Tesla Semi

[GoTslaGo]

Now if I was a Walmart truck buyer...I might have my big base warehouse roof outfitted with solar, and build a maga charger near the loading dock. Dont need to look for a station along the route, just come home. I would buy just a few trucks to operate out of that one warehouse, and not go cpmpany wide immediatly. So the EV trucks start as a small percentage of the fleet, and slowly ramp up in percentage. My big initial investment is in the base camp - solar facilities, and just partially in the truck.
If I was Tesla ---and I'm making promises to forward thinking investors at a party - I might be elaborate in my claims. But come contract time - I'd be very careful as to what I put in writing. As implied, if you promise a big delivery, and your customer relies on that by adjusting his fleet, and you completely fail...so, dont over promise in the contract, but talk to your customer in reality terms.

Gee, whatya know.... Walmart had been working with Solarcity for a while now, setting up solar on it’s many rooftops:

How Walmart Became A Green Energy Giant, Using Other People's Money

Next step batteries and then mega/super chargers? When the majority of drivers are using EVs... might Walmart become the next “Exxon”— go there to buy your stuff, and charge up your car! They’ll just add your EV fill up charge onto your check out bill. Wonder which will be more expensive, groceries or the EV fill up?

 

[Off Shore]

Hi, I'm new here. Everything about Tesla is wonderful, except for these three or four irreparable and fatal flaws. What do you all think?

 

[LCR1]

Americans don't know F class from a hole in the ground. I had to google it to see where in the scale it was. I knew before I googled it that it was a European term. Car classification - Wikipedia

Euro Car Segment - Wikipedia

The EPA doesn't have a class that corresponds to the F segment and American marketing is vague for cars that size because there is no legal classification that they have to keep to.

I'd say people bought Tesla because it is a good EV. I and many others will be happy when the Model 3 is coming out in large quantities and I'd even be willing to drive a car smaller than the Model 3.

If you aren't in Houston you might want to change your location in your profile to warn people you are speaking from a Euro mindset and terminology.

I listed my location as Houston because I live in Houston. The EPA doesn't run the car classification for sales, they classify cars for EPA regulations and people extrapolate from there. Even Tesla uses the European classification and so does every unknowing person who says Tesla "dominates sales in their class" et al. Tesla purposefully built a car in this segment for many reasons including; it's luxury so they command a higher price, it's the largest platform in the lux class so it allows higher MSRP within the already expensive class and gives them the most room for the batteries.

Tesla is missing a multitude of features you'd expect in this class such as standard parking sensors, 360* cameras, folding mirrors, adaptive cruise, etc. MB brought adaptive cruise to the segment in 1999, 13 years before the Model S was even produced and they couldn't provide it from day one? Hell, Toyota had automatic parking in like 2002. So to say the Tesla competes in the class is inflated, yes they have some of these things now but people weren't running out to trade in their 7 series for a Tesla in 2013 for the luxury, hell my nissan leaf had 360 cameras back in 2013

Again Tesla chose to compete in this class; they knew they would sell more cars this way, they needed the size, and they could command a higher price. The vast majority of people who buy Tesla would have never looked at a BMW 7series or Audi A8, They are simply two different buyers. I would never, ever consider a even looking at a 7series I don't want one, but I bought a Tesla and that automatically puts me and others into competition with the 7Series. How many of these sales are actually individuals either? How many of these large luxury cars are actually chauffeur services and companies for executives? So yes, Tesla is dominating the market but not because people are fleeing MB and Jaguar but because Tesla entered a market with zero competition on purpose, You can't brag about dominating sales in the American Large Car segment when you'd have to compete with the Honda Civic, Ford Taurus, or even the Hyundai Sonata a car that has more sales in a year than Teslas entire history.

 

[Lessmog]

I listed my location as Houston because I live in Houston. The EPA doesn't run the car classification for sales, they classify cars for EPA regulations and people extrapolate from there. Even Tesla uses the European classification and so does every unknowing person who says Tesla "dominates sales in their class" et al. Tesla purposefully built a car in this segment for many reasons including; it's luxury so they command a higher price, it's the largest platform in the lux class so it allows higher MSRP within the already expensive class and gives them the most room for the batteries.

Tesla is missing a multitude of features you'd expect in this class such as standard parking sensors, 360* cameras, folding mirrors, adaptive cruise, etc. MB brought adaptive cruise to the segment in 1999, 13 years before the Model S was even produced and they couldn't provide it from day one? Hell, Toyota had automatic parking in like 2002. So to say the Tesla competes in the class is inflated, yes they have some of these things now but people weren't running out to trade in their 7 series for a Tesla in 2013 for the luxury, hell my nissan leaf had 360 cameras back in 2013

Again Tesla chose to compete in this class; they knew they would sell more cars this way, they needed the size, and they could command a higher price. The vast majority of people who buy Tesla would have never looked at a BMW 7series or Audi A8, They are simply two different buyers. I would never, ever consider a even looking at a 7series I don't want one, but I bought a Tesla and that automatically puts me and others into competition with the 7Series. How many of these sales are actually individuals either? How many of these large luxury cars are actually chauffeur services and companies for executives? So yes, Tesla is dominating the market but not because people are fleeing MB and Jaguar but because Tesla entered a market with zero competition on purpose, You can't brag about dominating sales in the American Large Car segment when you'd have to compete with the Honda Civic, Ford Taurus, or even the Hyundai Sonata a car that has more sales in a year than Teslas entire history.

I think you forgot to complain about cup holders

I get lost in the discussion on classification. What I need is a safe car with sufficient range and reasonable maintenance economics. The old Saab no longer met those needs so I went mad and bought 8 times more expensive than ever before.

My Model S is 2½ years old. It has folding mirrors, adaptive cruise, parking sensors and autopark. The utility gives me a discount balancing my "fuel" cost for three years. How is yours doing?

In younger years my brother offered me an opportunity to upgrade my licence to heavy vehicles by letting me drive a used Scania he'd bought some 500 or 1000 km, which I declined. That was stupid of me, but ...

 

[Brando]

Tesla is missing a multitude of features you'd expect ... but people weren't running out to trade in their 7 series for a Tesla in 2013 for the luxury, hell my nissan leaf had 360 cameras back in 2013 ...
...entered a market with zero competition on purpose ... You can't brag about dominating sales in the American Large Car segment when you'd have to compete with the Honda Civic, Ford Taurus, or even the Hyundai Sonata a car that has more sales in a year than Teslas entire history.

You should read
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

Tesla doesn't market Model S as a luxury car but as a Sports Sedan.

Getting a grip on auto sales, try this - internet search will find many more sources.
EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database

You are correct. Model S (for sedans ~$100,000 range) only sells about 1 in 4 in US Market. [Way outside my pay scale.] That seems to be about 50,000 compared to a 200,000 per year market niche.
[ps- world auto production 80-100 million per year]
Considering they only build the safest, quickest, cheapest to operate and lack the other features you mention just shows how dumb these US buyers are or how strange they are.

I have 360 degree windows (almost) on my Saab. Is that as good as cameras?? Also, I haven't seen Tesla brag about dominating - perhaps I missed those ads.

 

[LCR1]

I think you forgot to complain about cup holders

Damit who puts a cup holder IN the arm rest?

I get lost in the discussion on classification. What I need is a safe car with sufficient range and reasonable maintenance economics. The old Saab no longer met those needs so I went mad and bought 8 times more expensive than ever before.

My Model S is 2½ years old. It has folding mirrors, adaptive cruise, parking sensors and autopark. The utility gives me a discount balancing my "fuel" cost for three years. How is yours doing?

In younger years my brother offered me an opportunity to upgrade my licence to heavy vehicles by letting me drive a used Scania he'd bought some 500 or 1000 km, which I declined. That was stupid of me, but ...

There were none of those features when it first came out and they weren't made standard until later on. It's not like the tech came out in 2012 and Tesla didn't have time to implement it in the design, they had all been out for a decade or more and were standard by then.

 

[LCR1]

You should read
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

Tesla doesn't market Model S as a luxury car but as a Sports Sedan.

Getting a grip on auto sales, try this - internet search will find many more sources.
EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database

You are correct. Model S (for sedans ~$100,000 range) only sells about 1 in 4 in US Market. [Way outside my pay scale.] That seems to be about 50,000 compared to a 200,000 per year market niche.
[ps- world auto production 80-100 million per year]
Considering they only build the safest, quickest, cheapest to operate and lack the other features you mention just shows how dumb these US buyers are or how strange they are.

I have 360 degree windows (almost) on my Saab. Is that as good as cameras?? Also, I haven't seen Tesla brag about dominating - perhaps I missed those ads.

Tesla doesn't market at all if you think about it. And I know what the auto sales numbers are and tesla is no where near dominating anything, all the fan bois like to make it that way because of where Tesla just happens to compete in one of smallest segments, there's news stories about it all over the place.

I wouldn't call wanting a map pocket or a 360 camera making someone dumb or strange. Can I still parallel park with out the 360 camera? of course I can, I can park my F350 where a civic driver in Houston wouldn't try, but the 360 certainly makes it faster than mirrors and windows.

 

[Lessmog]

Damit who puts a cup holder IN the arm rest?

Ah. Thank you. Yes, it is annoying, a little. There is also a slight rattle in my doors, quite audible in such a quiet car. But there's always Spotify to drown out the noise.

There were none of those features when it first came out and they weren't made standard until later on. It's not like the tech came out in 2012 and Tesla didn't have time to implement it in the design, they had all been out for a decade or more and were standard by then.

So, I take it yours is a 2012 then? I almost got a RWD 2014 without AP and in a discontinued color. I'll never live that down. Boohoo.

Edit: Oh so you have a Tesla F350? Hadn't heard about those. Yet.

 

[Brando]

There were none of those features when it first came out and they weren't made standard until later on. It's not like the Tech came out in 2012 and Tesla didn't have time to implement it in the design, they had all been out for a decade or more and we standard by now.

Did you know that Tesla updates the software? Part of that "Continuous Improvement" thing. So many of the older Teslas are just like the new ones - as far as software controlled things are concerned. And it happens while you sleep - no servicing visit needed. How stupid is that? Missing yet another income stream. Small wonder Tesla is so small. They should make owners buy the updated model, not update the software for free. Yea, another income stream missed. How do they stay in business and continue to grow? - at I think about 50% year over year.

Oh, I forgot, Tesla has no model years. Seems they just add improvements continuously - and usually only tell people after they have made manufacturing changes. Yes, a few unlucky ones actually get improvements without knowing it. And others are upset caused they missed out and bought too soon in their opinion. Lesson to learn? Buy what you want, if it lacks the feature you want - cup holders, cameras, etc. - do NOT buy it.

PS- did you read the secret plan? Also when do you think the other automakers will wake up and take away Tesla EV market, now that Tesla seems to have developed/started this market? Perhaps 100,000 per year still too small. (side note this year Tesla may have built more cars than Ferrari total - if we counted the seats that would be 2 times more people boxes than Ferrari has built since 1940s. yet another useless factoid to be bragged about - but Ferrari probably wins in the total revenue game, don't you think?)
Interesting Times - no?

 

[Lessmog]

Did you know that Tesla updates the software? Part of that "Continuous Improvement" thing. So many of the older Teslas are just like the new ones - as far as software controlled things are concerned. And it happens while you sleep - no servicing visit needed. How stupid is that? Missing yet another income stream. Small wonder Tesla is so small. They should make owners buy the updated model, not update the software for free. Yea, another income stream missed. How do they stay in business and continue to grow? - at I think about 50% year over year.

Oh, I forgot, Tesla has no model years. Seems they just add improvements continuously - and usually only tell people after they have made manufacturing changes. Yes, a few unlucky ones actually get improvements without knowing it. And others are upset caused they missed out and bought too soon in their opinion. Lesson to learn? Buy what you want, if it lacks the feature you want - cup holders, cameras, etc. - do NOT buy it.

That's right, no model years! Mine got three-quarter seconds quicker to 100 kmh via an over-the-air update. Also how I got the auto pilot and Spotify, and auto-park, etc and so on. At no extra cost to me. Also have grandfathered unlimited free Supercharging for the car's life. (Wish they could make me an OTA paint job!)

 

[Brando]

That's right, no model years! Mine got three-quarter seconds quicker to 100 kmh via an over-the-air update. Also how I got the auto pilot and Spotify, and auto-park, etc and so on. At no extra cost to me. Also have grandfathered unlimited free Supercharging for the car's life. (Wish they could make me an OTA paint job!)

you got a free tune up? amazing - oh, and see how Tesla lost yet another income stream - how stupid is that - ask Cramer on that stock buying program of his. How can you build a company when you are constantly trying to help/improve your customer's product that they already paid for??

almost makes me wish I could afford one - electric bike is my probable upgrade path.

Next they'll be updating cell phones over-the-air and maybe even desktops/laptops. Interesting Times.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR -

Let's keep this discussion laser-focused on the Tesla Semi, please.
Or Lidar-, if that's your preference.

 

[LCR1]

Ah. Thank you. Yes, it is annoying, a little. There is also a slight rattle in my doors, quite audible in such a quiet car. But there's always Spotify to drown out the noise.

So, I take it yours is a 2012 then? I almost got a RWD 2014 without AP and in a discontinued color. I'll never live that down. Boohoo.

Edit: Oh so you have a Tesla F350? Hadn't heard about those. Yet.

2015. But the point was the tech was around in 2012 and 10 years before but they didn't use it. I also have Ford F250 and a Leaf.

To someone elses point about Tesla sales, they aren't even the best selling EV company that you'd belong to someone else.

The point remains Tesla is innovative sure, but their one size fits all mentality of the car can't cross over into the truck and they'll fail in their expectations if they do. Trucks are offered in a dozen cab configurations with three dozen driven train options because that's what the market requires. You buy a singe drive axle truck for short haul city loops because you need better maneuverability and less expense. The large cab and dual drives adds cost not everyone wants to incur. You can purchase a daycab single axle for 60-80K whereas tandem daycab will be north of 100K, throw a sleep on for another 25-30K. If Tesla only offers a dual axle for 150K and someone can get away with an 80K daycab single truck which do you think they will buy? How long will it take to recoup their costs if they had to spend an extra $70K? Does the company have the capital to afford the extra purchases? You all realize that 97% of the CMVs are owned by companies with less than 20 trucks? It's a great technology and step forward but it won't be the messiah and no one will buy it if they can't afford it or the numbers don't work.

 

[Lessmog]

2015. But the point was the tech was around in 2012 and 10 years before but they didn't use it. I also have Ford F250 and a Leaf.

To someone elses point about Tesla sales, they aren't even the best selling EV company that you'd belong to someone else.

The point remains Tesla is innovative sure, but their one size fits all mentality of the car can't cross over into the truck and they'll fail in their expectations if they do. Trucks are offered in a dozen cab configurations with three dozen driven train options because that's what the market requires. You buy a singe drive axle truck for short haul city loops because you need better maneuverability and less expense. The large cab and dual drives adds cost not everyone wants to incur. You can purchase a daycab single axle for 60-80K whereas tandem daycab will be north of 100K, throw a sleep on for another 25-30K. If Tesla only offers a dual axle for 150K and someone can get away with an 80K daycab single truck which do you think they will buy? How long will it take to recoup their costs if they had to spend an extra $70K? Does the company have the capital to afford the extra purchases? You all realize that 97% of the CMVs are owned by companies with less than 20 trucks? It's a great technology and step forward but it won't be the messiah and no one will buy it if they can't afford it or the numbers don't work.

Fine. Buy what you need, not what you don't want.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I thought there was a dozen or so styrofoam model on a wall- that showed potential combination using the Tesla semi skate. I saw nothing that said there was one, and only one, configurstion.

 

[jerry33]

The point remains Tesla is innovative sure, but their one size fits all mentality of the car can't cross over into the truck and they'll fail in their expectations if they do.

There is nothing that says they can't make other variations later. Starting out with one means that they have a smaller investment in body stamping equipment. They are only going to be able to produce a limited number at first anyway, so there's no benefit to starting out with a dozen configurations, and plenty of economic and technical reasons not to do so. It's not as if they are going to be able to saturate the market for even that one style.

Their first market is almost certainly going to be the big fleets that can afford to experiment with the early production runs--not independent truckers, who aren't going to buy until the truck charging stations are as common as Superchargers and have seen that Tesla semis actually work as advertised. Fleets belonging to a "brand", as opposed to general trucking fleets that don't specialize ought to be their first target. Often "brand" fleets have only a few configurations but many of each, so that shouldn't hinder sales. More importantly, they have fixed routes, so it's easier for Tesla to install charging stations at their depots. A large general trucking firm with a big contract for a fixed route could be another purchaser. I can recall Steve Jobs saying that if they got even one percent of the cellphone market, that would still be really big. This appears to be somewhat similar.

When radial truck tires were first introduced, there was a lot of resistance. The easiest sell was to logging and gravel trucks because with radial tires the driver didn't have to spend the evening fixing the day's flats. It took much longer for highway trucks to start using them and it started with fleets, although a few independents adopted them early on as well. Of course, a set of tires is a lot less expensive than a semi, so the risk factor for the independent is much lower, but still, truck tires aren't cheap.

So I don't see any issue with starting off with just one style and getting that one right before adding others.

 

[Crowded Mind]

From Tesla.com, expected base price of 500 mile range Semi is $180k. 300 mile range for $150k.

Semi | Tesla

Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet

Posted in general thread as well. This is an insanely low price...

 

[MP3Mike]

From Tesla.com, expected base price of 500 mile range Semi is $180k. 300 mile range for $150k.

Semi | Tesla

Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet

Posted in general thread as well. This is an insanely low price...

Interesting and they raised the reservation price to $20k for the base or $200k (full price) for the Founder's Series.

Interesting that the Founders Series is only $20k more. I wonder what options will be available...

 

[powertoold]

Only 180k for the 500 mile, ~1MW semi? Either Tesla has gone full mad or there are several breakthroughs here lol

 

[dhanson865]

Only 180k for the 500 mile, ~1MW semi? Either Tesla has gone full mad or there are several breakthroughs here lol

Assuming no other parts difference between the 300 mile and 500 mile version and that they have 800kWh and 1000kWh pack and cost $150,000 and $180,000 then you could say:

They get ~$150 per kWh for the pack upgrade ($30,000 price difference / ~200 kWh capacity difference).

That seems in line with Elon/JB's past statements on cost reductions (expected by late 2018 to mid 2019) + leaves room for profits. Doesn't seem worthy of the label full mad or breakthrough.

Just continual improvement and market penetration.