No, 300 mile range would only be a 600kWh pack. Making the difference $75/kWh.
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No, 300 mile range would only be a 600kWh pack. Making the difference $75/kWh.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
definitely helps to do the math right.$75/kwh is very cheap lower than I would expect given a profit margin.
In the unveil video it looks like the Semi uses multiples of the same components, they use four of the same motor and several of the same battery module. Producing only one motor assembly design and battery module could reduce the overall cost.
Add to that that it's the Model 3 motors x4, so they're already expecting to make 500,000 to 1,000,000 (Model Y) of them a year. Serious economy of scale.
Well, that statement was fro Musk. So it was "aspirational". More likely the motors are similar and come from the same R&D.
Reverse the analysis. Why would Tesla want to build model 3 motors capable of operating under a high average load for a million miles? Extra cost and extra weight for no benefit in the model 3.
But I do think the reusability of the Tesla parts bin and R&D is a major competitive advantage. Musk even seems to have avoided the temptation to create "the worlds best second row seating" for the semi.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Because Elon said he wanted that for all Teslas after the issues with failures in the model S he has stated repeatedly that he wants drive unit failures to be a non issue for S, X, 3, and anything else Tesla ever makes.
I affects total cost of ownership (TCO), it affects warranty costs, it affects service center staffing levels and mobile service technician staffing levels, it affects every Tesla section from corporate, to manufacturing, to sales, to service.
SebastianR
Active Member
I'm actually quite stunned, not more people have picked up on the redundancy that the Semi has build in- with the exception of 1 driver seat (ok and 1 steering wheel etc.) almost everything seems to be implemented with redundancy: Elon Musk said, the Semi could work with 2 motors only, then it seems to have two screens, multiple battery packs, multiple supercharger connectors (it is one connector, but it looks like a bundling of 8 super charger connectors) etc. It seems to have high level of sophisticated diagnostics available remotely.
Why is this important? I would imagine that Tesla does not want to send service units out on roads. But rather have Semis that somehow "limp" back home to a service station if anything breaks. With a single Diesel engine this would not work (some of the every large mining trucks have multiple diesel engines and multiple electric engines - they follow similar thinking, there is simply no way you could tow such a mining monster). Having this in mind, the nuclear blast proof windshield all of a sudden makes sense: it is not a silly gimmick but part of the "this truck won't need any service out on a road, ever" plan that Tesla seems to be devising. The million miles guarantee is - from that perspective - an easy no brainer to drive this selling point.
That is a lot of money. And that's without a sleeper? a new diesel is less than $100K so you have to come up with $80,000 to match that. Again, 97% of trucking companies have less than 20 trucks in the fleet, they aren't made of money and would need to come up with a way to afford these. There's over 350,000 owner operators, again, these guys aren't made of money to crap an additional 50-80K of of their ass. A sleeper can be had around 100K but usually start around 120 list price and a full fledged maxed out sleeper diesel model will be around 160K If tesla can get the conventional to around 130 and sleeper models to around 180 then it will be a great success.
With the prices they have posted now I don't see them selling to anyone other than large companies and everyone else will wait for the prices to come down or the used market. Also I don't see anyone buying a Founders truck and dropping 200K in capital for something they know nothing about.
With the prices they have posted now I don't see them selling to anyone other than large companies and everyone else will wait for the prices to come down or the used market. Also I don't see anyone buying a Founders truck and dropping 200K in capital for something they know nothing about.
The smaller operators you talk about don't drop cash to buy their trucks; they lease or take out loans. So if the cost of (diesel loan repayment + fuel)/month is greater than the cost of (Tesla Semi loan repayment + cheap electricity)/month, they'll just take out a bigger loan.
As for "Founder's Semi", being first to have a lower cost in a tough market might be worth it; they would have spreadsheets to tell them that.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Wanted to add this to this thread as well - fwiw, the Ports of LA & Long Beach are, combined, the largest port complex on the continent. But still just one collective port. For the most part, all of the charging would be done in the ports, and maybe over at one of the rail yards inland.
Huge potential globally, one would think.
Tesla’s Semi already making waves at LA, Long Beach port complex — 2 years before its release – Daily Breeze
Huge potential globally, one would think.
Tesla’s Semi already making waves at LA, Long Beach port complex — 2 years before its release – Daily Breeze
That would all depend on the banks. My banks don't care if I'm buying something more expensive but the operating costs are lower. All they care about is the purchase price. I can get financing for around 130k on new trucks. I can't get approved for financing on 180k+. And I don't have 30-50k of capital I can risk. If there is another bust in the industry I'm stuck with asserts that aren't making money and I owe money on. A diesel truck that sits costs just as much in fuel as an EV that sits.
I had the same problem getting solar panels, solar payment would be at or less than the savings from the solar, no brainer, of course I can afford it. It was a bank that specialized in solar loans and they didn't care, computer said I couldn't afford it, I couldn't afford it. Solar is much more proven than these trucks and all they go off of is what the computer says.
Ports are the perfect place for short range trucks. Here in Houston there are thousands of trucks that do nothing but troll around the port area and go less than 200 miles a day some less than 100. An affordable single axle, low cab would be a no brainer if the grid could handle it.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
$75/kwh is very cheap lower than I would expect given a profit margin.
tough to know without the battery pack sizes and relative margins on each...
ValueAnalyst
Closed
It is indeed an insanely low price. It's insane to price something in such high demand so low.
“Supposedly, they’re going to build a truck plant at the Gigafactory,” Tesla’s lithium-ion battery production facility in Nevada, said Ike Brown, president of NFI Industries.
Tires and the air system is not redundant.
I don't think the big missing story is redundancy, I think it is how Tesla plans to sell both truck and fuel.
Hmmm...
The popout windows I see on the video are the side windows in the cab, not the door... unless those also have them and I missed it. But it's the cab windows that are adjacent to the driver for your Swindle Sheet scenario.
And if I'm talking about the same thing you mention, what you called out as being an 8" lever, I interpreted to be the leading latch/flap of a retractable shade for the side window...
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Well, it's a Tesla, so what we know for sure is it's not a coat hook.
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