Should you wait for 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range with 4680 Battery or by Tesla now? [Jan 2023]

[woolymammoth17]

No. Elon has said before about Lucid’s headlining range figures that it doesn’t make sense to chase 500+ miles range and it’s a waste of battery. Humans will need bio/rest breaks long before hitting 500 miles. There is no need for such range with improving charging infrastructure. As it stands, current battery capacity and Tesla Supercharger network is not that far off from parity with ICE road trip times.

But also there are no rumored or reported plans for a structural pack chassis for any other Tesla model any time soon. The current battery packs are basically full of cells and the only way to increase capacity is to increase energy density of each cell through improved chemistry. Or further improve efficiency through the motors and aero to go further with the same amount of battery.

Structural pack doesn’t necessarily mean better capacity either. It just simplifies overall manufacturing of the vehicle due to the gigacastings. Currently the structural pack of the 4680 Y AWD has less battery capacity than the non-structural 2170 Y LR because the 2170 cells have higher energy density than 4680.

Yeah Elon is completely wrong here.

500+ miles EPA "rated" means 300+ miles real range, which is what will be needed for mass adoption.

Many of my friends who are now moving to EV are super disappointed in their range (from all brands) and have to keep a gas car for any trips.

 

[woolymammoth17]

Remember: 80%-90% of the population will not accept the excuses all of the fanbois will e.g.:
"You have to go 60 even if speed limit is 80 or 85!"
"Why in the world are you living somewhere it gets cold stupid!? Move to San Diego like me!"
"Don't turn the A/C below 75 in the summer or above 65 in the Winter"
"Do NOT ever tow a boat or trailer, what do you need to do that for dummy!?"
"You're holding it wrong" - Steve Jobs

 

[woolymammoth17]

"As it stands, current battery capacity and Tesla Supercharger network is not that far off from parity with ICE road trip times."

This is literally a complete lie. LOL

 

[zoomer0056]

is a push to start button on the Mach E

Really, I did not know that. Maybe they did that instead of brake to start because it makes people more comfortable.

 

[exxxviii]

500+ miles EPA "rated" means 300+ miles real range, which is what will be needed for mass adoption.

Minor tweak... The Model Y at 70 MPH will get about 85% of its EPA range and 70% of EPA range at 75 MPH.

So, a 500 mile EPA car would get 350 miles at 75 MPH and 425 miles at 70 MPH.

 

[woolymammoth17]

Minor tweak... The Model Y at 70 MPH will get about 85% of its EPA range and 70% of EPA range at 75 MPH.

So, a 500 mile EPA car would get 350 miles at 75 MPH and 425 miles at 70 MPH.

Supposedly, but that has not been my experience.

 

[howardnj]

No one needs a 500 mile range EV in my opinion as who can drive 500 miles without stopping for a bathroom, food, stretch break?
I was a little nervous for my recent first long distance road trip from NJ to Florida. What I have now discovered and compiled is there are a total of 44 Tesla charge stations between my NJ location and my Florida destination for both the straight I95 and the Cape May Ferry route bypassing the Washington, DC heavy traffic.
I like to charge while I pee.

 

[exxxviii]

Supposedly, but that has not been my experience.

Those reflect controlled or semi-controlled tests by Car and Driver and InsideEVs. Think of those as baselines from EPA range. Then, if you have additional adjusting factors (like additional speed, aggressive driving, cold weather, elevation changes, towing, etc.) you can apply them. But for a normal drive with normal HVAC settings in normal weather (neither hot nor cold), I think those 70% and 85% factors are trustworthy on the Model Y.

 

[tangible1]

Supposedly, but that has not been my experience.

2022 MYLR 19" Gemini (Continentals) and 18" M3 Aero (BFG Trail Terrain)
60-ish mph - gets EPA rated range
70-ish mph - gets 240 miles
80-ish mph - gets 190 miles
90-ish mph - all bets are off, but it's fun

Those are the results I've gotten from testing mine, delivered January 2022
At some point I'll be checking to see what if any battery capacity reduction has occurred, but the norm is just 5% and I don't think I've even seen that.
current mileage 10300.

 

[Watts_Up]

No one needs a 500 mile range EV in my opinion

I like to go hicking and I need to reach some remote lookout where I could park.

If I charge to 90% at the last Supercharger, or public L2 charger, that I could use,​

and I want to still have 20% left as safety before reaching back the Supercharger:​

​

- With a 500 miles range vehicle, I can drive only a one way up trip of:​

​

1/2 of (90% - 20%) = 35% of 500 miles range = 175 miles.​

​

- With my current 300 miles range, I can drive only a one way up trip of:​

​

1/2 of (90% - 20%) = 35% of 300 miles range = 105 miles.​

​

And this is without including elevation, HVAC, dirt road or snow,​

passengers with gears, and camping stuff....​

However, when going down the hill, I would get some regen back.​

So a larger battery would be welcome when not driving near a major highway.

I would like, for example, to visit the Glacier National Park,​

but this seems to be almost impossible unless you can​

make a reservation in an hotel with a plug.​

​

When park, I am considering covering the car with flexible solar panels but I could​

get only about 6 hours of 1 kWh or about 20 to 30 additional miles a day.​

Also, in the US, when driving North-South in states like North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas ...,
you often need to make long detours to find a Supercharger and drive at a reduce speed.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

Imagine that you were an automobile owner around 1910 and you were using a hand crank to start your car.

Be reasonable! I'd have my man do that

 

[Watts_Up]

Still vaporware but could eventually happen:

Nio ET7 with 150 kWh solid-state battery and 1,000 km range is coming this year

Nio has confirmed it will introduce a 150 kWh solid-state battery to its cars later this year with the ET7 being able to cover over 1,000 km on single charge.

www.arenaev.com

21 July 2022​

Nio is well on track to introduce its solid-state 150kWh battery pack to its model lineup this year. ​

The battery has a solid electrolyte, silicon-carbon composite anode and nickel cathode. ​

​

According to Nio, the energy density stands at 360 WH/kg. ​

Tesla Model 3 LR achieves a density of 150Wh/kg for comparison.​

 

[ucmndd]

"As it stands, current battery capacity and Tesla Supercharger network is not that far off from parity with ICE road trip times."

This is literally a complete lie. LOL

It’s dependent on how you travel.

I’ve been all over the Western US in my Model S with the family. There’s no going 200 miles in ANY direction without someone needing to pee, eat, stretch, whatever. If your goal is to travel in relative comfort, at a reasonable pace, then we have very little stationary time for charging that isn’t also for some other reason.

And that’s in an ancient Model S with about 200 miles effective range and slow charging by modern standards.

If your travel objective is of the “get there as fast as possible, piss in this Gatorade bottle” variety then yeah, there’s a time difference.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

wondering if I should wait for new Tesl Model Y with 4680 Battery. What do you guys think?

Why not go the whole hog and wait for the thing that comes after the 4680 battery?

 

[tangible1]

Still vaporware but could eventually happen:

Nio ET7 with 150 kWh solid-state battery and 1,000 km range is coming this year

Nio has confirmed it will introduce a 150 kWh solid-state battery to its cars later this year with the ET7 being able to cover over 1,000 km on single charge.

www.arenaev.com

21 July 2022​

Nio is well on track to introduce its solid-state 150kWh battery pack to its model lineup this year. ​

The battery has a solid electrolyte, silicon-carbon composite anode and nickel cathode. ​

​

According to Nio, the energy density stands at 360 WH/kg. ​

Tesla Model 3 LR achieves a density of 150Wh/kg for comparison.​

still vaporware.
just as most of these pronouncements are.
but internet blogs thrive on the clickbait, so they persist

 

[gsmith123]

Lots of good explanations in this thread of why a significantly longer range Model Y is not super likely. Another lens to look at this through is what Tesla has on their plate to focus on this year:

- Berlin and Austin are still ramping. Focus will be on Model Y volume and cost reduction (using both 2170 and 4680 platforms), rather than new battery pack variants.
- Cybertruck initial production. This is a big one in the US and probably a major focus (with the totally new manufacturing techniques).
- Early development of the next gen platform
- Ramp Semi production (with either 2170 or 4680 cells)

All of these seem like more important projects.

Tesla is also pushing hard into lower prices for Model 3 and Y. I'd expect they care more about driving down costs for a 250 - 350 mile range car as absolutely far as possible than to add complexity with a lower volume higher end model (and more trims = lower efficiency production).

I hope eventually we get higher capacity / lighter 4680 based packs on 3, Y, and S & X.

 

[STS-134]

Yeah Elon is completely wrong here.

500+ miles EPA "rated" means 300+ miles real range, which is what will be needed for mass adoption.

Many of my friends who are now moving to EV are super disappointed in their range (from all brands) and have to keep a gas car for any trips.

The EPA sucks for allowing EV makers to test their cars and give a "combined" range as the range of the car. While people do care about efficiency (which is better expressed in kWh/mi so people know what they'll be paying to operate the vehicle), the only time I ever meet or beat the vehicle's estimates is when if I encounter stop and go traffic. Now, a lot of people probably do commute in stop and go traffic, but the combined range of the car is completely meaningless. You're charging it every day, so you don't even use most of that range on your daily commute. When you do care about the full range of the battery is on road trips (high speed for prolonged periods of time) and so you're generally looking at the 75+ mph range in that use case.

No one needs a 500 mile range EV in my opinion as who can drive 500 miles without stopping for a bathroom, food, stretch break?

Except the real world range of these cars (long range models) is more like 240-260 miles @ 80 mph. And for the record, the longest drive I've done without stopping to get out of the car was Saratoga, CA to Carlsbad, CA (~430 miles) and I only stopped because I was afraid I'd run out of gas. Otherwise I'd have gone straight to La Jolla. And I have been between Saratoga and Anaheim/Disneyland (~360 miles) many times without stopping, or stopping only to pee. A 3-5 minute stop is insufficient time to recover enough range to make the rest of this trip on a vehicle with a real world range of 240-260 miles, at least with today's battery technology. You really need the ability to charge at about 500kW to 1MW which would be about 6-12C on a battery with 82 kWh capacity and it has to be able to hold that charge rate all the way to 100% to be truly competitive with gas.

 

[Ciaopec]

"As it stands, current battery capacity and Tesla Supercharger network is not that far off from parity with ICE road trip times."

This is literally a complete lie. LOL

With over 160,000 cross country miles I can say it's not a lie. Sixty to 90 minutes more on a 2 day trip in my Teslas. More relaxing and I drive 75 almost exclusively.
But as someone said: if you're going to pee in a bottle and cruise at 90 then, yeah, not near parity.

 

[boulder.dude]

With over 160,000 cross country miles I can say it's not a lie. Sixty to 90 minutes more on a 2 day trip in my Teslas. More relaxing and I drive 75 almost exclusively.
But as someone said: if you're going to pee in a bottle and cruise at 90 then, yeah, not near parity.

Maybe midweek fair weather trips sticking to the coasts?

The wait times at the Kansas 150kWh Superchargers are growing every trip, especially when those headwinds are blowin’!

 

[Ciaopec]

Maybe midweek fair weather trips sticking to the coasts?

The wait times at the Kansas 150kWh Superchargers are growing every trip, especially when those headwinds are blowin’!

Actually, OH-FL-MS-OH-FL-OH-NY-OH-IL-OH-FL-MS-LA-MO-IL-OH-FL. That sort of thing.