I think this is pessimistic. If we don't hear anything about the Model Y in March, I would expect Tesla to be planning a reveal in 2017 and then production in 2018.
"Full AP"? If by that you mean that Tesla is going to have autonomous driving this year, that is incorrect. Elon has said his goal is 2 to 3 years for autonomous driving being available from Tesla, and that may be optimistic. He has also said that it may be available before government laws allow it to be used.
Perhaps. The problem is convincing General Motors of that fact. They have no current intention of selling any fully electric vehicle at that volume.
Yes. I have often pointed out that a base BMW 3-Series is not really appointed better than a base Toyota Camry LE. People are confused because, well, none of the 'independent franchised dealerships' actually offer a base 320i. Instead, they sell an optioned up version of the same car in the $42,000-$45,000 range.
They'll be able to manage the feat easily. The most expensive component of a Model S or Model X is the battery pack. The Gigafactory is essential to bring its price down considerably for use in Generation III vehicles. The electric motors cost next to nothing, and certainly less than those ICE found in competition such as 3-Series, A4, ATS, IS, XE, etc. That's because there's hardly more to it than a spindle, copper wire, ceramic bearings, and a casing.
+42! Well played.
Exactly. The fate of the Model ≡ is inextricably tied to the Gigafactory, and vice-versa. A late release of Generation III vehicles would be catastrophic failure. One that might see the end of Tesla Motors if not executed properly. The funds that have been borrowed to construct the Gigafactory to begin with would come due, and there would be no sufficient revenue stream to pay it back. There is no way in [HECK] that Elon Musk will allow that to happen. It would mean selling off the company or giving up control to someone else.
I do expect the Model X to end up being ridiculously popular. Far more so than most realize. The flagship SUV for Premium car sales manufacturers typically outsells the top-of-the-line Sedan for the marque in the US (if not elsewhere). Once 'The WAIT' for a Model X is brought down to the 1-to-2 months range, and Production is at full steam, don't be surprised if the Model X sells at least 2:1 and eventually 3:1 versus the Model S in the US, and 1:1 in other territories. So, their combined annual sales may reach the 140,000-to-150,000 range during 2017 or 2018. Though, you are correct, that won't be enough to cover the Gigafactory. The Model ≡ must be on time.
Somehow, I doubt Canadians will decide to 'settle' for a base configuration of Porsche Cayenne instead. Though the fully loaded Model X P90D may well have an 'astronomical' price, it is still several thousand dollars less than a Cayenne Turbo S -- $157,300 to start, USD -- which goes even higher with more options. I do find it strange that those in media keep quoting the highest price point for Tesla Motors vehicles, but the lowest price points for their competitors.
But they might trade their base Model X (currently predicted to be above $90,000 CAD) for a base Cayenne (at $67,400 CAD) and have over $20,000 left over to upgrade it...
Not saying it would be my personal choice... but I can say that many people stretch to but a Tesla, and with the current RWD 70 Model S starting price over $90,000 and a promised price increase soon, it's harder and harder for people to make that stretch. I don't blame Tesla on this one, Canada is still under priced compared to the USA based on current exchange rates, but it's still pretty painful. Everything we buy has recently increased in price by a huge margin, but our pay cheques sure haven't.
