Well it was supposed to be the biggest building in the world, when it was completed. Which has never happened. It is only ~33% completed and I don't think that qualifies for the biggest building in the world title. (I suspect that GigaTexas will be bigger.)
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Well it was supposed to be the biggest building in the world, when it was completed. Which has never happened. It is only ~33% completed and I don't think that qualifies for the biggest building in the world title. (I suspect that GigaTexas will be bigger.)
Doggydogworld
Active Member
You're correct. It's not that high on the list, which itself is probably incomplete.
Someone mentioned DBE not working for small diameters. I've heard that as well. A large hollow core would explain why 4680 has 5.5x the volume of 2170 but only 5x the energy capacity. Of course it's not clear DBE even works for large diameters yet, or ever will. IMHO Panasonic and LG are betting against it.
Me thinks the shingle tabs also require a minimum radius. Plus, total area per turn in the inner layers is much less, so just skip is.
Andrew mentioned on the earnings call that all issues Kato had found had been overcome: transcript from Fool
Solar tax: Networks able to charge households to export solar power to grid
Households may soon be taxed for solar exports sent back to the grid, but the rule maker promises this will eliminate current constraints on exports and make the system fairer.
reneweconomy.com.au
This gives some idea of the potential market for Powerwalls.
I posted links to these videos as it is important to remember how good Tesla's energy software solution is, particularly the VPP software.
Also SMR came to the same conclusion that I did in that Solar and Powerwall sales allow a home VPP and make the possibility of ongoing income streams from Tesla energy solutions more viable....
IMO the income streams could include:-
- Licensing fees for software paid buy grid operators - generators, retailers, utilities.
- Licensing fees and software sales to home VPP operators.
- A cut of the money made form home VPPs from the retailer/utility or the homeowner.
- Money made/saved from Tesla's own solar and battery installations..
Add in the Tesla inverter home HVAC, hot water, home charging, smart WiFi based timer devices for power outlets, etc.
A VPP can optimize most significant uses of power in a household, in aggregate VPPs can do a lot to optimize power at the grid level and reduce costs.
I'd see Tesla realising some additional income streams, particularly where they are the primary operator of the VPP. With a large enough VPP in a grid network region Tesla could amalgamte the whole VPP to participate in the various frequency control (FCAS) markets and sell power into demand response markets. The individual home owner would receive a cut of the fees generated to give Tesla the right to cycle their batteries. Increasingly I see Tesla becoming a major utility provider of energy and services on grids rather than just selling or licensing their products to other grid operators and utilities. The Texas mega-pack installation appears to be one of the first instances of this at the industrial scale through their Gambit Energy Storage subsiduary.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Billions and billions in revenue available for Tesla in Texas, and billions in savings for ratepayers!
Vistra Says 70% of Gas Force Majeures Preceded Texas Blackouts ["Bloomberg - Are you a robot?"]
Basically, gas supply was shutdown before the blackouts started.
More proof of where the issues really are.
Vistra Says 70% of Gas Force Majeures Preceded Texas Blackouts ["Bloomberg - Are you a robot?"]
Basically, gas supply was shutdown before the blackouts started.
More proof of where the issues really are.
petit_bateau
Active Member
It seems a bit odd that LG Chem haven't forwards-integrated to ship ready-stuffed containers. Is there more to this than meets the eye ?
www.renewableenergyworld.com
Solar and wind generation in West Texas to be backed with more large-scale storage
"These batteries are allowing us to benefit from peak energy generation to account for the dips that come with energy shortages.”
www.renewableenergyworld.com
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
This US Gov note is likely to be relevant to Tesla's energy division
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Good except for
Open to support for natural gas and oil heat generation. We are open to supporting the
use of natural gas and oil products for household heat generation projects, in particular
clean cooking projects, if no cleaner options are feasible. We will consider natural gas
and oil products for industrial or district heat generation on a case-by-case basis.
petit_bateau
Active Member
This US EIA report (EIA - U.S. Battery Storage Market Trends) has data some here may find interesting.
It reckons that at end 2019 the USA had 1.688 gigawatthours (GWh) of utility-scale battery storage. To put that in perspective at end 2019 Tesla had installed 3.613 GWh of utilty+domestic scale storage worldwide. I reckon there is about 50% of Tesla storage going into Powerwall so that is domestic scale, with ther rest being a fair proxy for utility scale. So that would be 1.8 GWh of Tesla utility scale storage shipped. What we don't know is what fraction of that went to USA, but even if it was only one-third (with the rest being say Aus + UK + etc as we know there were installs in those countries) then that gives a pretty shrewd indication of the likely Tesla storage market share. Other data I have seen gives Tesla a 50% market share.
By the way this List of countries by electricity production - Wikipedia gives USA as being 4/22 of total world electricty use, which again puts things in perspective, i.e. 18% of world fraction.
It reckons that at end 2019 the USA had 1.688 gigawatthours (GWh) of utility-scale battery storage. To put that in perspective at end 2019 Tesla had installed 3.613 GWh of utilty+domestic scale storage worldwide. I reckon there is about 50% of Tesla storage going into Powerwall so that is domestic scale, with ther rest being a fair proxy for utility scale. So that would be 1.8 GWh of Tesla utility scale storage shipped. What we don't know is what fraction of that went to USA, but even if it was only one-third (with the rest being say Aus + UK + etc as we know there were installs in those countries) then that gives a pretty shrewd indication of the likely Tesla storage market share. Other data I have seen gives Tesla a 50% market share.
By the way this List of countries by electricity production - Wikipedia gives USA as being 4/22 of total world electricty use, which again puts things in perspective, i.e. 18% of world fraction.
Interesting points on the co-location of batteries with generation and how it's expected to trend heavily to hybrid PV.
That Article You Linked said:
Co-location with PV is kind of obvious:
- Known production curves with many hours of guaranteed spare inverter capacity.
- Already oversized due to the economics so there is already some otherwise wasted energy
- Adding storage will allow further oversizing, which should help both extend and flatten the production curve as seen from the grid.
Hybrid PV is going to be eating fossil peakers' supper in sunny locations. We should be particularly happy, because it's replacing the least efficient generation.
| Prime Mover | Coal | Petroleum | Natural Gas | Nuclear |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steam Generator | 10002 | 10236 | 10347 | 10442 |
| Gas Turbine | -- | 13315 | 11098 | -- |
| Internal Combustion | -- | 10325 | 8899 | -- |
| Combined Cycle | W | 9662 | 7633 | -- |
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
Tesla hit 1 GWh in May 2018. If I add 100 MWh for the back half of Q2 2018 and 239 + 225 MWh for Q3 and Q4 respectively I get 1564 MWh at YE18. Then 1561 MWh in 2019 gives 3125 MWh at YE19.
Tesla said they installed the 100,000th Powerwall in Q1 2020. Almost all those would be the 13.5 kWh PW2, so probably ~1250 MWh as of YE19. That gives about 1.9 GWh of utility scale as of YE19, very close to your estimate.
I'm not sure how well EIA/DOE tracks storage, though. They maintain a list of projects, but it seems to be lacking.
Co-lo also saves on connection cost. Instead of 400 MW worth of inverters, transformers, etc. that are only fully used at the peak you have 200 MW that are fully used 12+ hours/day.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
DoE and Secretary Granholm seem to understand the crucial nature of storage, but not seeing much early action at the federal regulatory level. I guess without massive subsidy, it's best to integrate storage requirements for solar and wind PPAs alongside something like a revenue-neutral carbon tax.
A few simple rules from FERC would get all this moving in a flash, we simply lack the political will.
We don't even need any subsidies. Hell....a piece of legislation to phase out all current energy subsidy, initiate a reasonable revenue-neutral carbon tax to funded transmission build-out, and giving renewables grid priority would literally solve all our problems for free. It's just not in many people's interest to do so.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I think my data respcted all the various announcements you have noted, plus a few other snippets I've picked up.
This is an area whereall the salaried analysts (or interns) are woefully behind the curve. Very few people understand the import of these numbers, and even fewer are motivated to speak publicly about them. If you sit in a MegaCorp Utility it is awful hard to say "al our bases are belong them".
A nuance I would put forwards is that the further away from the equator a site gets, the more the coupling of wind with storage should be preferred. However the way the market is put together at the moment coupling solar PV with storage is very much the default option at all latitudes. Right now that nuance is no big deal, but if it becomes baked in for too much longer then we are collectively running into a very sub-optimal cul-de-sac. Timing of generation (or storage release) in calendar-terms is insufficiently rewarded in the market at the moment, in almost all markets around the world.
jhm
Well-Known Member
U.S. Large-Scale Battery Storage Capacity Is Booming | OilPrice.com
Large-scale battery power capacity in the United States jumped by 35 percent last year to reach 1,650 megawatts (MW), and the significant growth of the past few years is set to continue
oilprice.com
Even Oilprice.com is picking up on the EIA battery story. I especially like that EIA is recognizing that battery storage will grow exponentially for a while. (Big change from the days when all assumed growth was essentially linear.)
It seems the EIA IA assuming a mere 20% annual growth rate, in spite of recent 35%. But still this counts as exponential growth. However, 35% growth would add nearly 15GW thru 2023. We'll see.
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