DanCar
Active Member
Some know how to interpret what he says. In my mind he is a shill. Makes "no disengagement" videos about v11 but after he gets v12, starts talking about the bad stuff of v11.
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Poll: When will FSD V12 be in wide release?
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
On the actual topic of release. Not withstanding typical release profile. I think the current position is very odd. The existing versions are limping on TeslaFi usually indicating a new FW release is imminent and it’s obvious Tesla isn’t pushing subscribers to latest because of V12 staging. It’s very obvious they’ve been pushing hard to get it out but seemingly keep running into stuff. Feeling confident that V12 is exhibiting instability in edge cases and they have to go back and figure out what in the training set is causing it or weeding through models to find one that isn’t exhibiting the unwanted behaviors. You KNOW someone is going to video V12 doing something ball grabbing and it’ll cause publicity because they’ll have another “recall” once some Cheetos covered NHTSA person rocks back in his chair.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Old news. Elon said the goal of V12 is unsupervised operation.
Of course the goal of every version of FSD has been unsupervised operation so I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Over time, unsupervised operation will occur. I worry about painting into a corner with the version number though. Dot versions could get old. People like new numbers. Makes it seem like it is new.
Not so sure it's old news. Situations change and this could be an example of that especially if Tesla wants to license FSD to other car companies. That would mean billions in new revenues.
How would that work? "License FSD" sounds great and all, but OEMs would have to make it work. All the training data is based on HW3 camera locations on Tesla vehicles. Would OEMs start creating cars with matching cameras at those locations, or are there techniques to morph the camera data on OEM cars into something that FSD could act on? For that matter, how does Tesla address HW4 differences? I can't believe that they're collecting all new footage, curating it, and training a new system. That would produce different behaviors between HW3 and HW4 cars. In fact, every unique set of hardware would seem to require going through the data collection, curation, and training process separately.
This is why I've always assumed that control would be based not directly on photons but on some normalized set of data akin to what we see in the visualization. That would allow any vehicle that can generate that normalized data to be driven by FSD's control network. But that may be unnecessarily tossing out a lot of important cues that the overall system could be using.
I'm interested in the thoughts of anyone in the ML world.
It was presented as another possible TSLA revenue source when Dojo, Tesla's AI chip development, and their vertical integration were looking promising. But now Tesla needs to buy very capable but expensive NVDA GPUs and that probably doesn't scale well with other OEMs and their oodles of vehicle models.
AI training has quickly turned into a monster. At some point it might even catch the wrath of the green movement.
Wonder if we need an all new poll now?
Looks like Tesla may have decided to revive the Early Access program and only send V12 to first. Evidence is keeping us on last year's software and not offering any 24.x updates (boy we know about being behind and it does suck).
So if this is the case it is likely that V12 won't go out to everyone for a few more months after release to Early Access to test. If this happens any guesses on how long Early Access would have before going out to everyone.
Here is my "todays" out of my a$$ timeframe.
Looks like Tesla may have decided to revive the Early Access program and only send V12 to first. Evidence is keeping us on last year's software and not offering any 24.x updates (boy we know about being behind and it does suck).
So if this is the case it is likely that V12 won't go out to everyone for a few more months after release to Early Access to test. If this happens any guesses on how long Early Access would have before going out to everyone.
Here is my "todays" out of my a$$ timeframe.
- 12.3.1 about the first of March and goes out to influencers (seems 12.2 has problems)
- 12.3.3 about mid/late March and starts rolling to Early Access
- 12.5.x about early July and starts rolling out to everyone
Last edited:
KArnold
Active Member
Version 11.3.1 first came out March 7, 2023 to early testers. As a peon, I didn't get 11.3.6 until April 8 2023 or 32 days after public announcement.
Verson 11.4.1 first came out May 11, 2023 to early testers. I got 11.4.2 on June 21, 2023 - 41 days.
Personally I don't recall announcements on "employee testing" historically (may have missed it) but my 11.3/11.4 experiences were when influencers started getting it. Now it looks like employee release of v12 with .1 around November 24, 2023 plus or minus. I'm with you on your guesstimate, perhaps a little sooner on #3 (assuming #1 and #2 are correct). I dare say the "public" version might be more like 12.3.5 though. Would love to be a fly on the wall foe that rollout discussion.
Bottom line - I doubt I'll see v12 of anything until 4 to 6 weeks after public influencers get their hands on it.
A small group of Employees and Elon had it in February of 2022. That's the reference I made to V11 was being tested for almost a year before regular testers received it.
Elon had an update in May that would be ready by end of Summer.
November we first started seeing other Employees (wider group) receive it via tracking sites (Teslafi/TeslaScope)
March 7 starts your timeline.
That sounds reasonable. It appears to be taking about three weeks for Tesla to cycle a new 12.x revision right now. So, if it takes a couple revisions after it goes to the initial public testers, six weeks seems about right.
The real question is whether 12.2 will go out. If there's a problem with it, we may be looking at three more weeks, or longer.
gottagofast
2022 Model 3 Performance
gottagofast
2022 Model 3 Performance
If version 12 ends up being a big hit among people I’m guessing this could increase the value of used cars that have FSD
gottagofast
2022 Model 3 Performance
All the cars don’t get the updates at the same time? I think I’ve had that software awhile now
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