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Tesla Supercharger network
- Thread starter dsm363
- Start date
Hmm. Grid 3000 x 1500, broken into squares, diagonal distance between centers of the squares, 120, then approximate length is 85, and grid has about 625 squares.
625 x 300000 / 1000 = 187500.
But they'd need to sell a lot of cars. Certainly not going to happen yet, unless sites wanted to pay for the construction..
HankLloydRight
No Roads
What are the magic numbers in your equation? Units? I have no idea what you're trying to demonstrate here.
edit: I'm guessing 300000 is a guess at the cost of installing a SC: $300,000.
And 1000 is the cost of enabling supercharging when buying a car, which is actually $2,000.
So your calculation is actually:
625 x $300,000 / $2,000 = 93,750 cars.
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
Tesla needs more than a 1,000 just for coverage of North America, Europe, and Asia. On top of that, dense Tesla areas will need more Supercharger Sites and more Supercharger Stalls at existing sites.
The U.S. Interstate Highway system is about 48,000 miles in length, Interstate Highway System - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Tesla is putting Supercharger sites at 100-133 mile intervals for quick charging, fast driving, weather buffer, and working well for 60's. If we use 100 so that there are some extras for the small highways, and dense Tesla areas, that is 480 Supercharger sites, let's round up to 500 for the U.S.
The Trans-Canada Highway is about 5,000 miles, Trans-Canada Highway - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. The priority may not be the Trans Canada Highway, but that is quick guess to span the country. That would be 50 Superchargers for Canada, for a total of about 550 for U.S. and Canadian coverage in North Ameria.
The German Autobahn system is about 8,000 miles. I will take a WAG (Wild Ass Guess) and say that all of Europe is about 5x Germany or 40,000 miles and 400 Superchargers.
I know little about Asian highways, but China is big and Japan is dense. I will take a SWAG (Stupid Wild Ass Guess) and say that Asia needs 250 Supercharger sites to get started.
Toss in 50 for Australia, and the world-wide total is 1,250 Supercharger Sites without even thinking about South America or Africa, much less Mexico, Central America, or West/South Asia.
Tesla is moving towards building 60,000 cars next year. If we say that a Supercharger Site costs 2x a Tesla car, then 300 Supercharger Sites is equivalent to the cost of 600 cars, or a 1% overhead in cash needs. My estimate is that Tesla is amortizing the Superchargers over 10 years or so and the electricity and upkeep is about 10%, that means the annual cost is about 20% of the construction cost or 40% of a car per Supercharger Site per year on the bottom line. Start 2015 with 300 Superchargers, end with 600, then that is an average of 450 for 2015. Take that times 40% for expense, and the expense line is 180 car equivalents or 0.3% expense on the bottom line.
At a 0.3% expense item, building Superchargers at this rate is a no-brainer, and building well more than 600 world-wide will be important to maintaining sales and sales growth in the coming years for Tesla.
$300,000 per Supercharger installation, $1,000 per car.
I didn't use $2,000 because there's
a) Rent
b) Electricity
c) Maintenance
d) DC charging hardware
I know there's a the "marketing" aspect, but I wanted to be realistic that the Supercharger cost isn't just about the installation.
They can install ahead of sales, but to me the numbers suggest that really full US coverage will come as Model 3 is introduced.
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I'm not sure that economic model makes sense.
Regardless, I agree with the several follow on posts outlining the need or demand for a significant number, both from an ease-of-geographic-accessibility as well congestion standpoint.
Regardless, I agree with the several follow on posts outlining the need or demand for a significant number, both from an ease-of-geographic-accessibility as well congestion standpoint.
For decades, there have been more $ millionaires in India than the US, although there are many additional infrastructure constraints. Same dynamic applies to other countries in different proportions.
I'm not sure your statement above is accurate. I travel to India 3-4 times per year and would never spend the money to drive a nice car there. The infrastructure is poor and congestion is so bad you'd never enjoy it.
See link for millionaires by country.
India ranked No. 8 on global list of multimillionaires - The Times of India
My memory of the ranking is out of date, apparently, from when I lived in the region. Otherwise, I said pretty much the same thing about infrastructure, although seems there is a market for high-end cars for local use (avoiding the highways, and in Hyderabad/Bangalore-type places).
Worldwide 18 supercharger stations have opened in November and 42 in the last month. Now that is what I call progress!!
http://supercharge.info/
http://supercharge.info/
So this was posted in the Harris Ranch thread, but rather than taking the discussion further off topic, I decided to post here. SpC count in various cities:
WTF? What the heck is London doing with 5! Superchargers? Half the worldwide density of MS is in California and we will soon only have 2 SpC in LA while London has 5. What's the reason for that? Apartment dwellers that don't have access to charging points? Ok, maybe, but what about 4 chargers in Chicago? Don't see any logic in these numbers.
WTF? What the heck is London doing with 5! Superchargers? Half the worldwide density of MS is in California and we will soon only have 2 SpC in LA while London has 5. What's the reason for that? Apartment dwellers that don't have access to charging points? Ok, maybe, but what about 4 chargers in Chicago? Don't see any logic in these numbers.
My guess other than differences in population - maybe it's easier to build stuff outside the US.
(Just venting - cuz it took me three months to get 'permission' to cut a tree branch)
And I can guarantee that LA squashes both of them in terms of the population of Tesla's.
There are multiple Superchargers in London because garage parking is uncommon in the city. Elon said that SCs would be built in cities where off street residential parking was limited.
Just speculation, but I can guess at a number of reasons:
- London was the place where (at the UK Model S launch) they announced the change of strategy to provide inner-city superchargers for the use of people with no off-street parking.
- Tesla had a plan for a UK roll-out of 'normal' superchargers (ie. located to support long-distance travel). That plan was aborted at the last minute due to a dispute that got tied up in the courts (as has been documented elsewhere). So I imagine there was some combination of "we've got these supercharger parts lying around, where can we put them", and a desire to appease UK owners to whom specific promises had been made about the long-distance network. Very likely when the original plan was aborted, they accelerated other plans they had in the pipleline.
- The London superchargers are mostly 2-bay installs, almost certainly using already-available power. Also, most of them are indoors and so probably don't need Planning Permission (== "permitting"), so are generally locations that can go much more quickly from an agreement with the landlord to a finished install.
- I don't have any figures to back this up, but I have a suspicion that while a number of US cities may have significant populations without off-street parking, those districts may not house many potential Model S customers? In London, you can find extremely expensive properties without dedicated parking, to an extent I think you don't get in (for example) LA. On-street parking restricted to residents but without assigned spaces is quite common here.
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Benz
Active Member
Expansion of the Supercharger network per continent and global in 2012 + 2013 + 2014.
North America: 9 + 41 + 80 = 130
Europe: 0 + 14 + 74 = 88
Asia: 0 + 0 + 34 = 34
Global: 9 + 55 + 188 = 252
Outlook for 2015: about 300 more?
North America: 9 + 41 + 80 = 130
Europe: 0 + 14 + 74 = 88
Asia: 0 + 0 + 34 = 34
Global: 9 + 55 + 188 = 252
Outlook for 2015: about 300 more?
London has a significant daily car tax. I believe it's to reduce congestion. Having said that, are there EV incentives in the city? That alone would increase EV sales.
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