Tesla Semi

[DurandalAI]

Landing rockets is just a bunch of math. Selling an electric truck like any other EV requires getting people to change their idea of driving.

Companies would still pay spacex to launch satellites, they could care less what happens to the booster as long as the payload makes it.

Requires little change in the idea of driving. For trucking it’s ROI. You show these people the numbers, and when it turns out you can cut your total costs by 1/3, then the truck is sold. These are businesses, out to make money, and a great way to make money is by cutting costs. Not a difficult concept. It’s the same reason they put the scoops at the top of the rig and the skirts on the sides of the trailers, it saves on fuel. Miniscule percentages but they add up to pay for these devices and more.

 

[LCR1]

They said the same thing about switching to automatics; it'd be easier on the drivers, more efficient, etc. I talk to the director of transportation at a 50B company and it's becoming a nightmare. They hunt for gears, give jerky shifts, and what not as well as much more complex to maintain and repair, cost more upfront and have a lower resale value. When I need something I don't care how much it costs, I need it. I've flown parts by helo to the middle of the gulf because I needed the part there sooner rather than cheaper. Had a tool set overnighted across Texas last Friday because I needed it sooner rather than cheaper ground transport. ROI isn't always about pennies in fuel, if the customer runs a JTI supply chain they can't wait the time for recharging trucks and they'll choose a different carrier that can meet their timeline. ROI means nothing to a customer if they dont have product, ROI means nothing to a trucking company if their trucks are empty. EVs will not have any impact on OTR logistics anytime soon.

 

[David29]

As much as I admire Tesla for tackling the semi as an engineering problem, I would prefer that they focus on perfecting the Model S, X, and 3, solving the manufacturing issues with model 3, and then move incrementally to small SUVs, maybe a pickup truck. I fear they are spreading their resources too thin, and run the risk of doing slap-dash work on drastically different new concepts that won't really pan out.

 

[DurandalAI]

They said the same thing about switching to automatics; it'd be easier on the drivers, more efficient, etc. I talk to the director of transportation at a 50B company and it's becoming a nightmare. They hunt for gears, give jerky shifts, and what not as well as much more complex to maintain and repair, cost more upfront and have a lower resale value. When I need something I don't care how much it costs, I need it. I've flown parts by helo to the middle of the gulf because I needed the part there sooner rather than cheaper. Had a tool set overnighted across Texas last Friday because I needed it sooner rather than cheaper ground transport. ROI isn't always about pennies in fuel, if the customer runs a JTI supply chain they can't wait the time for recharging trucks and they'll choose a different carrier that can meet their timeline. ROI means nothing to a customer if they dont have product, ROI means nothing to a trucking company if their trucks are empty. EVs will not have any impact on OTR logistics anytime soon.

I’m not talking a few % saved, we are talking about a 30% savings in fuel cost. Fuel is one of the biggest costs in trucking. Thanks for addressing the hot shot and outlier situations, for those who need their stuff now, they won’t ship it via train or EV trucking, it will be sent via your hot shot carrier over truck or flown as the case may be. For those companies who run their own freight between their stores and DCs, such as Walmart or others with regular pre-established routes, the choice will be clear to move to BEV trucks. Tesla doesn’t need to address the hot shot trucking lines or the owner operators for now. Just as there is a market for rail freight, there is a market for truck freight that may be a day slower than otherwise.

 

[LCR1]

I’m not talking a few % saved, we are talking about a 30% savings in fuel cost. Fuel is one of the biggest costs in trucking. Thanks for addressing the hot shot and outlier situations, for those who need their stuff now, they won’t ship it via train or EV trucking, it will be sent via your hot shot carrier over truck or flown as the case may be. For those companies who run their own freight between their stores and DCs, such as Walmart or others with regular pre-established routes, the choice will be clear to move to BEV trucks. Tesla doesn’t need to address the hot shot trucking lines or the owner operators for now. Just as there is a market for rail freight, there is a market for truck freight that may be a day slower than otherwise.

Organic shipping and DC delivery are not OTR.

 

[DurandalAI]

Organic shipping and DC delivery are not OTR.

You’re not even addressing my points, you’re just throwing out red herrings. You shall waste no more of my time.

 

[LCR1]

You’re not even addressing my points, you’re just throwing out red herrings. You shall waste no more of my time.

You're not reading my posts fully, you're wasting your own time.

 

[dhanson865]

EVs will not have any impact on OTR logistics anytime soon.

Decent point but OTR isn't all of trucking. So what percent is OTR?

I haven't found a solid answer but here are some stats I found while looking:

* There are about 5 million commercial trucks on the roadways of America, with approximately 2 million semi-trucks. (what percent of class 8 semis do OTR only? Still millions of trucks that aren't class 8 doing OTR)
* There are approximately 400,000 commercial trucking companies in the United States
* The average small business semi truck driver can cover over 125,000 miles per year. That works out to more than 240 nights away from home out of the 365 days of the year. (Looks like 500 miles a day is an average but I guess some days are longer than that)
* As of May 2015, over 90.0% of players in the United States long-distance freight trucking industry are owner-operators. Therefore, even the top corporate operators only hold a small share of the total market.

 

[dhanson865]

Organic shipping and DC delivery are not OTR.

again, what percentage of trucking is long range OTR? Why do you think no other trucking exists or is worth talking about?

 

[LCR1]

again, what percentage of trucking is long range OTR? Why do you think no other trucking exists or is worth talking about?

OTR Trucks by volume are 10-15% OTR moves 50% of commercial freight by value and 20% of commercial freight by tonnage.

Only in circumstances where it's a single driver. I expect them to offer multiple configurations specifically for that purpose of solo and team drivers. Assuming they have a 1MWh and 2Mwh offering that should cover a majority of the driving situations. Also only a very small amount of trucks are considered OTR 10-15%

I do think other trucking exists

.....The Electric semi is great for local and some regional routes but we are very, very far away from electric semis making it into the OTR scene.

 

[Off Shore]

You're not reading my posts fully, you're wasting your own time.

{snarky GIF}

@LCR1 I'm here to learn, and you've already taught me more than I need to know about you. !Adios & Rubber Side Down!

 

[LCR1]

@LCR1 I'm here to learn, and you've already taught me more than I need to know about you. !Adios & Rubber Side Down!

CSB

 

[DurandalAI]

Decent point but OTR isn't all of trucking. So what percent is OTR?

I haven't found a solid answer but here are some stats I found while looking:

* There are about 5 million commercial trucks on the roadways of America, with approximately 2 million semi-trucks. (what percent of class 8 semis do OTR only? Still millions of trucks that aren't class 8 doing OTR)
* There are approximately 400,000 commercial trucking companies in the United States
* The average small business semi truck driver can cover over 125,000 miles per year. That works out to more than 240 nights away from home out of the 365 days of the year. (Looks like 500 miles a day is an average but I guess some days are longer than that)
* As of May 2015, over 90.0% of players in the United States long-distance freight trucking industry are owner-operators. Therefore, even the top corporate operators only hold a small share of the total market.

Thanks for adding value to the discussion with that information.

 

[D-egg-O]

They said the same thing about switching to automatics; it'd be easier on the drivers, more efficient, etc. I talk to the director of transportation at a 50B company and it's becoming a nightmare. They hunt for gears, give jerky shifts, and what not as well as much more complex to maintain and repair, cost more upfront and have a lower resale value. When I need something I don't care how much it costs, I need it. I've flown parts by helo to the middle of the gulf because I needed the part there sooner rather than cheaper. Had a tool set overnighted across Texas last Friday because I needed it sooner rather than cheaper ground transport. ROI isn't always about pennies in fuel, if the customer runs a JTI supply chain they can't wait the time for recharging trucks and they'll choose a different carrier that can meet their timeline. ROI means nothing to a customer if they dont have product, ROI means nothing to a trucking company if their trucks are empty. EVs will not have any impact on OTR logistics anytime soon.

Sounds like you're in a vocational application where you value uptime quite a bit. My guess is maybe oil & gas. You want your trucks running as much as possible to extract that resource. Hence your willingness to fly in parts to complete repairs. I guarantee you the Tesla semi is not intended for vocational use. It will be for line haul fleets where the highest operating cost is fuel. Uptime is valuable, but not valuable enough to fly in a new transmission. If you hate the automated transmissions, I'll you'll be surprised on the capabilities of an all electric powertrain.

 

[Todd Burch]

The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that the truck will be this:

1. Battery range of about 400-500 miles real-world, BUT

2. They will have battery swap stations across the country on interstates. They will take what they learned from Model S battery swapping and set it up so you drive the truck about 400-500 miles, pull into a swap station (like a weigh station), and without getting out of your truck you get a newly-charged battery in 2 minutes. Battery will be under the trailer with a smaller battery on the cab (which is permanent). That pack will be connected to the trailer pack and will recharge from it as needed (but also allows driving around without the trailer).

Battery pack will either be leased from Tesla, owned by the trucking company, or owned by Tesla and the trucking company merely pays for the charge.

Battery swap didn't make enough sense to enough people to use it on their personal cars, but it makes a lot more sense to do in trucking.

As a result, Tesla semi will get you across the country in LESS time than an ICE semi, as a battery swap will be far faster than refueling.

That's how I'm betting this will all work.

 

[LCR1]

Can't have one on a trailer as trailer almost never stays with a truck. You'd have to swap out not only a fleet of trucks which eventually age but now trailers which last much longer. Then when you have a ice semi hauling a EV trailer you have a needless weight penalty. That simply won't happen in the next generation. Trailer will remain independent of truck like they always have.

For cross country trips refueling time is irrelevant. You can only drive X amount of hours per day 10-11 right now for the majority of drivers. A truck will carry at least 150 gallons of fuel which is good for an entire days driving in all but the most extreme circumstances. you'll only fill up when you take the mandatory break or are out of drive time for the day therefore EV carrys no benefit in time. Also a diesel pump at a truck stop will do about 15-25 gallons a minute and there are 2 of them per truck. I love filling up my pickup with them.

Weight and sports car handling is irrelevant for a class 6+ truck. I suspect that the majority of batteries will sit at the front of the truck and under the cab to improve steer axle weight which leaves more weight for drive and trailer axles.

Under this configuration the battery would come out of the front of the truck in a block format and connected in parallel. This avoids the need for pits to drop the battery into and allows it to simply slide out. Imagine opening a door in the front and the pack(s) are just mounted inside the frame rails. By making it modular you can configure weight distribution which is huge in commercial vehicles.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

For trucks it looks like many wants to explore the data trucking generates,

“Vehicles are now going to be endpoints in a connected environment,” Asel said. “They are going to have myriad real-time data coming out of them. And that has enormous implications for thinking about not just navigation efficiency, but mapping that data back to smart cities and smart governments to drive better decisions about services, resources and the environment.”

https://www.trucks.com/2017/11/08/nokia-sees-trucking-industry-leader-economic-revolution/

 

[electracity]

They will have battery swap stations across the country on interstates.

When would these swap stations be built?

 

[Reciprocity]

When would these swap stations be built?

A battery swap station sounds super complicated,but it really could be simple. I still dont think their will be a batter swap station. I still dont see an issue with spending an hour per 11 hour day charging. If the load most go 24x7 then it would be simpler to swap the truck as the driver would have to change anyway. Logistically, things will need to change if companies and/or independents want to reap the savings. If they just cant change, then they can drive expensive diesel semi.

 

[Todd Burch]

When would these swap stations be built?

You don't need that many. One every 400-500ish miles. So less than 1/4 the density of supercharger locations to cover the country.

What's more is you can get away with one swap station per location initially since a swap would only take a minute or two.

And the semi is probably 2 years away from production. Plenty of time to build them.