Is that loaded or not? Tesla's 500mile range is based on a full 80,000lb load. I guess it might do 1000 miles tractor only
That's one thing I see people keep forgetting. There was an article today (Seeking Alpha maybe?) from someone pointing out (with inflated pack mass figures*** and forgetting to account for all the hardware you remove from a diesel and how Tesla builds general vehicle structures light with advanced alloys) that Semi is going to be a loser because it cuts into payload per trip, and if you're doing more severely weight-limited deliveries - such as 40k lbs - then it's a bigger cut.
Yes, but if you're doing 40k lb deliveries,
your range is far longer. Meaning that for the same delivery distance, you can drive at higher speeds (which you can get away with in EVs, within speed limits, because your "fuel" is far cheaper), meaning more throughput, and/or buy the "300 mile" Semi version instead, which is both cheaper and probably 1,5 tonnes lighter, but will go much further than 300 miles because you're only hauling half the mass. Both options of which are much more dramatic savings than any potential loss of payload (even inflated ones).
*** He took the whole-pack mass from the Model S 85D and adjusted it to 1MWh (which he of course called "mWh"
). Ignoring:
* It's "under 1 MWh", not exactly 1MWh. We don't know yet how much under, but it is under. The 1MWh is based on 500 miles at 2kWh/mi, but the actual number is "under 2kWh/mi". We don't know how much under (one assumes it's "relatively close"), but even 1,8kWh/mi would imply 900kWh.
* 85D is outdated tech even today, let alone when Semi starts shipping
* 85D used 18650s; this will almost certainly use larger format cells, as energy is more needed than power (the pack is so large that power will be in excess, even for a semi)
* The larger you make a pack in general, the lower the percent of the mass is "overhead"
Going against this in the other direction they might, say, move from NCA to NMC. But that's not some massive difference. I'm much more expecting something like a 5 tonne pack rather than a 7 tonne pack like he estimated. And the 300 mile range version with a 3,5 tonne pack. And I think Tesla will keep all of the remainder of the tractor mass surprisingly low (beyond just omitting "diesel-related" hardware - e.g., by building most of the safety cell with UHS steel rather than mild steel, which has 4-5 times the tensile strength). I expect the 300 mile version to be surprisingly similar in weight to a conventional tractor, and the 500 mile one not vastly moreso.
