Tesla Semi

[dhanson865]

While looking at electric trucks, is anyone researching the most vulnerable name to go out first?

Well for the ones that have a brand name worth keeping even at the worst they can choose to downsize not exit the market.

If luxury car manufacturers can survive making cars by hand in the single digits per year I'd expect truck manufacturers could do the same so long as there is still a cab (creature comforts) to make better.

But I have no idea which big truck makers would fit the luxury truck mindset or would want to try and out luxury Tesla.

 

[dc_h]

Alternatively, an autonomous self-propelled trailer could navigate intermodal terminals for loading with shipping container. Then the trailer goes to designated area to be yoked with a semi. This allows the port to operate really dense logistics on its own time, and then yoking with a semis happens as semis become available and in a certain priority order.

If I was building a pilotless port vessel, I would build it differently than a truck. I think a two headed truck with a bed to hold an intermodel trailer. Some things can be done so much differently/better when designing from the ground up. The advantage of a two headed vehicle is never having to turn around and going the same speed in either direction. In a port or distribution center, never backing up would provide added productivity.
My nit picking aside, I think this is a great market opportunity. It is also a local pollution issue in the port of Los Angeles and other major ports.

 

[dc_h]

Well for the ones that have a brand name worth keeping even at the worst they can choose to downsize not exit the market.

If luxury car manufacturers can survive making cars by hand in the single digits per year I'd expect truck manufacturers could do the same so long as there is still a cab (creature comforts) to make better.

But I have no idea which big truck makers would fit the luxury truck mindset or would want to try and out luxury Tesla.

Mergers, not bankruptcies.

 

[jhm]

what are you talking about "en route" for? The quote was



The sort in that case happens at a building while the truck drives away. Nothing happens "en route" but the battery pack draining to make the vehicle move.

Now you could put an inverter in a trailer and supply power to the inside for some procedure but the person you quoted didn't suggest such a thing.

Just thinking outside the box, but not so far out as a rolling stripper club.

 

[mongo]

Video of truck that looks like the one the previous photo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNgSMhkoBk

 

[electracity]

Video of truck that looks like the one the previous photo.

Looks to me like just a semi with a sleeper frame size and no sleeper extension.

The hitch height and the driver seating height of the prospective Tesla semi is lower than a standard semi.

 

[mongo]

Looks to me like just a semi with a sleeper frame size and no sleeper extension.

The hitch height and the driver seating height of the prospective Tesla semi is lower than a standard semi.

Sure, not the final version. But from a mule/ alpha/ test unit, starting from an existing frame/ cab and converting to electric drive train/ axles seems like a reasonable first step. The large box could be the battery or weights for testing.

 

[Reciprocity]

Sure, not the final version. But from a mule/ alpha/ test unit, starting from an existing frame/ cab and converting to electric drive train/ axles seems like a reasonable first step. The large box could be the battery or weights for testing.

Exactly, the interesting thing is that it appears to be nearly silent, except for the air brake sound at the beginning. It looks nothing like the other photos, but I would agree that many test mules could be in use to verify a ton of the sub systems like battery, motors, integration with software controls and parts shared with existing semis like air brakes. It only makes sense that they would have several test mules.

 

[mongo]

Exactly, the interesting thing is that it appears to be nearly silent, except for the air brake sound at the beginning. It looks nothing like the other photos, but I would agree that many test mules could be in use to verify a ton of the sub systems like battery, motors, integration with software controls and parts shared with existing semis like air brakes. It only makes sense that they would have several test mules.

I agree in that the noise is interesting, has anyone ever heard the sound of semi-tires without a diesel drowning them out?

I disagree in that it does look like this photo:

 

[Reciprocity]

I agree in that the noise is interesting, has anyone ever heard the sound of semi-tires without a diesel drowning them out?

I disagree in that it does look like this photo:
View attachment 253078

Ok Zapruder, I was assuming the OP meant the one that looks like a Tesla...haha. Call me a Semi-ist, but they all look alike to me.

I wonder if that big bundle behind the cab could be a weight to simulate a range extending power pack just behind the cab?

 

[McRat]

IMO - Tesla Motors should have started with a motorhome chassis as the next step. Motorhomes have a shorter life, uptime is not as critical, financials of a MH are not focused on managerial accounting. And the ATP is potentially higher per unit.
Sitting in a MH for a 2 hr charge with TV, refrigerator, other people, bed, sofa, shower, is not a bad experience, and it costs much less than having a Class 8 hauler experience 2 hr of downtime.

An Eco-friendly MH probably has a wider buyer pool than eco-focused trucking companies. $750k for an MH is not usual. $750k for a Class 8 tractor is, where a $250k buys a nice rig.

And perhaps the biggest issue? MH's have a reputation for poor reliability. Class 8's do not. It's not as hard to beat everything in the MH market in reliability, but would be a struggle to beat the Class 8's.

 

[mongo]

Ok Zapruder, I was assuming the OP meant the one that looks like a Tesla...haha. Call me a Semi-ist, but they all look alike to me.

I wonder if that big bundle behind the cab could be a weight to simulate a range extending power pack just behind the cab?

They probably did, but I meant the other one .

Tesla may have needed a bunch of weight in development to get traction (wouldn't want to start with a trailer). Ever see a pickup without a bed try to accelerate? Hop, hop, hop, hoppity, hop.... Plus need a load for braking tests. Anyone want to calculate volume and weight?

I do like the idea of fixed and removable storage. Fork lift or autoloader to swap, if needed. Hard on connectors though (solvable, I'm sure).

 

[Reciprocity]

IMO - Tesla Motors should have started with a motorhome chassis as the next step. Motorhomes have a shorter life, uptime is not as critical, financials of a MH are not focused on managerial accounting. And the ATP is potentially higher per unit.
Sitting in a MH for a 2 hr charge with TV, refrigerator, other people, bed, sofa, shower, is not a bad experience, and it costs much less than having a Class 8 hauler experience 2 hr of downtime.

An Eco-friendly MH probably has a wider buyer pool than eco-focused trucking companies. $750k for an MH is not usual. $750k for a Class 8 tractor is, where a $250k buys a nice rig.

And perhaps the biggest issue? MH's have a reputation for poor reliability. Class 8's do not. It's not as hard to beat everything in the MH market in reliability, but would be a struggle to beat the Class 8's.

I think the reason for the Class 8 semi is the total fuel consumed today. The average semi drives 125k miles a year at 6mpg. It terms of saving the environment and moving people from fossil fuels to renewable electricity. Each semi is equivalent to about 34 model 3s so 100,000 semis would be equivalent to 3.4 million model 3s on the road. If they can fuel those Semis mostly with Solar the benefits are even greater.

 

[bxr140]

IMO - Tesla Motors should have started with a motorhome chassis as the next step.

Doesn't make sense. The volume is much lower and the market is discretionary so the margin needs to be quite high. Combine that with no charging infrastructure and the legacy competition in the luxury motorcoach market and it's a losing proposition for sure.

 

[jhm]

I think the reason for the Class 8 semi is the total fuel consumed today. The average semi drives 125k miles a year at 6mpg. It terms of saving the environment and moving people from fossil fuels to renewable electricity. Each semi is equivalent to about 34 model 3s so 100,000 semis would be equivalent to 3.4 million model 3s on the road. If they can fuel those Semis mostly with Solar the benefits are even greater.

Yup, there is an increasing cadence of articles coming out that raise questions about the grid being able to handle all the demand from EVs. This often has an implied idea that somehow this will drive up the cost of electricity for everyone, hand wringing about the social cost of EVs. The thing that I like to point out to people is that there is no assurance that the utilities will get the bulk of this demand growth. They are going to have to compete for it. It won't simply be handed to them (with the costs passed on to the rest of us). What those article generally miss is that there will be a lot of competition for the EV charging market. Selling Tesla Semis is just a fraction of the revenue stream. Powering them from solar and battery systems will be another huge revenue stream. Tesla Energy will compete with the utilities every step of the way. The utilities will need to be very entrepreneurial about this market, or they may be stuck with the least valuable 20% market share.

BTW, here are some numbers I get:
Semi: 125k miles / 6 mpg / 365 days / 42 gal/barrel = 1.3590 b/d diesel
Auto: 12k miles / 25 mpg / 365 days / 42 gal/ barrel = 0.0313 b/d gasoline
So the demand of 1 semi is comparable to about 43 autos (ignoring the difference between diesel and gasoline). One can play around with all sorts of numbers here. I'm not saying these are the best. The point is simply that semis have high mileage and low mpg compared to autos and both of these drive higher fuel demand per vehicle. It's a big ratio whatever specific number you put to it.

So Tesla Semi is headed straight to where the transportation energy demand is most concentrated. This is also where the batteries will get the best utilization.

 

[Reciprocity]

Selling Tesla Semis is just a fraction of the revenue stream. Powering them from solar and battery systems will be another huge revenue stream. Tesla Energy will compete with the utilities every step of the way. The utilities will need to be very entrepreneurial about this market, or they may be stuck with the least valuable 20% market share.

Bingo, I have been preaching this for a while in the Investor threads. I am sure that Tesla has done the math because it was easy even me and I am math challenged. Based on my non-scientific calcs, if Tesla did nothing but build large supercharger stations along the main freeways for Semis that included microgrids to power them, they would become the largest utility in the world with something like 50B a year in revenue for charging alone. In addition, the margins on that power would be very nice, on the order of 75% gross margins. Lastly, the customers would be somewhat captive because the charging solution is going to be something ridiculous like the patent that was recently published that showed a giant cable with built in cooling coming up from the ground automatically. Something that could charge 80% while a driver eats a meal. In fact, its mandatory that drivers stop for meal breaks, so you dont need a semi that can go 500 miles a day with no stopping.

 

[jhm]

I had to think about this a bit more. If we assume 0.6miles/kWh then

125k miles / 0.6 miles/kWh = 208.3 MWh per year per truck

571 kWh per day per truck

At a nominal cost of 12c/kWh for charging this is $25k per year per truck just for the energy. If you operated 10 trucks and wanted to charge at 600kW in the Georgia Power district that would cost that would cost you 144k per year in peak charges ($20/kW/month) plus $187.5k in energy charges (9c/kWh) for an annual cost of $33,150 per truck. This gives us a sense of the total opportunity. Truck operators are going to have to watch out for peak charges as well as energy rates from many utilities.

If you're in an area where average daily solar production is 4 kWh per kW PV, then 143kW of solar would produce enough energy for one truck. Suppose you build out 1200kW of solar. So at peak sunlight you can charge two trucks at 600kW each. With this system you go ahead and charge two at a time in the day and allow the utility to make up for any gap in power. So you manage your peak from the utility to be say under 60kW most months of the year. This saves you some $130k in peak demand charges. The solar also covers about 80% of the energy costs, about $150k. Altogether the solar charging system saves some $280k off of an otherwise $332k annual power bill, plus it gives you the ability to charge at 1200kW, not just 600kW, improving the logistics.

Now what would a solar system like that be worth over 25 years? About $3.8M for 1200kW assuming 6% financing, or $3.16/W. This is just for a 10 truck fleet, 1.2 MW. With bigger fleets we easily get to a scale where solar can be deployed under say $2/W without subsidy. Thus, there are opportunities for a fleet operator to cut charging cost by some 30% while adding capacity for fast charging. Additionally for those that act quickly, ITC can knock up to 30% off the solar system.

This example also shows how solar can cover 80% of the charging energy, while leaving the utility with the worst 20%. The utility winds up covering a need for backup power when solar is inadequate. So if the utilities don't step up their game, they could get stuck with the crappy end if the stock.

But from Tesla's perspective, imagine TE selling up to 120kW per Semi. At a notional $2/W, this is an upsell of $240k per base sale of truck. Depending on the uptake of solar, this could be significant revenue stream.

 

[McRat]

Doesn't make sense. The volume is much lower and the market is discretionary so the margin needs to be quite high. Combine that with no charging infrastructure and the legacy competition in the luxury motorcoach market and it's a losing proposition for sure.

Oddly enough, you have it backwards. RV's had national EV infrastructure before EVs did. The first modern EV pioneers used RV parks to recharge.

The volume is not controlled by the mfr. Volume is controlled by the buyers. There are far more RV's sold than EVs each year in the US. 430,000 last year. Why? The there are more buyers.

How many Class 8's trucks were sold last year? 250,000.

Tesla Model S cars sell well in the $75k-$140k sedan market. Is that a big market? No. Yet they are successful there.

This is the price range that Tesla goes up against in the Class 8 market:

2018 Peterbilt 579 Conventional - Sleeper Truck, Springfield VA - - CommercialTruckTrader.com

How much battery do you think you can buy with that little money?

 

[generalenthu]

Oddly enough, you have it backwards. RV's had national EV infrastructure before EVs did. The first modern EV pioneers used RV parks to recharge.

The volume is not controlled by the mfr. Volume is controlled by the buyers. There are far more RV's sold than EVs each year in the US. 430,000 last year. Why? The there are more buyers.

How many Class 8's trucks were sold last year? 250,000.

Tesla Model S cars sell well in the $75k-$140k sedan market. Is that a big market? No. Yet they are successful there.

This is the price range that Tesla goes up against in the Class 8 market:

2018 Peterbilt 579 Conventional - Sleeper Truck, Springfield VA - - CommercialTruckTrader.com

How much battery do you think you can buy with that little money?

455 hp? Isn't that less than what a P100DL can do?

 

[Reciprocity]

Oddly enough, you have it backwards. RV's had national EV infrastructure before EVs did. The first modern EV pioneers used RV parks to recharge.

The volume is not controlled by the mfr. Volume is controlled by the buyers. There are far more RV's sold than EVs each year in the US. 430,000 last year. Why? The there are more buyers.

How many Class 8's trucks were sold last year? 250,000.

Tesla Model S cars sell well in the $75k-$140k sedan market. Is that a big market? No. Yet they are successful there.

This is the price range that Tesla goes up against in the Class 8 market:

2018 Peterbilt 579 Conventional - Sleeper Truck, Springfield VA - - CommercialTruckTrader.com

How much battery do you think you can buy with that little money?

Yeah, the truck is cheap but the fuel and maintenance is like $60,000 per year vs less then half that for an assumed Tesla semi. Obviously we don't know enough to estimate, but the idea is that logistics and shipping companies will love them because they are much cheaper to operate and since these things are all financed anyway, the monthly TCO should be much lower for the Tesla semi.

There is also the idea that the Tesla semi will remove another major cost for semi operators that is around $110k/Year, which is the driver.