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This would be great, thanks Hank. I might be over in Europe for a few months and trying to figure cost of renting a Model vs expected depreciation cost of a CPO/Inv car. I really just don't want a fossil burner if reasonable ...

Just as an advance notice, once I iron out a few bu^H^Hfeatures, I should have European CPO and Inventory car listed on EV-CPO.com very soon! There's just some messiness with miles/kms and local currencies to hash out.

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I say that because Elon Musk and JB Straubel have given guidance repeatedly that there will be a 5-10% increase per year between now and 2020 due to advances they are currently seeing and expect at the gigafactory in Nevada.

They are telling press, investors, industry analysts, etcetera to expect this.

They did not say that in the far past. They did start saying that more recently. When exactly the transition was I didn't try to pin down. I just pay attention to their guidance. I suggest reading

Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
Tesla Gigafactory

until you find the links to the videos of Musk or JB being interviewed or giving a live presentation at a conference. You'll see several references to the coming capacity increases in slides and verbally.

At the conference for just after the 90 kWh release Musk said that there would be an increase every year or some wording similar to that but said it wouldn't be worth buying a new battery for a used car until at least 2 or 3 years worth of capacity improvements had occurred (implying wait as long as you can between pack upgrades because we'll be upgrading packs more often than it make sense for you to do so).

I'm going totally from memory but if you really need me to I can cite references and post more accurate quotes some day when I get bored.

Beyond that I'm just using round 5kw numbers because its easier to guess that. They could possibly skip a 5 and make a 10 jump or use odd numbers. I don't have insider information on specific capacities or release dates.

I'd also expect the low and high packs to increase on seperate months or even separate years as they run out of old production and start using new. The fact that they'll be upping the low and the high means they may do one in early 2016 and the other in late 2016. I doubt that they'll bump both at the exact same time.

Oh and we currently have

low = 70
mid = 85
high = 90

I'm expecting the mid is a phase out of the old high and once they run out of 85s or want to introduce a 95 the 85 will disappear. I won't guarantee that they'll always keep more than 2 sizes available in new cars. I won't rule out that for very very short periods there might be 3 or 4 pack sizes as they phase in a new capacity for the new low, new high, or both.
You may have misunderstood what they meant.
What they are talking about is battery cell energy density, 5% increase per year, that's not the same as getting a bigger battery pack every year.
 
You may have misunderstood what they meant.
What they are talking about is battery cell energy density, 5% increase per year, that's not the same as getting a bigger battery pack every year.

Nope, Elon specifically talked about the 90 kWh pack vs the 85 and how there would be higher capacity packs coming. He recommended not upgrading until 2 or 3 years had gone by when there had been multiple pack capacity changes.

Hence the statement from CEO Musk stating that he “wouldn’t recommend doing so (upgrading to 90 kWh) unless your usage is on the edge of current range.” While adding, “On average, we expect to increase pack capacity by roughly 5% per year. Better to wait until you have more time on your existing pack and there is a larger accumulated pack energy difference.”
 
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Nope, Elon specifically talked about the 90 kWh pack vs the 85 and how there would be higher capacity packs coming. He recommended not upgrading until 2 or 3 years had gone by when there had been multiple pack capacity changes.
I stand corrected!
I did not see that, I remember JB and Elon talking about battery energy density improving 5% every year. Did not see the part about battery pack capacity increasing 5% every year.
 
I stand corrected!
I did not see that, I remember JB and Elon talking about battery energy density improving 5% every year. Did not see the part about battery pack capacity increasing 5% every year.

Well they never specifically promised it would be every year, they just say it many different ways implying that capacity, density, cost, weight, and so on will all improve.

Note cost is a profitability factor and does not equal price. They may increase the price, keep the price, or reduce the price at any time related to or unrelated to capacity increases.

No guarantees on schedule or how many factors change (they may make a increase in capacity and reduce cost this time, increase capacity and reduce weight the next time, reduce weight and cost another time without increasing capacity, and so on).

They also say that each change is a discreet step not a smooth x percent per month or x percent per year. It could stall for some number of months or years and then jump. They just describe it as the projected average of the slope(s).