I would follow all of the advice given so far to rent a 3 from Turo (oldest SR+ you can find, for the worst case example). I would further suggest that before you do your test run, charge or drain the battery to 90% and select your destination using the in-car navigation. At the bottom of the route listing will be an estimate of the battery's capacity if you plan to make a round trip. That will tell you right away if the car thinks it can make the trip. Keep the heat on for the duration of the drive, say 76-78 degrees and drive as fast / aggressively as you normally do; in other words, don't take any steps to "hypermile" or lessen the amount of energy used. When you get to your destination, I'm assuming your workplace, subtract about 15 miles from the battery's range in order to estimate your worst case phantom drain during the day that your car sits at work (8 to 10 hours). This should be the worst case if you keep Sentry Mode on or have to pre-condition the cabin (heat or cool) before driving. If you are making this trip on a weekend and don't plan to spend the actual time at "work", then drive around the vicinity to burn off those 15 miles before going back home. Before your return trip home, again use the in-car navigation and it will tell you if you need to hit a Supercharger (and where it is).
Doing this should tell you how much of a mileage / range buffer you can expect during "normal" usage. That should tell you if you need to spend the extra money for the LR model. Note that weather conditions during the year will affect your range; cold and headwinds are worse but so can extreme heat (more A/C usage). Elevation increases will sap the battery faster but a portion of it can be "recovered" when you reverse course and head back downhill. So will hauling extra weight so if you can convince one or two people to accompany you on your test drive, that will be even more of a worst case example.
