Porsche Mission E

[AustinPowers]

Porsche is still shooting late on a moving target. By late '19 the Y will be announced & preorders rolling in.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens from 2019/2020 onwards, when legacy automakers start bringing out BEVs in full force.
It is never a good idea to underestimate VW for example. They often came (very) late in the game, and then took the lead in various segments quite quickly. They seem to prefer to wait and see what the market wants, and then follow suit and offer their own models to fit those wants and needs. Happened many times before, I'm sure it will happen again. In the meantime they can internally work on perfecting the tech and production aspects, before going live full scale.
As long as the actual market for BEVs is as tiny as it is, that tactic might pay off in the end.

 

[FutureShock]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens from 2019/2020 onwards, when legacy automakers start bringing out BEVs in full force.
It is never a good idea to underestimate VW for example. They often came (very) late in the game, and then took the lead in various segments quite quickly. They seem to prefer to wait and see what the market wants, and then follow suit and offer their own models to fit those wants and needs. Happened many times before, I'm sure it will happen again. In the meantime they can internally work on perfecting the tech and production aspects, before going live full scale.
As long as the actual market for BEVs is as tiny as it is, that tactic might pay off in the end.

VW (and its assorted brands) certainly has the resources to be a major 'fast follower' in EVs, sure.

But a significant problem for them is that, at least at this stage of the game, many (though sure, not all) of the ppl buying EVs tend to be pretty 'green'/environmentally-conscious.

And VW has pretty much destroyed their own reputation among such folks courtesy of DieselGate.

Now, I'm sure that eventually the EV-buying public will move past that. But that could take several years, putting VW well behind in the 'battle for hearts and minds, going forward.

Not to mention their major challenges in general in the US market. VW was at like 2 or 3 percent market share here even before DieselGate.
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[sdorn]

VW (and its assorted brands) certainly has the resources to be a major 'fast follower' in EVs, sure.

But a significant problem for them is that, at least at this stage of the game, many (though sure, not all) of the ppl buying EVs tend to be pretty 'green'/environmentally-conscious.

And VW has pretty much destroyed their own reputation among such folks courtesy of DieselGate.

Now, I'm sure that eventually the EV-buying public will move past that. But that could take several years, putting VW well behind in the 'battle for hearts and minds, going forward.

Not to mention their major challenges in general in the US market. VW was at like 2 or 3 percent market share here even before DieselGate.
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I think you have two assumptions there that might not hold up.

1. The majority of EV buyers are motivated mainly by helping the environment. I don't think this is true for many Tesla and Nissan Leaf owners currently, and as EVs become more main stream it will be less and less true as time goes on. I bought my first Leaf because the tax incentives made it such that the car was basically free. I bought my Tesla because it is awesome and I liked driving an electric car. The environmental impact had almost no meaning to me at all.

2. The majority of the car buying public remember / care / know about diesel-gate. Most of the population is pretty oblivious to the world around them. If VW starts making attractive, reliable, fun EVs people are going to buy them regardless of diesel-gate. Also, it is starting to look like other car manufacturers were doing similar things and it just hasn't been fully brought to light yet. (It’s not just Volkswagen. Every diesel car company is emitting more pollution than tests show.)

 

[WarpedOne]

It is not about engineering at all. From this POV VW is capable of everything physically possible.
And yet all VW was actually capable of doing was electrifying their cheapest car platform (eUP) and later a DIY level conversion of Golf. And showing lots of pictures and words.

It is about business case and next Q and FY profits. They are victims of their ICE success and profits. Watch which CEO will be the first accused of damaging shareholders because his EV moves caused profits to plunge.

It is coming and they new it.

 

[AustinPowers]

VW (and its assorted brands) certainly has the resources to be a major 'fast follower' in EVs, sure.

But a significant problem for them is that, at least at this stage of the game, many (though sure, not all) of the ppl buying EVs tend to be pretty 'green'/environmentally-conscious.

And VW has pretty much destroyed their own reputation among such folks courtesy of DieselGate.

Now, I'm sure that eventually the EV-buying public will move past that. But that could take several years, putting VW well behind in the 'battle for hearts and minds, going forward.

Not to mention their major challenges in general in the US market. VW was at like 2 or 3 percent market share here even before DieselGate.
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I agree with sdorn on this.

The vast majority of the car buying public doesn't give a sh** about the environment.
They want a reliable, comfortable, safe and affordable means of personal transportation. If a BEV fulfils these criteria, and is cheaper than a comparable ICE, then people will switch to BEVs naturally (apart from some eternal petrolheads maybe, who feel they need the noise, vibrations, etc.), environment or not.

Plus, the majority of people seem to suffer from an incredibly short attention span/memory. Stuff like Dieselgate are quickly forgotten, especially if you are not directly affected anyway. VW is still posting record sales in many markets, and even though sales of Diesels have taken kind of a plunge recently, they still account for a large chunk of new car sales. BEVs in comparison still account for only a miniscule part of car sales worldwide.

And as for VW and the US market: like you said, they never had an important market share there in the first place. Even though it is an important market, other countries are equally or more important. Like especially China, plus Asia on the whole. Germany, the UK, the rest of Europe, South America...

 

[FutureShock]

The vast majority of the car buying public doesn't give a sh** about the environment.

Possibly the 'vast majority of the car buying public' overall... though even that's starting to change.
But, the segment of the car buying public that purchases EVs? That seems to be a different kettle of fish, Herr Powers.

Take for instance the following survey... 38% percent of EV and hybrid buyers cited 'saving the environment' as the reason why they bought their car:

https://www.carmax.com/articles/hybrid-electric-2017-survey-results

Plus, the majority of people seem to suffer from an incredibly short attention span/memory. Stuff like Dieselgate are quickly forgotten, especially if you are not directly affected anyway. VW is still posting record sales in many markets, and even though sales of Diesels have taken kind of a plunge recently, they still account for a large chunk of new car sales. BEVs in comparison still account for only a miniscule part of car sales worldwide.

That sounds a bit like whistling past the graveyard/hopeful thinking. For instance, people remembered the Exxon Valdez incident for many years after it happened (heck, the Exxon Valdez was even the centerpiece of a Kevin Costner film). VW still has a great deal of image rehabilitation to do, I'm afraid.

Part of what's not letting DieselGate fade is not just its infamy but also the continued legal wrangling... the lawsuits and fines keep on coming, and help keep the story in the news (and likely will for years to come). This, for example, was from late July:

Volkswagen faces new California fine over 'Dieselgate' | News | DW | 20.07.2017

And as for VW and the US market: like you said, they never had an important market share there in the first place. Even though it is an important market, other countries are equally or more important. Like especially China, plus Asia on the whole. Germany, the UK, the rest of Europe, South America...

VW's never been a major force in the US market, but they used to be quite a lot bigger here than they are now. Back in the '70s, they managed to reach 5.6% share. Now, they're around one-third of that.

And, as the second-biggest auto market in the world, the US is a tough market for them to ignore or just write-off. So they keep trying to succeed here (the below article is from August)... and if past history is any judge, they'll probably keep failing.

Volkswagen Aims to More Than Double U.S. Market Share With Push Into SUVs

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[AustinPowers]

But, the segment of the car buying public that purchases EVs? That seems to be a different kettle of fish, Herr Powers.

Take for instance the following survey... 38% percent of EV and hybrid buyers cited 'saving the environment' as the reason why they bought their car

I can only speak for the BEV owners I know. None of them bought their car for environmental reasons. Neither do I. At least not as the main reason. But I admit it's a side affect I am quite happy with.

That sounds a bit like whistling past the graveyard/hopeful thinking. For instance, people remembered the Exxon Valdez incident for many years after it happened (heck, the Exxon Valdez was even the centerpiece of a Kevin Costner film). VW still has a great deal of image rehabilitation to do, I'm afraid.

Part of what's not letting DieselGate fade is not just its infamy but also the continued legal wrangling... the lawsuits and fines keep on coming, and help keep the story in the news (and likely will for years to come).

That Kevin Costner film about that tanker, I remember it well. Waterworld it was called

Over here, Dieselgate is already fading from the memory of many people, judging by VW sales figures.
Plus, as it turns out, every major manufacturer did the same thing, some just more effectively than VW. For them it's convenient that VW is made out as the scapegoat for all the others.

Anyway, as far as the US is concerned, I don't see what more image rehab is necessary for VW. On the contrary, the way US customers were rewarded is beyond belief, at least that's how Europeans see it. Because we didn't get any of the niceties and offers you got. That is the real scandal, that we over here have such a crappy judicial system that protects the companies instead of the customers!

 

[FutureShock]

I can only speak for the BEV owners I know. None of them bought their car for environmental reasons. Neither do I. At least not as the main reason. But I admit it's a side affect I am quite happy with.

Anecdotes are not data. I gave you data. And 38% is a pretty significant chunk of EV-buyers, i.e. those who bought their EVs or hybrids for environmental reasons.

That Kevin Costner film about that tanker, I remember it well. Waterworld it was called

Over here, Dieselgate is already fading from the memory of many people, judging by VW sales figures.
Plus, as it turns out, every major manufacturer did the same thing, some just more effectively than VW. For them it's convenient that VW is made out as the scapegoat for all the others.

Perhaps DieselGate is fading over there in Germany. Of course, over there, there is a 'halo' effect for VW, since they're the home-town team, and are so important to the national economy. It's hard to stay angry at the hand that feeds you.

But, over here in America, the continued legal-wrangling, as mentioned, helps keep DieselGate in the news. And, at least among the environmentally-conscious, i.e. a big chunk of EV-buyers, they are decidedly not happy with VW's actions.

Anyway, as far as the US is concerned, I don't see what more image rehab is necessary for VW. On the contrary, the way US customers were rewarded is beyond belief, at least that's how Europeans see it. Because we didn't get any of the niceties and offers you got. That is the real scandal, that we over here have such a crappy judicial system that protects the companies instead of the customers!

In the US, I think it's not so much a case of 'what more image rehab is necessary' as 'what image rehab could VW possibly do that would be effective'. The average US consumer had written VW off even before DieselGate, due to things such as poor reliability. VW's US marketshare was tanking even prior to DG.

So, add in DieselGate, and it's just another nail in the coffin. VW shouldn't be asking themselves what more is necessary, but, what can they possibly do to completely rehabilitate their battered reputation over here.

Just paying the financial penalties for getting caught isn't enough, that's simply what's expected of a company that does something criminal. Exxon's image wasn't repaired by their having to pay damages after the Valdez incident, for example.

It'll be an uphill climb for VW, that's for sure. Though, ironically, embracing EVs fully might be a big step along that road for them, image-rehabilitation-wise.

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[svp6]

Anecdotes are not data. I gave you data. And 38% is a pretty significant chunk of EV-buyers, i.e. those who bought their EVs or hybrids for environmental reasons.

That is not reliable data, just a survey, with all inherent limits - sadly we have the latest presidential elections speak loud and clear about validity of surveys. But even on the survey, the majority did not buy it for environmental merits (29% save money + 29% other reason = 58%). I second Austin Powers impression that none of the Tesla owners I personally know bought it primarily for the green credentials - and I concede already this is not a reflection of the entire population.

I agree that VW deception was criminal, yet they seem to climb that uphill just fine, with +5% year-over-year sales on the last report I could find.

Bottom line is we need more EV offers from as many manufacturers as possible. And I for sure will look at the Mission E when available.

 

[AustinPowers]

Anecdotes are not data. I gave you data.
[...]
The average US consumer had written VW off even before DieselGate, due to things such as poor reliability.

That has baffled me time and time again, why VW is seen as a manufacturer of cars with bad reliabilty. Over here it is just the opposite. VW cars are well known over here for their build quality and reliabilty. Perhaps the US gets second grade vehicles because everything has to be so dirt cheap when it comes to cars. Like that oil problem. When I was in the US, almost everywhere we went, parking spaces on car parks, es well as roads at traffic lights were full of dried oil patches. You never see anything like this over here. At the same time, forum users here often mention the frequent oil changes they have to do. Even though with modern cars you can you for tens of thousands of miles before needing an oil change. Amazing.

As for what is data and what isn't, that depends on the definition of data.
If I know 100 EV buyers for example, and they all tell me that they didn't buy their BEV for environmental reasons, then I would call that "data", even if I don't call my survey and official "survey".

<rant>And like svp6 said, in times of "the Donald", who trusts "official" surveys anymore, especially when they're US based? Right after Dieselgate, I would have agreed that VW's image is at rock bottom. Now I just have to read any newspaper, watch any newschannel (apart from FOX perhaps), and I can see that there's always a way to get a worse image. Your POTUS is really doing your country such a disservice by ruining any goodwill that other nations had towards the US. As long as he and that cracy little rocketman from across the Pacific don't get their act together and stop behaving like two school bullies or toddlers in a sandpit fighting over spade and bucket, we might not need to discuss the merits of one BEV manufacturer over the other much longer. Then it'll be back to the stone age for the world. Gruesome thought. I was so happy after our reunification when the Cold War was over. Everything seemed to point towards a bright and peaceful future. "Thanks" to the Big Orange One we are now back at a point we had all hoped we would never see or have to re-live again.</rant>

 

[Uncle Paul]

Not sure comparing Panamera to Model S is fair.

Believe that Porsche concept is a much smaller 2+2 instead of the Model S 5+2 configuration.

The interior space is between a Model S and a Model 3. So should be pricing.

While Porsche is an aspirational brand, with very high profit margins, at this time they have only a concept. No motor, no motor plant, no batteries, no auto pilot, no regenerative braking, no suspension, no factory, high union labor costs, etc.

They are under the gun to show the world that the EV revolution will not leave them behind, so this is what they have come up with.

This is mostly a press release with a mock up of a beautiful car.

WIll need to wait and see if they can actually bring something like this to the Marketplace.

By the time they bring this out, there will be much improved Model S and Model X, not to mention Tesla Trucks, small SUV, new roadster, pickup, convertibles, enhanced charging network, fully supported auto pilot, additional Gigafactories, and factory to customer pricing.

 

[svp6]

Not sure comparing Panamera to Model S is fair.
Believe that Porsche concept is a much smaller 2+2 instead of the Model S 5+2 configuration.
The interior space is between a Model S and a Model 3. So should be pricing.

Agree. I remember seeing somewhere that the Mission E will be on a platform smaller than the Panamera, hence probably somewhere closer to model 3 than model S. I really do not expect them to price it any lower than the model S - this is typical for Porsche (much higher price than other cars in the class). However, I would consider their offering if they retain the same excellent ride and build quality. Same as I would consider a Panamera over a Toyota Avalon.

After nearly 3 years on an electric car, there is really no going back to an ICE - and this has very little to do with the green credentials, but rather to the superiority of the electric drive platform. But I wish there were more choices, and that is why I support any new announcement and initiative in the field. I don't like having to buy a car just because it is the only game in town.

 

[FutureShock]

That is not reliable data, just a survey, with all inherent limits - sadly we have the latest presidential elections speak loud and clear about validity of surveys.

Survey or polls, if run well, actually are reliable (and we have statistical science to remind us so), they just have margins of error, that's all.
And the polling during the latest Presidential election was quite good, actually... average poll on the eve of the Election had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.2 points. Actual result: She won by 2.1 points... polls were off by barely a point, i.e. well within the margin of error:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

The real culprit as to why the expectations of a Clinton win didn't match reality was the Electoral College system, which allowed Trump to win despite receiving 3 million fewer votes than his opponent. Perhaps that system needs to be changed someday, but I digress.

But even on the survey, the majority did not buy it for environmental merits (29% save money + 29% other reason = 58%). I second Austin Powers impression that none of the Tesla owners I personally know bought it primarily for the green credentials - and I concede already this is not a reflection of the entire population.

The 38% who bought an EV for environmental reasons may not be a majority, but they are a pretty gosh-darned large minority.

Realistically, NO automaker would want to see 38% of their potential audience write them off as anti-environmental ogres. That would be a major image problem, no matter how one slices it.

I agree that VW deception was criminal, yet they seem to climb that uphill just fine, with +5% year-over-year sales on the last report I could find.

A 5% improvement over nearly nothing is still nearly nothing (i.e. 1.05x nearly nothing). VW's US market share remains abysmal. And what would their sales be like had they had no DieselGate albatross around their neck? Could they have improved far more?

VW does not want to maintain the status quo regarding their US sales, because their status quo is, frankly, awful. Instead, want to greatly improve their situation here... their latest goal is to more than double their US market share to 5%. But their image here, in terms of reliability, the environment, etc. is a big impediment to that. They would very much like to change that.

Bottom line is we need more EV offers from as many manufacturers as possible. And I for sure will look at the Mission E when available.

On that, at least, we agree. If VW can come out with some good EVs, that could not only help rehabilitate their poor image in the American market, but also improve sales in a significant way.

VW is one of the three largest automakers in the world, for them to be at their current 2% marketshare in the second-largest automobile market in the world is not really acceptable to them.

Cheers.
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[FutureShock]

That has baffled me time and time again, why VW is seen as a manufacturer of cars with bad reliability. Over here it is just the opposite.

In the US, at least, VW is seen as a manufacturer of cars with bad reliability because... they sold a great many cars with bad reliability. The yearly Consumer Reports surveys confirmed this time and again.

In recent years, VW's autos have allegedly improved to average in this regard. But, old reputations are hard to shake. It takes time, and consistency.

If I know 100 EV buyers for example, and they all tell me that they didn't buy their BEV for environmental reasons, then I would call that "data", even if I don't call my survey and official "survey".

100 EV buyers is a better sample size than a few, that's true, but still not as good as a real survey with a sample size in the hundreds or the thousands. Also, official surveys tend to conducted with professional rigor, i.e. the questions are asked in a non-biased or response-tilting way, and they generally try to ask a wide spectrum of different types of ppl, if possible.

Thus, surveys, if well-run, are data, while anecdotes, or even the plural of anecdotes, are not data. Otherwise, you wind up with conversations like, "EVERYONE I KNOW voted for Gary Johnson for President! Therefore, he won the election!! It's a cover-up, I tell ya!!".

And like svp6 said, in times of "the Donald", who trusts "official" surveys anymore, especially when they're US based?

See my response to svp in the post above. The US polls were actually quite accurate for the US Presidential election... it was the Electoral College that let us down.

Your POTUS is really doing your country such a disservice by ruining any goodwill that other nations had towards the US. As long as he and that crazy little rocketman from across the Pacific don't get their act together and stop behaving like two school bullies or toddlers in a sandpit fighting over spade and bucket, we might not need to discuss the merits of one BEV manufacturer over the other much longer. Then it'll be back to the stone age for the world. Gruesome thought. I was so happy after our reunification when the Cold War was over. Everything seemed to point towards a bright and peaceful future. "Thanks" to the Big Orange One we are now back at a point we had all hoped we would never see or have to re-live again.

You're not wrong. If it helps, 54 percent of US voters did not vote for the man. And, we will have a chance to rectify the situation come 2020.

Before you judge us too harshly, remember... the infamous political party that ran Germany in the '30s and early-mid '40s rose to power not just via its thuggish tactics but also because of its power at the ballot box. Any country can screw up majorly.

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[AustinPowers]

Amen on that. And going by the results of our national election yesterday, a not too small percentage of our population seems to be moving in a dangerous direction again too.

But back to the original topic, I think for the Mission E to actually start at $85k, Porsche will have to change quite a few things from what they had promised with the concept. That sounded like a much more expensive vehicle. If they really manage to offer that car at that money, they will have a certain winner with a lot of people. And as always when it comes to BEV offerings, my opinion is "the more the merrier". Competition and model range on the whole still leave a lot to be desired.

 

[SuisseDriver]

In the US, at least, VW is seen as a manufacturer of cars with bad reliability because... they sold a great many cars with bad reliability. The yearly Consumer Reports surveys confirmed this time and again.

In recent years, VW's autos have allegedly improved to average in this regard. But, old reputations are hard to shake. It takes time, and consistency.
.

I do not have the numbers so cannot comment on the veracity of those but must admit being super surprised.
Here in Europe, VW cars (the one from the group so Seat / Audi / VW / Skoda) are all among the most reliable.

And the general consensus is that US cars (GM, ford, Fiat-Chrysler) are cheap but crappy. People could buy US cars in Europe but people are not willing to deal with poor quality (and poor finition, we have to admit that) for the gain in purchasing price.

So it may well be that it has more to do with perception than reality but I have read many studies showing the poor reliability of US cars here in Europe...

 

[AustinPowers]

So it may well be that it has more to do with perception than reality but I have read many studies showing the poor reliability of US cars here in Europe...

I think there may be more credibility to this than some might want to admit. I mean, take the VW Passat for example. Over here, it is known as an extremely well built, reliable as well as fuel efficient vehicle. But, it is certainly not the cheapest around.
For the US market, VW designed a completely different Passat. It was/is larger, has more interior space, and is much cheaper than its European cousin. Plus it offers that strange mix of features that is or at least has been typical for US cars. Leather as standard, but also just Halogen lights, plus a bare minimum of all those driver assist and comfort features that are available in such abundance over here.

One gets the impression US vehicles have to have leather, be big, and above all, cheap.
So, small wonder that quality will suffer. Over here, cars are quite a bit more expensive, but the better quality seems to make up for it.
That's also a reason why the Model S initially fared quite badly in tests when it came to build quality and perceived level of comfort/luxury/usability/safety.

Will be interesting to see how the Model 3 will do over here. I am certainly very curious about how mine will stack up against the competition. Unfortunately I will have to wait for more than one year still, at the minimum. Wonder why I put down my reservation on day one, when buyers from the US who haven't even reserved yet will get their car before me. Way to go Tesla! (And that is coming from a TSLA stockholder by the way).

 

[zambono]

That will be $2,510 please.

View attachment 248492

I'll take it, and lets put the Sports Chrono on there too

 

[zambono]

I think the Mission e could be a quite relevant competitor to the top spec Model 3. By the end of next year, you can probably buy a long range dual motor performance Model 3 with air suspension and upgraded interior for something like 70k USD.

The Model 3 will likely be faster and have a longer range, while the Porsche will likely have a better interior and it might charge faster. The Model 3 looks like it will be able to seat one more person and it will likely be able to carry more luggage, so on the utility-side it should be better. The Porsche should handle better.

Overall I think they could be fairly comparable. The Porsche with more style and track-ability, and the Model 3 with more sensible utility and practicality. The ~15k USD premium should be acceptable for some, who want something less common than a Model 3, and the Porsche logo.

minus the lack of a hatch on the 3

 

[zambono]

I do not have the numbers so cannot comment on the veracity of those but must admit being super surprised.
Here in Europe, VW cars (the one from the group so Seat / Audi / VW / Skoda) are all among the most reliable.

And the general consensus is that US cars (GM, ford, Fiat-Chrysler) are cheap but crappy. People could buy US cars in Europe but people are not willing to deal with poor quality (and poor finition, we have to admit that) for the gain in purchasing price.

So it may well be that it has more to do with perception than reality but I have read many studies showing the poor reliability of US cars here in Europe...

They have had poor reliability here too, it seems this latest generation is better though. I wouldn't touch an american car from the 80's or 90's. There are barely any on the roads at least where I live.