Yeah, this is the part that's not going to happen. That's the "ship" I was talking about. The big existing auto makers won't do this.
Because they have already chosen their path. It's not spite; it's economics. They aren't going to split up their vehicle lines. Redesign is expensive, and they would be faced with two terrible choices: support both ongoing, with the extra supply lines and inventory stuff and confusion and frustration for their customers, or drop CCS entirely and orphan a generation of cars they already have out, which pisses off your customers. There isn't much compelling reason to switch TO the NACS, when they already have something which is the standard across the industry of all auto manufacturers except one, and CCS is fine (for them).
It would take a lot for Ford or GM to do it. But if you look at an automaker without a major EV effort deciding to launch a new EV and debating what connector to put on it. A CCS, or an NACS with CCS adapter and a deal to use Tesla SCs plug and play, just like Teslas.
It's a no brainer what one would want as a customer. And an old company might ignore customers but a new one would not.
We're soon going to see Chinese EVs moving into the US market. Those EVs use a different connector in China of course, they are not wedded to CCS in any way, though they will support CCS2 in Europe. But in the USA, NACS with available CCS adapter is a very, very strong choice.
Right now when somebody asks me what EV to buy and they are comparing a Tesla and another, I ask, "So, do you want to take road trips?" Right now there's a huge difference in the quality of a road trip with a Tesla and a CCS car. Especially with the CCS adapter. Perhaps that gap can be narrowed, but it will be a while. And everybody says they want to take road trips, though some only expect to do it a little. While there are many factors in choosing your car, this is a big one.
And so I think we will see Chinese automakers, plus companies that haven't done too much CCS (like almost all the Japanese makers, even Nissan which was the only major of CHAdeMO and was slow to abandon it) seeing this as a great opportunity to differentiate.
As a Standard, Tesla will start to get subsidies that let them build up the SC network with tons of extra funding. They won't even have to put a CCS connector and the long cord those need on the stations. It will be the clear winner, not for the nice small plug, but because it's the connector you would want on a car you are buying today as a customer.
If I were Rivian I would seriously consider switching. They haven't sold many CCS Rivians. They are planning on building their own Rivian-dedicated chargers but it would be much better if they could just use SC, and work with Tesla to build more chargers for Rivians and Teslas. If I were Lucid I would think about it too.
The biggest problem is the old cars that put their charge port not at the corner where a Tesla cord can reach it. Hard to help them except with very bulky extension adapters.
But tell me, if you are a new EV model, from China or Japan or elsewhere, with no legacy in the market, why would you choose CCS over NACS (if you can get a deal to use Tesla SC for your cars?) I can think of only one reason -- fear of Tesla. So Tesla might need to write the contract in a way to get rid of that fear. But you also have the CCS adapter so even if you get shut out of Tesla you are still OK at all the stations that added Tesla cords, and all the CCS stations with a slight hassle.
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