Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[jbih]

VW CEO Warns of Higher Than Expected Electric Car Costs

"some of our competitors have been making more progress" - wonder if he's talking only about Tesla or also about others.

"joint interview with labor head Bernd Osterloh" - they are probably trying to prepare the workforce for cuts

 

[jbih]

Just read an article from yesterdays bi-weekly edition of Auto Motor und Sport (page 20, titled "Arbeit an der Zukunft"), a German car magazine that receives a significant amount of their advertising money from Volkswagen.

• Since two months, VW is rebuilding one line in their plant in Zwickau, Germany, for EVs based on the MEB platform (so I assume no shared line with ICE cars). Finally, six models will be built in Zwickau.
  
• The first models will be the I.D. Neo, a car similar to the Volkswagen Golf, and the SUV I.D. Crozz
• Battery cells are from Samsung and LG Chem
  
• They want to sell 100000 cars based on MEB in 2020, mostly to be sold in China due to bigger demand there and low demand in Europe
  
• Two new plants will be built in Anting, Shanghai and Foshan, Hongkong, until 2020.
• Zwickau is the template for these plants - if it is successful. They have doubts, because currently the production of electric cars is more expensive than ICE cars. To reduce costs, they want to increase the degree of automation by a factor of 3.
• The maximum capacity of the Zwickau plant is 300000 cars.
• Base price for the I.D. Neo is 25000 Euros
• Power of MEB cars is between 170 and 305 HP, range between 400 and 600 km based on NEDC (I'm guessing 200-300 miles real world range)
  
• VW wants to be second in technology and number of units - after Tesla

My opinion: The real enemy are ICE cars. They can't disappear fast enough. I don't think VW will be significant competition for Tesla, but the faster they can ramp up EV production, the better. Overwhelming demand for EVs and help from politics may make VW survive and help in the transition to a future without fossil fuels.

 

[jbih]

Auto Motor und Sport tested the Hyundai Nexo. It seems to be a decent car and they gave it 4 out of 5 stars. And they barely mention that driving hydrogen cars is a pain in the a** today, making them practically unusable - they even praise the ability to fuel up quickly, compared to the long time it takes to charge an EV. Considering they are professionals, they really don't have a clue.

 

[alloverx]

I would think in Europe that a GTI that was electric would sell well. Though price could be a factor. Perhaps they should sell at a loss initially to get some buzz going. i.e. the loss comes from marketing budget. Even better if AWD option available.

 

[RobStark]

2020 Rivian A1T electric pickup spied with a borrowed F-150 body

"Rivian says that its first model will be the pickup truck, which will be a five-passenger vehicle. Engadget reports it will be called the A1T. A seven-passenger SUV called the A1C will follow. The company plans to have the A1T on sale in 2020, but we will see what it looks like at this year's L.A. Auto Show. The news outlet further notes that the truck will be available with ranges between 200 and 450 miles, and the top-end model will produce 800 horsepower. Supposedly it will accelerate to 60 mph in just 2.8 seconds. The company is also aiming for Level 3 autonomy and a price range between $50,000 and $90,000. These are all fairly bold claims, so we'll just have to wait and see if Rivian can deliver. And stay tuned for the design unveil this fall."

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Those specs at that price-point seem next to impossible, but I'm happy to see someone commit to bringing an EV Pick-up truck to market.

 

[Brando]

I would think in Europe that a GTI that was electric would sell well. Though price could be a factor. Perhaps they should sell at a loss initially to get some buzz going. i.e. the loss comes from marketing budget. Even better if AWD option available.

Seems major auto makers continue to deny the demand for electrification. I don't get it.
Why don't they get it??
Volkswagen Halt Golf GTE Order Due To Crazy High Demand

 

[RobStark]

Those specs at that price-point seem next to impossible, but I'm happy to see someone commit to bringing an EV Pick-up truck to market.

It is obvious Rivian believes Mobile Eye will commercialize Level 3 by the time they go into production or shortly thereafter and LG Chem/Samsung SDI will be mass producing their next generation cell by then.

 

[RobStark]

Faraday Future announces mass hiring

"Vince Nguyen, director of human resources and recruiting - product and technology at Faraday Future, said the company has hired around 100 employees to work in the Hanford facility and ultimately hopes to employ around 1,000 people by mid-2019.


.....with first deliveries scheduled to begin in December through the middle of 2019."

 

[alloverx]

Sounds like GM with the Bolt, got to have deliveries in Dec to claim available in current year.

 

[RobStark]

Sounds like GM with the Bolt, got to have deliveries in Dec to claim available in current year.

In order for FF CEO Jia Yueting to keep his job he has to delivery a US homologated FF91 to a retail customer by Dec 31 2018.

 

[oneday]

Audi live stream 8:30 PST tomorrow.

 

[Mo City]

What is the consensus on which USA or European auto company will be the first to (1) mass produce in significant volume (2) competitively priced and (3) competitively spec EVs against Tesla? All 3 criterion must be met or it isn't legit. Example: The Bolt isn't legit because it will NEVER be mass produced.

I've read reports that 2019 will be the year but that is complete nonsense unless I'm overlooking someone. IMO, it will be 2021 at the soonest. The way I see it, Tesla will have the field to themselves for the next 3+ years before maybe one or two competitors will be able to affect them.

What am I overlooking?

 

[Brando]

What is the consensus on which USA or European auto company will be the first to (1) mass produce in significant volume (2) competitively priced and (3) competitively spec EVs against Tesla? All 3 criterion must be met or it isn't legit. Example: The Bolt isn't legit because it will NEVER be mass produced.

I've read reports that 2019 will be the year but that is complete nonsense unless I'm overlooking someone. IMO, it will be 2021 at the soonest. The way I see it, Tesla will have the field to themselves for the next 3+ years before maybe one or two competitors will be able to affect them.

What am I overlooking?

Perhaps, just perhaps, the Chinese might be the most serious about making batteries. Which is the limiting function for now.
And the Chinese government seems to be pushing harder for electrification than all others.
Seems the major auto makers still trying to decide which type cell and/or supplier (and who should make the car's battery pack).
[Why is Jag i-Pace startup so slow? or are our expectations not realistic?]

Economic downturn is the joker in our deck (along with our Washington DC city full of jokers). War is another joker in the deck, right?

My cynical side also suspects the "Wall Street only stock price & profits matter" CEO/management wants to hold back as the next crash will allow them more flexibility to re-organize for electrification and pressure both employees/Unions and the government/regulators.
Cynical enough?

Mean while Elon keeps working on the product. Building the best. Continuous improvement in most all things.

now what am I overlooking ??

PS - 165 Tesla Headlines, 81 Negative & 39 Positive — #Pravduh About #Tesla | CleanTechnica
In the first week of September, 208 Tesla-related headlines were published in the major media outlets we tracked. Out of those 208 headlines, 155 of them included negative insinuations, 26 of them implied something positive, and the remaining 27 appeared neutral. Starting from this week, we have a few new charts of interesting information for you to consider.

 

[jbih]

g

What is the consensus on which USA or European auto company will be the first to (1) mass produce in significant volume (2) competitively priced and (3) competitively spec EVs against Tesla? All 3 criterion must be met or it isn't legit. Example: The Bolt isn't legit because it will NEVER be mass produced.

I've read reports that 2019 will be the year but that is complete nonsense unless I'm overlooking someone. IMO, it will be 2021 at the soonest. The way I see it, Tesla will have the field to themselves for the next 3+ years before maybe one or two competitors will be able to affect them.

What am I overlooking?

I'm guessing this:

2018 - The incumbents find out the Model 3 is profitable, awesome and ramp up is real. Management panics, serious commitments are done, development starts but structural problems prevent catching up.
2022 - The incumbents bring cars to the market with price & spec of 2016 Teslas

A story from Germany: In 1990, everybody was wondering how long it would take until East Germany will reach parity with West Germany. Some guessed 10 years, some guessed 20 years. In 2018, inequality between East and West Germany is still very pronounced. I'm really not sure the incumbents will ever make cars that reach parity with Tesla.

 

[neroden]

What is the consensus on which USA or European auto company will be the first to (1) mass produce in significant volume (2) competitively priced and (3) competitively spec EVs against Tesla? All 3 criterion must be met or it isn't legit. Example: The Bolt isn't legit because it will NEVER be mass produced.

VW in 2020 or 2021. I think Diess is serious and he's converting entire factories to all-electric.

Anyone else won't do it before 2021-2022.

Japanese companies: Nissan might come out with something in late 2019. Nobody else will ever come out with anything.

Korean: Kia/Hyundai might come out with something if they resolve their battery supply issues.

Chinese: several possibilities for real competitors quite quickly. This is why China is the only real alternative to Tesla for EVs in the pre-2020 period.

 

[scaesare]

2020 Rivian A1T electric pickup spied with a borrowed F-150 body

"Rivian says that its first model will be the pickup truck, which will be a five-passenger vehicle. Engadget reports it will be called the A1T. A seven-passenger SUV called the A1C will follow. The company plans to have the A1T on sale in 2020, but we will see what it looks like at this year's L.A. Auto Show. The news outlet further notes that the truck will be available with ranges between 200 and 450 miles, and the top-end model will produce 800 horsepower. Supposedly it will accelerate to 60 mph in just 2.8 seconds. The company is also aiming for Level 3 autonomy and a price range between $50,000 and $90,000. These are all fairly bold claims, so we'll just have to wait and see if Rivian can deliver. And stay tuned for the design unveil this fall."

With an intact front clip, I wonder what the need for the aluminum bumper extension up front is...

Also, I wonder if this is supposed to be 4WD. Would like to have seen a pic of the front axle area.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Seems major auto makers continue to deny the demand for electrification. I don't get it.
Why don't they get it??
Volkswagen Halt Golf GTE Order Due To Crazy High Demand

This isn`t about "not getting it".

This is about not wanting to change. If you had billions over billions in production capacities and supplier networks for ICE cars and stockholders that expect you to turn in a profit every quarter you`d try switching at the last possible moment, too.

I can understand what the classic manufacturers are doing from an economic viewpoint. As a customer who`s eager to switch to a BEV I hate it, but I can`t deny the reasoning behind it.
They are currently walking the fine line between trying to get the max profit out of the old world while just barely keeping up with the new tech as to be able to switch rapidly when the time has come and completely losing every chance to get a foot into the new market at all.

Considering that the new fleet co2 limits will bring seriously life threatening fines with them in 2021 it`s really really about time for the old carmakers to make some serious BEV efforts though.

 

[jeewee3000]

Hey gang,

Since I got tired of all the arguments regarding existing competition for Tesla, and since I was curious, I created a list of currently available BEV's for comparison.

This list is based on the Wikipedia list regarding all currently existing electric vehicles (the highway vehicle section, not city cars or supercars) but modified in the following ways:

- any car that is not available as a 100% battery powered electric car (= hybrids) is omitted from my list, I'm looking at pure BEV's;
- any car that has never reached production stage and therefore remains a concept or a plan is omitted;
- I deleted some cars that I could never buy in my country (Belgium), like the BMW Brilliance Zinoro 1E (only available in Beijing and Shanghai), as they are not relevant for my purpose (= answering the question if I can get my hands on a better BEV than a Tesla). However, during my research I cut some corners on this. Some cars that are (currently) available only in a select geographical area are left in, if they show steady production and if I might buy one if I go over there. Not very scientific, I looked at each car individually to see if it is "established" or not in some countries and made crap-shoot decisions based on that.
- cars that are highlighted in orange were available to buy, but not anymore. They do reflect the pricing and state of technology so I left these in.
- pricing highlighted in red is estimated pricing because these vehicles cannot be bought in one go. You have to rent the battery pack for a monthly fee so if you hold on to your BEV for a long time the price gets more and more expensive. Red meaning the price is deceiving.

I wanted to upload this in Excel format, but the TMC message boards don't allow that. Therefore I made an as-fitting-as-possible print-screen for your viewing pleasure, which is of course not handy as you can't sort by price and the like.

Prices have been converted to EUR because I want a comparison in my country. The prices listed are the base price for the model with that particular range, as little options as possible.

Anyway, I guess my research shows - needless to say - that Tesla is a pretty good deal. The Bolt is surprisingly strong too though, as are some others.

Of course if you take into account luxury and other things the comparison will be more clear to give Tesla the lead.

If a new BEV gets released (meaning NOT a concept and for purchase in North America or Europe) I will try to add those to my list, to keep an eye on the technology and pricing of competitors.

TL;DR: Did some research, Tesla provides great bang for your buck.

[EDIT: changed the uploaded file to include the brand names (this info was off-screen), leaves release date out of the picture however]

 

[SDRick]

There are some advantages learning from, and not being the pioneer. Let the others plow the fields, spend the R&D money, take risks, do the heavy lifting and make the mistakes.