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Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?

Do you think that you will get the full U.S. tax credit on your Model 3?

  • For sure

    Votes: 55 20.3%
  • Probably

    Votes: 94 34.7%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 58 21.4%
  • Not likely

    Votes: 38 14.0%
  • Nope

    Votes: 14 5.2%
  • I'm not in the U.S.

    Votes: 12 4.4%

  • Total voters
    271
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Anyone voting "for sure" or "probably" hasn't been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums. And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.

what "facts" are you referring to? anyone who lives on the west coast and reserved probably within the first 48 hours if not the entire first weekend will likely get the full credit, unless they have major issues with ramping production IMO.
 
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Voted probable. I was #20 in line at the store on 3/31. CA resident. Budget $50k before rebates. Non-owner (that’s why voted probable). No rebates or long delays, and I might look at an ICE. There are lots of good cars out there in $40-$50k range.
 
Agree.

The most recent IRS tax tables show that a $7,500 tax obligation comes from taxable earnings of ~$47K for singles and ~$56K for joint filers.
also to emphasize it is on taxable income (look at line 43 on your 1040) - not your gross wages. Taxable earnings is after the standard exemptions and any itemized deductions one may have. You could could be single with gross wages at $75,000+, and because of deductions you could still owe less than $7,500 (line 44 on 1040).
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Lunarx
No rebates or long delays, and I might look at an ICE. There are lots of good cars out there in $40-$50k range.

We'll there's the difference between you and most tesla enthusiasts...most are trying to end their ice ownership. It's not about other cars out there that may be good in the 40k to 50k range. It's about moving away from it completely.
 
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We'll there's the difference between you and most tesla enthusiasts...most are trying to end their ice ownership. It's not about other cars out there that may be good in the 40k to 50k range. It's about moving away from it completely.

I think there are two types of Tesla fans. Those who are fully into the EV mission and are wanting to reduce their ICE usage. And then there are the "status symbol" fans. Those folks just want a cool, fast car with a luxury nameplate and could care less that it happens to be an EV.

The 2nd group is going to be the one Tesla will be most in danger of losing if delays get long and credits go away. I had some friends who were considering a Model S a few years ago because it was "the" car to have here in Southern California as a status symbol. Once they looked into it and figured out how long they were going to have to wait to obtain that Model S, they decided against it and bought a similarly priced ICE instead.
 
I think there are two types of Tesla fans. Those who are fully into the EV mission and are wanting to reduce their ICE usage. And then there are the "status symbol" fans. Those folks just want a cool, fast car with a luxury nameplate and could care less that it happens to be an EV.

I'm in a third group: Seeking a vehicle that is effortlessly super fast, smooth, quiet, well handling, comfortable, not ugly...and affordable.

The P90D Model S meets all of my criteria, but is a little short on the latter. And it's larger than I'd like. Hopefully, the Model 3 will have it all!
 
I think there are two types of Tesla fans. Those who are fully into the EV mission and are wanting to reduce their ICE usage. And then there are the "status symbol" fans. Those folks just want a cool, fast car with a luxury nameplate and could care less that it happens to be an EV.

The 2nd group is going to be the one Tesla will be most in danger of losing if delays get long and credits go away. I had some friends who were considering a Model S a few years ago because it was "the" car to have here in Southern California as a status symbol. Once they looked into it and figured out how long they were going to have to wait to obtain that Model S, they decided against it and bought a similarly priced ICE instead.

I can't imagine anyone spending $100k on a car unless they have some interest in "status".

I think that the m3 is attracting individuals on a budget. The math matters. Car payments, insurance payments, money saved on gas, tax credits...it all matters. I am sure everyone wants to reduce their carbon footprint and buy a product built 100% in the US, such as I do, but the math has to make sense.
 
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i checked "for sure" even though all of us here are "not sure." who knows what will happen in the next two years. im with Haxster. i'm in the third group. currently a MS owner and would love to get a sweet looking car.

for those non-tesla owners, who hasn't experienced driving/charging/owning a tesla, would you still buy the model 3 even if there is no tax credit?

I'm in a third group: Seeking a vehicle that is effortlessly super fast, smooth, quiet, well handling, comfortable, not ugly...and affordable.

The P90D Model S meets all of my criteria, but is a little short on the latter. And it's larger than I'd like. Hopefully, the Model 3 will have it all!
 
I can't imagine anyone spending $100k on a car unless they have some interest in "status".

I think that the m3 is attracting individuals on a budget. The math matters. Car payments, insurance payments, money saved on gas, tax credits...it all matters. I am sure everyone wants to reduce their carbon footprint and buy a product built 100% in the US, such as I do, but the math has to make sense.

Indeed math does matter. I have no interest in buying a luxury car, and don't see the Model 3 as such. If Model 3 didn't exist, I'd probably be buying an Accord or Optima. But I love the Tesla mission and am willing to pay a little more than planned to help further it.
 
No rebates or long delays, and I might look at an ICE. There are lots of good cars out there in $40-$50k range.

We'll there's the difference between you and most tesla enthusiasts...most are trying to end their ice ownership. It's not about other cars out there that may be good in the 40k to 50k range. It's about moving away from it completely.

There is also a build quality issue here. A $50k Mercedes/Audi/Lexus/Volvo/Acura might be a better quality car than a Tesla. I am an EV enthusiast (a former Aptera reservation holder :() and a current Leaf Owner for 5+ years(2011 and 2013). M3 definitely has my attention but it still needs to convince me why I need to purchase this car vs so many other cars in its price range.

As of today M3 is on top of my list, but Tesla needs to know there are many reservation holders (although a small minority on this forum) that are ready to walk away at any signs of trouble from the company. 2018-2019 will bring lots of high-tech cars to the market, and I am excited to see whats coming down the pipe.
 
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Reactions: Haxster
I think there are two types of Tesla fans. Those who are fully into the EV mission and are wanting to reduce their ICE usage. And then there are the "status symbol" fans. Those folks just want a cool, fast car with a luxury nameplate and could care less that it happens to be an EV.

The 2nd group is going to be the one Tesla will be most in danger of losing if delays get long and credits go away. I had some friends who were considering a Model S a few years ago because it was "the" car to have here in Southern California as a status symbol. Once they looked into it and figured out how long they were going to have to wait to obtain that Model S, they decided against it and bought a similarly priced ICE instead.

Maybe it hasn't occurred to you but a lot of the people who choose highly fuel efficient vehicles are not into status OR into saving the earth. I know a huge pile of older people who drive Toyota Prius's for no other reason than that financially if you keep one for 10 years they are very affordable. This was even more true when gas was flirting with $4 a gallon. These people don't care if the electricity that charges a car's battery comes out of a huge coal burning smoke-stack somewhere.

For me, it's not about "status", it's about getting a higher performance car that will be fun to drive and more economical to own for more than a few years. I lease BMWs because they get quite expensive to own long term as the maintenance headaches start to pile up. The thought of an electric high performance car that almost never needs to go to the shop for anything is very appealing to me. "Tesla" being on the badge as a status symbol, not so much. Saving the earth? I would argue that Tesla isn't even amounting to a drop in the bucket on that front but anything that reduces our dependence on foreign oil is a win in my book.
 
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I reserved on 4/1, about #200,000. I got the $7500 tax credit on my Leaf in 2011 so if I get it again, great, if I get 1/2 or 1/4 that's okay too. If I don't get anything, I'm still buying a M3 with multiple options selected because range limitations in my Leaf are getting old and Tesla is a superior brand in every way over my Leaf.
 
On an encouraging note:

As time passes, it's a lot more likely that reservations ahead of you will drop off than that new ones will cut in front of you.

A lot can happen between now and the end of next year to move you up in line: production delays, adverse news from Tesla, national/world economic/political trauma, attractive competitive vehicles, loss of interest & buzz, super cheap gas, expiring tax credits, etc.
 
I received my reservation confirmation at 3:50 PM on 4/1/16. Apparently, I reserved around 297,000. Tracker says my car will probably be delivered February 2020. So I changed my vote from probably to 'Nope'. A lot of things can happen in four years. Sigh.........