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The linked article seems to imply that developing the semi is partly because Tesla operates a number of trucks themselves, and they certainly rely on long-haul semis for delivery of vehicles. Personally, I am very skeptical of Tesla developing a semi. But since they are doing that, would it not make sense to first build a test fleet and use it themselves, for vehicle deliveries and so on? Controlling the real-world use of the first 100 or so vehicles would be incredibly useful for the design team, and for publicity as well.
As for the idea of a semi itself, I think this is an application where the vehicle design is so specialized, and so heavily oriented towards extraordinarily heavy duty and long-term reliability, that it is simply not a market that Tesla can readily penetrate. I question their likelihood of success. But, if they partner with an existing truck vendor, Tesla could focus on the drive train, battery, charging, and controls, which are really their specialty.
If I were a truck buyer, i would never consider buying a truck, vital for my business and my profitability, from a company whose knowledge of trucks is minimal and whose supply chain issues are so well-known. If I have a truck and need a part, I need it today, not in six weeks. Partner with someone that I already trust for the basic truck itself (Mack, Volvo, any of the other big truck manufacturers) and for having service facilities and a solid supply chain, and then I might be wiling to try a new drive train.
Only in circumstances where it's a single driver. I expect them to offer multiple configurations specifically for that purpose of solo and team drivers. Assuming they have a 1MWh and 2Mwh offering that should cover a majority of the driving situations. Also only a very small amount of trucks are considered OTR 10-15%
Reciprocity
Active Member
I didnt realize that people where actually allowed to drive 11 hours in a day, I assumed it was 8 hours like most people are for full time. I guess some drivers get paid by the load so I guess it makes sense they could drive more hours, but it never crossed my mind. I assumed it was 8 hours for safety reasons as well, but apparently its 11 hours? That changes my theory on min battery size a bit. Before I was assuming 600KWh would be more then enough at 1m/KWh. Based on some of the recent announcements from Fuso/Daimler and BYD, I think 1m/KWh is totally attainable. Now if you assume a hypercharger that pumps in coolant (750+KW or 1.25c of child's play would do it) , like the one patented by Tesla. If they can charge from 10% to 80% in an hour, then that's perfect amount of time for a meal break and 12 hours of total time including an hour for meals. Range charge while the truck is being loaded, drive to 10% and charge to 80% while on a 1 hour meal break. Then rinse and repeat the next day but range charge while sleeping. Total KWh consumed of 540+420 = 960 miles of rated range, which allows plenty of slack for battery degradation and bad whether for 11 hours of driving (11*65 = 715).
Not even close. There is so much that goes into OTR driving that it's just not that simple. For property carrying drivers they can work 14 hours after 10 hours off. Only 11 of those hours can be driving and you can't go more than 8 hours without a 30 minute break. The problem with all of these hours of service requirements is that there is no room for all of these trucks and people aren't machines, you can't just force them to stop and sleep. Go look at any truck stop or rest stop and you'll see that all of these places are overfilled all at the same time. now you want trucks to be able to rotate in/out of charging stalls? I don't know many drivers that stop for meals, most drive straight through their drive time and stop.
Driving logs are electronic and going over brings fines et.al. If a driver needs to stop they already can't find room in some places, now you're asking them to find a place to stop within 10 minutes to charge and sleep simply because the Gov says they need to, when already OTR drivers are having trouble finding a place simply to rest. Ask any driver and they'll tell you how much crap the HOS requirements are, I've written research papers on it, it's crap. The Electric semi is great for local and some regional routes but we are very, very far away from electric semis making it into the OTR scene.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Well to be fair, this is Tesla. The rig will guide them at the right speed and path to get them a spot to charge when they need to charge. I guess it depends on who the boss is. If the driver is the boss, he will want to optimize his time and money they can make in that time. If they are paying for the fuel as part of their service, then they will make some adjustments the same way I make adjustments with my Tesla. If its a company, the driver will do what the company says, or he can go drive an ICE semi for another company. Companies are looking for a large savings in Fuel and maintenance, or none of this works. Drivers will adapt and Tesla would have to build out a crazy charging infrastructure to support all of it. But you know what.. Tesla can. To say the EV semi has to perfectly mimic the ICE semi is not smart, companies and independents will adjust for the massive savings and in the end, they will be required to just to be competitive.
My question is not will the drivers adjust, but can Tesla build a Semi with 600 miles of range with a 600KWh pack and can they build the charging network fast enough, because no one will buy the semi without the network in place. They could work with select carriers that run static routes and build up overtime with more and more carriers until its just a matter of building out more capacity on the busiest lines.
I believe charging will be a significant profit center for Tesla, even as they save carriers tons of money on fuel.
I just can't see Tesla doing a OTR semi this decade. They may announce something, but not actually build that kind of truck. No owner-operator or company is going to buy that sort of truck without charging infrastructure in place.
Building semis that charge within a company owned infrastructure is so much simpler.
Wont happen any time soon in the next decade. Tesla nor the drivers make the decision, that's the good ol' government. If it's time to stop it's time to stop, the HOS don't care if you're near a charger, they don't care if the driver is wide awake. What you end up with in the OTR situation is you force a driver to stop because of HOS they waste all of their off time awake because they aren't tired and end up having to drive tired. Until charging infrastructure is as prevalent as truck stops and chargers are pushing 500kw+ you won't see OTR moving to electric.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Honestly I have no idea what HOS or OTR are, but Tesla is not building semis for giggles, they will build what ever it takes to make the product successful, including a network of high speed chargers. For a couple of reasons really, but most importantly because the Semi does not work as a product without an extensive network of superchargers. We have seen a patent for a charger where the cable is so thick that a person cannot lift it, and instead comes up from under ground and pumps coolant to both keep the cable cool but to also cool the battery while its being charged. We havent a single clue as to what kinds of charge rates, but a huge battery plus a simple 1.5-2c calculation would mean that charging could be reasonably fast. If you think that owners and operators wont take a longer meal break to save $50k a year in fuel and maintenance, then you are out of your damn mind. The idea that a driver wont follow a planned path that will make sure they have sufficient charging and break time, or be fired, is silly. No one is saying Tesla will tell them when to stop, only let them know the path they need to take to optimize charging on a long haul.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
OTR - Over The Road. Long haul. From this link, looks like it more specifically means out on the road for days or weeks at a time, followed by being home for some period before going back out again.
First Year as a Truck Driver | AllTrucking.com
HOS - Hours of Service:
Summary of Hours of Service Regulations
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Hours of Service (HOS) regulations are issued by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) and govern the working hours of anyone operating a commercial motor vehicle (CMV) in the United States.OTR - Over The Road. Long haul.
Not sure about HOS
HOS- Hours of Service. These are the federal laws that state when a person can drive or not. enforcement does not play around with this and no driver is losing their job over it. And no company is risking an audit/ investigation
OTR - Over The Road. This is another name for long haul trucking where drivers cover thousands of miles and do not have a daily base of operations.
Drivers will have a say on what goes on. Trucking is a severely understaffed position and has been since I've been around the industry, you start inconveniencing drivers more and more you'll see an exodus from the industry.
Deadlines are already tight and when someone needs something they won't wait for it they will pay for it. Adding dozens of hours to a transit time during OTR shipping doesn't always work and with an industry built around tight schedules, especially in the LTL world it doesn't always matter. I regularly have material sent from NY to South Texas. Diesel guarantees I'll have my truck, EV means that I'll have to wait for a truck to charge if a driver goes over their HOS and can't stop at a place to charge. All the E-semis are built for local routes in which they will work; charging happens daily at a home base and HOS is much less restrictive for drivers operating out of a single location. As long as HOS problems persist long haul trucking will never make it even if a charging infrastructure gets in place in the next decade.
Some prior posts have suggested that HOS and other regulations are cast in stone, never to be violated....let alone altered.
Neither is true.
In Alaska, for example, there is formal - not informal-we'll-look-the-other-way - agreement to permit HOS exceptions amongst the long-haul trucking along the Dalton Highway between the Prudhoe Bay oilfields and the southern terminus at Fairbanks (okay, specifically: to the DOT check station at Fox, just north of town).
Feds and State long ago realized there was far more danger to drivers, to the road, to the environment and to other traffic if, for example, a driver caught in a white-out for six hours, and it were another three hours to the way-station at Coldfoot, bringing hours to 13...then it was appropriate to permit that. Or a convoy had to keep moving else all trucks would die, figuratively speaking.
My point for the lesser-48 is that there is precedent for altering the letter of HOS, etc., without violating the spirit. So to the extent a hitherto extrinsic variable like autonomous driving enters into real-life equations, appropriate changes to commercial trucker regulations also may occur.
Neither is true.
In Alaska, for example, there is formal - not informal-we'll-look-the-other-way - agreement to permit HOS exceptions amongst the long-haul trucking along the Dalton Highway between the Prudhoe Bay oilfields and the southern terminus at Fairbanks (okay, specifically: to the DOT check station at Fox, just north of town).
Feds and State long ago realized there was far more danger to drivers, to the road, to the environment and to other traffic if, for example, a driver caught in a white-out for six hours, and it were another three hours to the way-station at Coldfoot, bringing hours to 13...then it was appropriate to permit that. Or a convoy had to keep moving else all trucks would die, figuratively speaking.
My point for the lesser-48 is that there is precedent for altering the letter of HOS, etc., without violating the spirit. So to the extent a hitherto extrinsic variable like autonomous driving enters into real-life equations, appropriate changes to commercial trucker regulations also may occur.
dc_h
Active Member
But the route can be automated, based on requirements. Code already there for Tesla, just adapted for commercial rules.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Lot of concern trolling in this thread at the moment. People didn't use to land rockets either.
Landing rockets is just a bunch of math. Selling an electric truck like any other EV requires getting people to change their idea of driving.
Companies would still pay spacex to launch satellites, they could care less what happens to the booster as long as the payload makes it.
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