dhanson865
Well-Known Member
None of this is new. Compare a slightly used Mercedes S-class to a new C-class, or a used BMW 7-Series to a new 3-Series.
None of what is new?
Since when do those cars have the tech a Tesla has?
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None of this is new. Compare a slightly used Mercedes S-class to a new C-class, or a used BMW 7-Series to a new 3-Series.
New CPO - might be unlisted still.
I’ve got a very clean, 2014 60kWh Model S, White, Panoramic Roof, 19” wheels, Textile Seats, Piano Black Décor, AutoPilot, Tech Package, Ultra HiFi Sound.
12100 miles. Fully Certified and Priced at $58500!
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I disagree.
I 2018 Model 3 will have newer tech. Elon says 5% or more improvement per year in battery tech. It'll weigh 20% less so a smaller battery will take it just as far and accelerate faster for the same motor power / torque.
I think you'll find for those reasons a 2018 Model 3 will trounce a 2015 model S in most stats. Enough so that quite a few Model S owners will trade in creating a greater supply pushing down Model S prices (at least the older Model S years).
A 2106 or 2017 Model S might compare better to a 2018 Model 3 but it still won't be a clean sweep. The smaller size/weight of the 3 will be a plus for many buyers (parking space/garage size, inner city driving, European old cities).
I'll agree it is a different market segment but I think some of the advantages of the Model 3 will pull people away from the Model S even if the price tag is lower.
Glad to hear you've resolved the issues to some level of satisfaction. It does make me feel better that Tesla did what they could to resolve issues for you. Enjoy the ride!All of my concerns have been addressed. Tesla and I disagreed on one thing, but it has been addressed at this point and I'm just moving on. My car has been amazing and my local service center is still fantastic. They've had to tweak a few things on my car and it has been continued to be a stellar experience to work with them.
None of what is new?
Since when do those cars have the tech a Tesla has?
I think you'll find for those reasons a 2018 Model 3 will trounce a 2015 model S in most stats. Enough so that quite a few Model S owners will trade in creating a greater supply pushing down Model S prices (at least the older Model S years)
Maybe, maybe not. For us, size matters. A smaller car wouldn't appeal, we already have a Smart ED for zipping around town, the Tesla is our road trip car, and for that use, bigger is better.
I agree size does matter...but would you prefer to drive non auto pilot Model S with 85kWh battery or 100kWh (possibly) battery high end Model 3 with all updated features and autopilot ?.
I agree size does matter...but would you prefer to drive non auto pilot Model S with 85kWh battery or 100kWh (possibly) battery high end Model 3 with all updated features and autopilot ?
I agree with dhanson865....
Some freebie analysis, take it for what u will....Me thinks u r fantasizing a bit if u think the model 3 will ever have a higher battery capacity than the MS will (much less the same size)....maybe they will let it catch up and be like a 60kWh size, but no way till at least 3-5 yrs after production...y u say? 1) Different market segment. 2) Because it would canabalize MS sales. 3) Pissing off current MS owners not a good idea, many of whom will likely be the first to buy the model 3 as their second car........And by that time, tesla will have figured out how to make it advantageous to do battery swapping for the current MS owners....so we'd likely get the benefit of the future 100 (or higher) battery capacities first given Gigafactory coming online in a few years...or so that's my guess...lol...ok bye now.
1. a new Model S will always have the same or higher capacity battery as the top option than a model 3
2. a used Model S can pay some outrageous price to upgrade the battery pack to the new version no matter what year it is
3. if the upgrade price isn't a preferred option someone will always have the option of trading up to a newer Model S instead of upgrading the older Model S. This will have a cost also.
But ignoring upgrades of existing cars you have the situation where (Model S options by year - a running history - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum)
2012 -2015 (pre April 2105) Model S only had 60 kwh and 85 kwh options
April 2015 to current adds 70 kwh and 90 kwh for Model S (90 kwh confirmed for Model X, unknown when a lower capacity will be added)
now lets extrapolate a little
Say in 2016 we gain a 75 kwh for Model X and Model S and a 95 kwh for both as well.
Say in 2017 Model S/X have a 80 kwh and 100 kwh
Say in 2018 Model S/X have a 85 kwh and 105 kwh
If the Model 3 has a 80% size and gets better efficiency from it then it gets similar range from an 80% sized battery. (you can argue that point in 300+ Mile Model 3?)
So say the 2018 Model 3 has a 85 kwh battery pack that gives it the same range as a Model S at 105 kwh and there is also a Model 3 with a 70 kwh battery pack that gives it similar range to a Model S with a 85 kWh battery pack.
You end up with CPO and used cars in buckets chronologically of
Model S60 pre AP (2012 to early 2014)
Model S85 pre AP (2012 to early 2014)
Model S60 with AP (late 2014)
Model S85 with AP (late 2014)
Model S70 (early 2015)
Model S90 (mid 2015)
Model S75 (2016)
Model S95 (2016)
Model S80 (2017)
Model S100 (2017)
Model 3 - 65 (range similar to a S80) - 2018 version
Model 3 - 80 (range similar to a S100) - 2018 version
Model S85 (2018 version)
Model S105 (2018)
I'll argue that much of the cost savings for Model 3 are in economies of scale and aren't just decontenting. A fully loaded Model 3 will be competitive to a comparably loaded Model S enough so that they'll be demand limited as usual.
I'm expecting the Model S of the second half of 2017 to have a equal pack in terms of range as a 2018 Model 3. I'm assuming the packs aren't interchangeable between S/X and 3 but are interchangeable between S and X.
So in 2018 I'm saying a new Model 3 will be a better car than a 2015 model S just because the motors/drive train components/fuses/inverters/charger/battery pack improvements will be significant and I don't think they'll decontent the interior enough to turn away people based on luxury.
I think this practically guaranteed inprovement in range and component quality will be different enough from gas car improvements to make the S vs 3 comparison similar in 2018 vs 2018 but very different in comparing 2018 Model 3 to 2015 Model S.
You have to understand that though for $35-40K that the Model 3 is "suppose" to cost (laugh), you will not have a lot of Model S features. I highly doubt it would have the 17" screen. Or look anywhere near as good as the Model S or as fast. I expect something more along the lines of the Chevy Volt in size and shape. Just look how frumpy the Model X looks compared to the S, it will be interesting to see what the 3 look's like.
And similar to configuring the S, $35k will be the start price for textile seats, no air suspension, solid roof, standard wheels, no spoiler, no power liftgate, etc. The way I would want a 3, I wouldn't be surprised if it would run me $50k. But we shall see.
You know the Roadster cost more than the Model S right? You know the Roadster has less features than the Model S right?
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Seriously. Take a look at the battery upgrade for roadster 3.0. They are getting a battery pack hand assembled for similar pricing as a Model S pack upgrade (Tesla doing right by early adopters and selling at cost or at a loss?). The Model S pack is made with assembly line robots and done in medium size batches. Model 3 will be done with assembly line robots in larger batches. Economies of scale have a big effect on price of a product.
80% less material in the car * 10 times as many cars per year * a new battery plant that is reducing the cost of batteries to 70% of current costs per kWh = a serious cost reduction without any loss of features.
They may choose to offer different features between S and 3 for artificial segmentation purposes to justify the price premium on the S but I don't think you need to compare the 3 to a Chevy Volt in any way.
And the $35K version is to compete with the current S70 (rear motor only). I'm sure there will be a much higher cost if you put all the options on and have a Model 3 in the style of a P90D.
You know the Roadster cost more than the Model S right? You know the Roadster has less features than the Model S right?
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors
shhhh don't tell anyone!