I disagree. What should be defined as the first few years is relative to the market you are trying to take on. And the automotive market is not easy to take on, it requires time and money.
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Tedkidd
Member
My wag...
5,000 sight unseen reservations.
2,000 employee reservations.
20,000 first 48 hours
30,000 first week
100,000 December 2017
I have trouble envisioning there being more reservations than the first year's production.
5,000 sight unseen reservations.
2,000 employee reservations.
20,000 first 48 hours
30,000 first week
100,000 December 2017
I have trouble envisioning there being more reservations than the first year's production.
I think I would say:
20,000 sight unseen reservations (95 per store)
5,000 employee reservations (~33%)
80,000 first 48 hours
150,000 first week
300,000 December 2017
Tesla can't be compared to any other business. It's business was an uphill battle against big corporations, oil lobby, politicians, media etc. No other business had to face those odds. It had to create it's technology from ground up. No one did what they did before them. There wasn't anything to built upon. They only produced their 1st car in 2008 and that too on a different company platform. There is a reason there are no new start ups in car industry, and the reason is its extremely hard to survive here.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
As soon as Tesla decides to stop growing for awhile, we will very quickly start seeing profits for Tesla, and everyone will be confused. There will be investigations and congressional hearings to figure out how Tesla suddenly became profitable.
I would guess maybe 25,000 reservations in the first couple of days, but I would also guess Tesla won't disclose the numbers and we will never really know.
I would guess maybe 25,000 reservations in the first couple of days, but I would also guess Tesla won't disclose the numbers and we will never really know.
I really? I think you're in error and have done extensive calculations to prove it. Globally Tesla currently has something in the order of 4000 people who could process payments in stores, plus their website, which can handle only ~30000 transactions per minute. The 4000 people will work Tesla hours (i.e. 24 hours without any break or slowing of pace, because everyone in the queue at closing time will be served), and will each process one order per minute. So, the 24 hour capacity for order will be as follows:
4000x1440= 5,760,000 reservations in stores
30,000x1440= 43,200,000 online reservations
Total 48,960,000
Thus you have overestimated the actual expected reservations by 6,380,003,097. I think I have spotted your error, in that you have overstated the website capacity. Thus your number is probably accurate for the first months reservations rather than the first 24 hours.
As an aside there are roughly 1.5 billion motor vehicles operating in the world today. The model 3 alone is set to decimate the global market while ending out with about a 97% global market share once Tesla completes the takeover of all productive worldwide industrial capacity and releases the already perfected, but not disclosed, propulsion system that uses NO2, O3, and CO as the active sources of power, while emitting pure water as an output. Thus Tesla will purify the planet earth too.
All this is happening because Elon now realizes that colonizing Mars is not practical in the short term so revitalizing the planet Earth is simply easier to do in the ten year horizon he has set.
Had you not made this miscalculation I would not have revealed this plan. The broad outline may be revealed in the Model 3 reveal, but I doubt he'll tell the whole story there for fear of almost instantly causing the Tesla stock price to rapidly rise to cause tesla to exceed Apple's market capitalization within a single month.
Tesla would release favorable Model 3 reservation statistics if the statistics are better than Model S and/or Model X in comparable terms of timing. Receiving 100,000 reservations within 24 hours would be a great feat, but I express disagreement with the prediction. I would think 15,000-20,000 reservations within 24 hours is a realistic possibility for those who are willing to vote with money on a product that hasn't materialized yet. It'll take time for the news and information (the reveal on March 31st) of the Model 3 to be dispersed and let people make a financial decision. For an example, convincing a significant other doesn't always happen in 24 hours...
Doesn't every model S owner know 10-20 folks that drool over their car but can't afford it and are dying for one in their price range?
At least 5 in my drool circle are planning to reserve ASAP.
5x100k Model S...Once the press gets a hold and the specs are known that will grow. 1 million by first delivery date is quite possible.
100k in 24hours is not a stretch.
At least 5 in my drool circle are planning to reserve ASAP.
5x100k Model S...Once the press gets a hold and the specs are known that will grow. 1 million by first delivery date is quite possible.
100k in 24hours is not a stretch.
Big-T
Member
This is a VERY good point. No one I've talked to knew about the model 3 reservations before I told them - and they certainly didn't magically offer to pony up 1k deposit to come with me to the Tesla store on the 31st. At best I got a wary "oh, well that's interesting - not sure if I could give up a gas car"
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I'd say more realistically, give it a month.
And I hope Tesla has a ton of "educational" information to go onto the website.
For many people, the 6 O' Clock news on March 31st will be their first exposure to the "affordable Tesla", when the cameras are out talking to people waiting in line (those of us here on the forums).
It will pique curiosity
I actually think someone is going to hand Elon the global day 1 numbers, and if they're good, you'll hear them at the event on the evening of the 31st.
I mean, he's already going to have the world's attention, pretty sure he'd share good news if he had it.
And I hope Tesla has a ton of "educational" information to go onto the website.
For many people, the 6 O' Clock news on March 31st will be their first exposure to the "affordable Tesla", when the cameras are out talking to people waiting in line (those of us here on the forums).
It will pique curiosity
I actually think someone is going to hand Elon the global day 1 numbers, and if they're good, you'll hear them at the event on the evening of the 31st.
I mean, he's already going to have the world's attention, pretty sure he'd share good news if he had it.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
the good thing about the gap between debut and delivery is that it will give them a chance to scramble and start adding stalls to existing SC sites, as well as spinning up new ones, based on the amount of reservations they take in.
I like your predictions but i'll offer a few changes..
7,000 sight unseen reservations.
6,000 employee reservations.
17,000 first 48 hours
20,000 first week
70,000 December 2017
I think about half of the employees will reserve their car. One poster mentioned that he worked there and that everyone he knew was buying one so I think 50% is a good figure.
I'm a bit more conservative in my numbers.
Big-T
Member
I think if it's a large number Tesla certainly WILL disclose the numbers. The role of any CEO is to maximize shareholder value and a large amount of deposits for the model 3 will help achieve that, not only by helping the stock price directly but by helping pad their cash. If orders realy did hit 100,000 in 48 hours that would be $100 million in the bank for Tesla, nothing to sneeze at for 2 days of work. Of course if the reservations aren't great, they may not disclose the number and try to bury the info as much as possible.
Apple did the same thing by not disclosing the number of iWatches sold and just coming out iwth generic "we're thrilled at the demand" statements even though they had been disclosing/bragging about sales numbers of iPads and iPhones for years.
So yes, they'll yell it over the mountain tops if reservations are great, they won't if they're not.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Yep. If the next announcement coming from Musk is a price hike/refresh of the Model S, you'd have to think that many will be waiting for those details to emerge (P100D? AP 2.0? etc) before they decide which Tesla they want next.
Ultimately, the Model S refresh announcement could finally see some P85D/P90D with Autopilot start trickling in as CPOs.
I agree, and think that would actually be an undesireable scenario.
Some people buy the C-class because they don't want to flaunt their wealth. Not every wealthy person is an egomaniacal show-off (Warren Buffet comes to mind).
I think you're misunderstanding the culture and priorities Tesla is breeding in their customer base. I described this sentiment in another post somewhere. People who buy Teslas are more akin to iPhone maniacs than ICE-heads. Tesla has made their cars a hot commodity, not just a method of transportation. Many Tesla owners have already owned more than one Tesla. And to your point that they can afford it, if the Model 3 is revealed to have enticing features or a new suite of sensors or anything substantially different technologically, I think current Tesla owners (i.e. members of the FAN base) will strongly consider plunking down $1000 for the option to buy early later. After all, like you said, they can afford it.
Even if it doesn't end up being for them, they'll make the reservation and buy it for a spouse or family member. Or they'll cancel and get a new S/X. We don't have news of S/X upgrades yet. Rumors, sure, but next week, there will be a tangible method of reserving Tesla's "new best thing," - maybe not overall, as it's no P100D, but it will have improvements over the current S models, and at a more attractive price point - and if $1000 is all that separates current drinkers of the Tesla kool-aid from a chance at being an early adopter of that technology as well (not just a car, technology - the future), then I ask again - why not?
Mercedes, to use your example, doesn't have "fans". Mercedes is an established car brand that introduces marginally better products year-over-year in various sizes. Tesla is still in its infancy and has used S/X owners as proof of concept. Tech changes in their cars will likely continue to be drastic over the next several years, and considering their current customer base is made up of wealthier individuals who can afford to own more than one car in general, it's reasonable to expect, after receiving an email telling them all they'd get priority in reserving one, that they'd plunk down a relatively small $1000 to defer that decision to 18+ months from now when the cash (which they likely already have) is due. Why not?
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