentation show that US adoption of the automobile went from about 10% in 1916 to 58% 13 years later in 1929, fell to 47% in 1942 and didn't pass 80% adoption rate in the US until 1968! The charts he developed and presented show that it took 52 years to go from 10% automobile adoption to 80% auto adoption.
Clearly the transition happened much more quickly in Manhattan. This should be obvious and yet you try to portray it as if Mr. Seba was purposefully trying to mislead. Why would he do that? He makes his living by being one of the worlds foremost experts in the timing of the adoption of new technologies and always includes his historical adoption rate charts that clearly show America took 52 years to go from a 10% adoption rate to an 80% adoption.
I wouldn't call him optimistic, I would say he's been dead accurate overall, at least as accurate as someone predicting the future can be. Many of his predictions under-estimate the rate of change by a similar small amount. And, again, he recognizes that all his projections will happen at different times in different areas. I think when he said by 2021 we will have 200+ mile EV's that will cost $25K he was speaking globally, not specific to any one market. If you go to China I think you will find he was spot on. And the US is probably only a year or two away.
This is not the first time I've seen you (and others) try to discredit Mr. Seba based on faulty information. And it's not the first time you have been corrected. And yet you continue to use the same disproven reasons why he is not grounded in reality. He's the best we've got and he has been incredibly and uncannily accurate at a time when traditional auto and energy analysts and government projections have been laughably pessimistic. Night and day difference. And yet you pick on the one guy who called it more accurately than all the rest.
This is the graph Mr. Seba developed years ago (the adoption of the ICE automobile is the line third from the left):
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, it's not.
here's the video.
At 35 seconds he shows the 1900 NYC parade picture and points out it contains one car, and lots of horses.
Then he shows the 1913 NYC parade picture at 51 seconds in. Pointing out it contains one horse, and lots of cars.
He then concludes NYC went from all horse to all car in 13 years.
Which, of course, it did not.
Not remotely.
Can you cite where in the video he does this? Because far as I can see right after the NYC parade pics he moves on to cell phones and never comes back to the horse->car change rate for the rest of the hour as you claim.
He does get back to his assumptions about cars generally- but around the future not the past... which include that 200+ mile range EVs without subsidy will be $25,000 in 2021... and $20,000 in 2022.
He also assumed Tesla will have L5 autonomy offered to consumers in 2021 but notes it might be as early as 2019.
Amusingly right after this he points out how quickly LIDAR costs are dropping as being a key to cheap self driving cars.... guess he didn't ask Elon on that one
Right after that he tells us how George Hotz built a "self driving car" which of course isn't what he actually did....and adds that since it was opensourced "anyone" can now just download software to do self driving cars...going on to say 'then a few hundred for the GPU, a few hundred for the LIDAR, and you're in business!" and "A $2000 investment could make your car autonomous"
Man! Tesla is wasting a TON on R&D when it's already done and only $2000 huh?
Even if that were true (and again the video does not appear to contain any such disclaimers)-- he's still wrong
Adoption wasn't nearly that fast even in NYC.
it's just an interesting difference in what was in a specific parade--- not general use.
Again can you cite the time in the video he shows these? I don't see them.
Maybe you saw a different presentation than the one I'm referencing where he recycled the NYC bit in the video I linked to, but then realized it was misleading and decided to add some better info... that'd be great news.
Really?
So in 2017 I could spend $2000 on LIDAR and a GPU and free George Hotz software and have an autonomous car?
In 2021 I can buy a 200+ mile range EV for $25,000 and in 2022 I can buy one for $20,000? Both unsubsidized and in the US? Which ones?
Given the ICE pricing on the same chart for comparison was listed as explicitly pricing in the US your conclusions again appear to be false.
I mean, I'm directly quoting Mr. Seba....so if the information is faulty that's on him.
It's not the first time I've seen you try and discredit myself (and others) by claiming what they said was false despite it being entirely accurate.
Since you fail to accurately correct me each time- since what I said was actually true, I agree this is NOT the first time.
It's the 0th time. Just like previous failed attempts on your part.
Can you cite where in the video this graph is shown and explained as you claim regarding vehicle adoption rates?
Or did you maybe in your rush to inaccurately call someone wrong misunderstand what video was being discussed?
Bonus points for this graph appearing to START in about 1913 on autos BTW- since in the video I link he suggests NYC had already almost ENTIRELY moved from horses to cars by...1913.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Sigh...look at the 9 minute mark, you can't miss it. The chart is about 10 x 20 feet! Are you not even familiar with the video YOU posted? Did you even watch it?
You seem to want to nitpick everything Seba when no one has been more accurate. His accuracy overall is uncanny when you compare his projections for solar adoption and EV's to official government estimates and brokerage analysts. There is no comparison! I'm not claiming he has had 100% accuracy over his career, I'm claiming no one has called it more accurately. In many cases he is right down to the exact year or two while other analysts haven't a clue and off by decades!
Nothing is more important to our investment in TSLA than adoption rates. TSLA has increased my retirement account by a lot of dollars and I attribute about 33% of my conviction directly to the excellent presentations by Tony Seba so I take it pretty seriously when someone tries to distort what he has said on an investment forum.
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My iPhone hasn’t changed, is the update automatic or do you have to delete and reinstall? Is there a way to bump the update?
Don't delete. Go into app store, and if it isn't on the update list already, search for it... it will then have an update button.
I had to go to the App store a couple of times before the UPDATE button showed. You don't have to reinstall.
If you have an iPhone you can search ”Tesla” on the App Store and find the 4.0 code release. They don’t seem to be pushing it out yet.
Helpful group as always…
If you don't see it on the list of apps to update just pull to refresh
IIRC, the Apple App Store may roll out updates from third party developers in batches when there are largish numbers of users, so not everyone will get the update at exactly the same time.
There is no way for the user or third party developers to bump or control the update process, except that the user can delete and reinstall the app as was mentioned.
Reinstall isn't necessary. I had to open and close the App Store App a couple of times before "open" changed to "update".
Same here. But seeing that post I went into the App Store, searched on Tesla, clicked on the Tesla app and there was an update button.
Something I've wondered, since the US began to pull out of Afghanistan, is why? What's the point of creating another black swan event in a world that the US Government knows requires of a lot of worldwide crisis response support between climate change disasters (including COVID)?
Then, something dawned on me from watching the news - it's been 24/7 coverage of the financial markets and what Donald Trump says for 4 years. We're all primed, worldwide, based on what one idiot says for almost half a decade in the most powerful position on the planet...because there's little actual set of actions going on from the US Government (the most powerful and well equipped one in the world). There's no telling what shenanigans occurred to disrupt the United States the past 4 years while we were all distracted amongst ourselves. Heck, Haiti lost a President, due to assassination, only a few weeks before a massive earthquake AND hurricane hit the island subsequently. There goes that country's next few generations (as an example)...
The same thing goes with Musk and the Tesla team (not SpaceX because they're super self-enclosed) with the Tesla Bot. I wonder if we need a reiteration that the US Government actually does things that are impactful on the planet other than rhetoric in order to right the worldwide ship we call society. Create a spearhead and rather than a blunted instrument that we call progress which we've all been used to for decades. Just one poster's thoughts...
Then, something dawned on me from watching the news - it's been 24/7 coverage of the financial markets and what Donald Trump says for 4 years. We're all primed, worldwide, based on what one idiot says for almost half a decade in the most powerful position on the planet...because there's little actual set of actions going on from the US Government (the most powerful and well equipped one in the world). There's no telling what shenanigans occurred to disrupt the United States the past 4 years while we were all distracted amongst ourselves. Heck, Haiti lost a President, due to assassination, only a few weeks before a massive earthquake AND hurricane hit the island subsequently. There goes that country's next few generations (as an example)...
The same thing goes with Musk and the Tesla team (not SpaceX because they're super self-enclosed) with the Tesla Bot. I wonder if we need a reiteration that the US Government actually does things that are impactful on the planet other than rhetoric in order to right the worldwide ship we call society. Create a spearhead and rather than a blunted instrument that we call progress which we've all been used to for decades. Just one poster's thoughts...
Speaking of Starlink, I have to wonder if it, along with internet accessibility, will be the moat for Teslabot?Yes, and what's more I think that Elon has now set the conditions for a staged roll-out of the beta "button": (San Francisco bay area first to get it)
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@WholeMarsBlog @kimpaquette In general, we overfit to SF Bay Area" / Twitter
New users for the beta program will likely be exposed to the least risk in the region with the best data. Unfortunately, that means Boston will likely have to wait.
Long term solution is Dojo, and lots of 'em, in regional data centers. Lots and lots of training clusters. Then why not even put a few onSky NetStarlink?
Tesla will definately be buying a chip FAB...
Cheers!
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Thanks! Read this, then looked in my email and had a notification there as well.
Finally, got one!
For some reason iPhone requires a bump. Go to the App Store and then click on your icon in the top right corner… This brings up all the available updates. Scroll down to Tesla app and update it only takes a few minutes but it’s a large download 265 MB I believe.
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