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I guess all I can say to this is that you need a new bank. They shouldn't be micromanaging whether you spend $120k or $180k on a truck.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
I'm confused...Some say that a trucking company has chump change laying around to buy a few of these for testing and PR purposes. Special cases of warehouse and distribution routes. Special cases of port-of-LA trolling trucks. The next talk is that small trucking firms with less than 20 trucks can just barely afford to buy/lease and have headaches about every niche of their business.
So- who is a Tesla Semi customer? Is this supposed to be a one-size-fits-all design? Is it a special case, custom design? Who?
So- who is a Tesla Semi customer? Is this supposed to be a one-size-fits-all design? Is it a special case, custom design? Who?
Perhaps Ikea will be interested in the Semi?
"In practice, it means that 355 Ikea stores on 30 different markets will switch entirely to electric car transportation and infrastructure."
Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla
"In practice, it means that 355 Ikea stores on 30 different markets will switch entirely to electric car transportation and infrastructure."
Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla
Owner Operators:
Owner operators represent a significant portion of semi buyers, at least in the U.S. An argument was made in this thread that Tesla Semi doesn't fit the needs of this group today, which IMO is a valid point.
But owner operators exists because it is an efficient and competitive business model today. The service they provide, delivery, is largely a commodity. If EV semi is less expensive the market will adjust to the new lower price point. Meeting the needs of the owner operator is not necessarily strategic. Meeting the need of the buyer of delivery services is what will drive the future form of the transportation market.
Figuring out how Tesla plans to build non-private megachargers profitably would reveal Tesla's long term strategy. Early Semi pricing by Tesla is a tactic serving a larger strategy. Tesla semi is not necessarily like cars where the good margins are a primary strategy.
Musk's drug of choice is the huge idea. The new roadster is a car. The new semi is an enabler of a service.
Owner operators represent a significant portion of semi buyers, at least in the U.S. An argument was made in this thread that Tesla Semi doesn't fit the needs of this group today, which IMO is a valid point.
But owner operators exists because it is an efficient and competitive business model today. The service they provide, delivery, is largely a commodity. If EV semi is less expensive the market will adjust to the new lower price point. Meeting the needs of the owner operator is not necessarily strategic. Meeting the need of the buyer of delivery services is what will drive the future form of the transportation market.
Figuring out how Tesla plans to build non-private megachargers profitably would reveal Tesla's long term strategy. Early Semi pricing by Tesla is a tactic serving a larger strategy. Tesla semi is not necessarily like cars where the good margins are a primary strategy.
Musk's drug of choice is the huge idea. The new roadster is a car. The new semi is an enabler of a service.
They don't micro manage how much I spend, they manage how much I can repay. If free cash flow is less than truck payment you don't get it. If you can't demonstrate that cash flow from 2-8 previous quarters, depending on the finance requested, meets finance requirements then you don't get the financing. A bank will tell you the same thing I have, operating costs are not reflected on a debt-income portfolio and therefore are not calculated in most types of loan processes. Even on the P&L and balance sheet it will show fuel expense as a liability. I send off $35 Million of company financials to the banks every quarter. If the truck sits I'm spending $0 on diesel and $0 on electricity for each truck but one is costing me $800 more every month. For these billion dollar companies and anyone else that has the capital that can afford the expense on their balance sheet they will definitely jump on board to test them. For everyone else they are stuck waiting on free cash flow and equity or for the used market to catch up. You can buy a used truck with 250-500K miles for 80K or less. That certainly buys a lost of diesel.
With tesla never getting anything done on time and the small scale they are working at as well as quality issues, this truck isn't turning the industry on it's head in the next 2 years, or 4 years. It's just like the model 3, It was supposed to be lighting the world on fire by now and it's little more than an ember in many peoples dreams, with body panels that don't line up.
brucet999
Active Member
Don't truck manufacturers offer financing, or do you use your bank to get lower interest rates? Tesla might have to lean on their bankers to offer loans to buyers at decent rates if most banks won't view TCO in approving loans.
SebastianR
Active Member
Look, a few things - you don't seem to be so enthusiastic about the Semi (or Tesla) but this is a site that is quite enthusiastic about these two topics; so I wonder what you are trying to accomplish? Ultimately, if you don't have the cargo (idle truck) and if you don't have the cash, the Tesla Semi is NOT for you. That's quite clear. If you compare a new Tesla Semi to a used Diesel truck and are disappointed about that comparison - I fear there is nowhere to go from here.
Now, on the other point you make: I don't believe Tesla alone will change the trucking industry. But Tesla will push, pull, bully, coerce and blackmail the rest of the industry to get serious about electric trucks. There are just too many use cases where an electric Semi makes tremendous sense. This is what will change the Semi industry quicker than the Model S / X changes the car industry: if the economics work out in favour of electric Semis, everyone will be forced to move this way. A BMW might have loyal fans that would buy inferior cars even if they don't make economic sense. Walmart only cares about getting cargo from A to B - they care about costs, not brands.
And in such a situation, folks like you may face some difficult decisions soon (not now, but soon): if the big boys can afford the upfront costs of an electric Semi and beat you out on bidding for cargo the industry is ripe for further consolidation.
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Good to see many @calstart fleet members @Tesla truck event last night - at least one indicated they'd put in an order for 100 e-semi-trucks. @trucksdotcom
CALSTART on Twitter
CALSTART on Twitter
Radial truck tires cost twice as much as bias-ply tires back in the day and there were just as many detractors, but the total cost of ownership was lower. Not many bias-ply truck tires around these days. However, the transition did take about 45 years (1946 when the first radial tires were marketed to around 1990 when the majority of vehicles had radial tires as standard).
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
I just listened to a podcast where a Canadian oil field hauler discussed the reasons he bought a Tesla Semi. He is going to modify it with moose bumper, remove the areodynamic flaps and install a headache rack. He hauls not 80,000 lbs down highways, but large cat tractors on flatbeds at 120,000 lbs. He does not care about the streamline as his open air loads dwarf the efficiency of the flaps. And he needs to pull off the wheel skirts to install snow/mud chains. He cares a lot about the low end torque as he drags 120,000 lb loads on steep lease roads. He bills his time at $/hr, and not $/mile. He hauls full one way and empty the other. At the end of each day, he returns to his shop. Overnight charging is fine - doe not need a megacharger. A big one, yes, but not Mega.
Probably not the test case for Elons design, but it really fit this application.
Probably not the test case for Elons design, but it really fit this application.
SmartElectric
Active Member
Some offer financing but commercial rates are much higher regardless, where you can finance a new model S for 1-2% you can only finance commercial vehicles for 3-7% usually it's 5%+ It's crazy, I buy a F450 pick up and finance through the bank for 1.49% I buy an F450 chassis cab the banks would only offer 4.5 or 5.5% (can't remember) same damn truck but one is sold as a personal auto the other is sold as commercial auto. Same problem with capital loans. I can get a personal loan at 4-6% but the business loans are at 6-9% with good credit and cash flow for both. The first $3.5Million loan was at 7.5% and refinanced after 2 years at 6.5% but before that loans were 8-12% If you can get a 504 loan to start out with those are great because interest rates are capped below 5%
It really is crappy that TCO doesn't count, with certain government loans you can use past performance and realistic future expectations can be considered in the formula, FSA farm loans do this. Think of how frustrating it was talking to the banks about solar I have a $250/mth electric bill If I financed the install out over 20 years at like 6.5% it would have been like $150-200/mth or something. "Sorry with your house you just bought and your car, your debt to income ratio it to high" give them $250 electric bills and the specs of what the system will produce nominally covering 100% of my electric "Mr. it doesn't matter, your debt to income and cash flow are too low" Try to explain that I can either pay $250 for electricity or $200 for solar panels and I'll actually profit 50-$100 "sir, it doesn't matter your debt to income and cash flow requirements aren't met." And these were banks like Home Loan Investment Bank that specializes in solar loans.
I'm very enthusiastic about the semi but I'm more grounded about what it can actually do and accomplish. I have a degree in logistics, have run multiple commercial fleets and run my own. Unless you understand how the american trucking industry actually works all anyone around here seems to understand is what Tesla feeds them. Look at 2016 where the trucking industry in the Gulf collapsed with oil. Many small companies went under because all of a sudden the cargo was gone and there were no loads to pay the truck notes and overhead.
You may not think Tesla will change the trucking industry alone but so many others here think it's the messiah, they act like no other company is producing an electric truck or will by the time Tesla actually gets around to producing it in 2020 or later knowing their track record. When Tesla gets around to producing a working prototype, one that actually produces numbers and specs, then I'll consider how the company can adapt. How is the truck going to charge and where? can I install a charger in the yard? I can't have drivers eating up time sitting and having to drive out of the way just to use a mega charger. If I can install my own what are the costs? Right now to use the supercharger for the S, it's a 50 minute drive without houston traffic to the closest one. If the MCs get installed in the same areas that's 2 hours of drive time and 2.5 hours of clock time taken away from a driver if they aren't in the area that day.
If I can get a more local charger that would help but still eats into their drive time and clock time, especially if it's not on the direct route. Most local drivers, at least in this area are actually paid hourly, it's not based on mileage like OTR trucking. If I can get a personal charger put in how much will that cost if it's even possible? to charge even 500KWH over night I'll need a minimum 50kW charger( not counting for charging losses) How much is that gonna cost? 10,20, $50K. These are the things I'm talking about and no one else is. There are so many costs and logistical hurdles that need to be overcome and people seem to be oblivious to them. This is going to be a very slow implementation, people keep referring back to oh Tesla has grand master plan and they know exactly what they are doing. We're 5 years into the Model S and people are still having to micromanage a trip to california, It was outright impossible until last week because there were no superchargers in New Mexico, you had to stop at an RV park to charge on their 14-50. The stretch in West Texas is still sketchy with all of the high winds out there and you'll often find yourself getting speed warnings in order to make it to the next charging station.
And you're right about little guys getting shut out. It fuking sucks when a company can just come in and underbid everyone to shut them down. Thats how a lot of former owners become owner operators working for one of the bigger companies. The best thing someone can do is start stashing capital away to afford the bigger upfront costs then take the fuel savings and put it towards the next truck. However, until the charging infrastructure becomes known it's all a moot point as you can't run a truck you can't charge.
I'd suggest that they will be somewhat similar to destination chargers in that Tesla will give them to fleets who purchase semis and subsidize some or all of the installation costs.
brucet999
Active Member
That's the best we can hope for but the costs have to be through the roof I'm not sure if Tesla is going to do that or if companies that can only afford one or a few trucks would qualify.
On Single phase 240V @80amps that's 19kW
Three phase 208 @ 80amps would get 28kw
I'd need to find a way to get three phase 480v right off the power line ($$$) which would get 66kw @ 80amps and a power factor of one.
from what I can surmise they are only guaranteeing the power rate at their chargers they control. Which can be good in some area, as commercial rates can get well below 7c and would be better for those charging on their own.
Edit: 88,560kWh last bill with a peak demand of 178kW. I'm right at 7C without taxes and 7.2-7.7 all in. I doubt teslas 7cents includes taxes which you can bet they'll have to charge.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
One thing to factor in when looking at this.. the cost per mile means there are a lot more jobs you can do that would be profitable.
I think its the opposite. Users will sign 7 cent PPAs to fund the construction of megachargers. The fuel side is intended as a profit center. This is solarcity on steroids for commercial customers.
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