Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

My post wasnt made out of concern for me making money.

We need Tesla to succeed. Q1 posted a massive loss. Then Elon sends the email about cutting costs. A company needs to pull in enough revenue to survive. So why cut prices when you're trying to get the company in a stable financial position?

Twice you've replied and neither time did you answer that. Instead, I got your usual assumptions about another poster (me) and your condescension.

A) There was no assumptions or condescension in my post to you. I also wasn’t addressing any money making concern related to you.
B) I answered your question.
C) The company IS in a stable financial position (finished quarter with 2.2B cash) and continues to move in that direction. Continued cost cutting and continued efficiencies is a GOOD a thing to prepare the company for the supposed coming recession and whatever else.

They did post profits in Q3 & Q418 or have you forgotten that? You know why there was a Q1 loss. It was explained by Tesla. It’s not expected to be repeated in Q2, also explained by Tesla. You’re making an assumption that Q1 will be repeated because of a demand issue - that does not exist.

It’s clearly my failure to not be able to answer your question in a way you understand. Perhaps someone else can give it a go or has already does so.

 

[ggr]

Active suspension, yes. Maxwell Ultracapacitors? Unlikely.

Surprisingly it makes perfect sense.
https://www.maxwell.com/solutions/transportation/active-suspension
You need lots of current for very short periods.

 

[Do It]

It comes from the "2018 CEO Performance Award" section of the 10-K (page 123):

As of December 31, 2018, we had $598.0 million of total unrecognized stock-based compensation expense for the operational milestones that were considered probable of achievement, which will be recognized over a weighted-average period of 3.1 years. As of December 31, 2018, we had unrecognized stock-based compensation expense of $1.51 billion for the operational milestones that were considered not probable of achievement. From March 21, 2018, when the grant was approved by our stockholders, through December 31, 2018, we recorded stock-based compensation expense of $174.9 million related to the 2018 CEO Performance Award.​

175m recognized in 2018 + 598m unrecognized but probable + 1510m unrecognized and not probable = 2.283 billion.

It's purely coincidental that net proceeds from the recent capital raise were also roughly 2.3b.

Thanks for the explaination! If recognized was 175m, wouldn't a fair statement be that Elon made 175m? I am not a accountant but it seems that until the money is in Elon's account, you can't say he is paid, right?

 

[MP3Mike]

https://www.maxwell.com/solutions/transportation/active-suspension
You need lots of current for very short periods.

Really? For air suspension?

 

[anthonyj]

...but the fake China fire video came out TWO days before the earnings call.

Which was also the day of autonomy :0

 

[bdy0627]

It comes from the "2018 CEO Performance Award" section of the 10-K (page 123):

As of December 31, 2018, we had $598.0 million of total unrecognized stock-based compensation expense for the operational milestones that were considered probable of achievement, which will be recognized over a weighted-average period of 3.1 years. As of December 31, 2018, we had unrecognized stock-based compensation expense of $1.51 billion for the operational milestones that were considered not probable of achievement. From March 21, 2018, when the grant was approved by our stockholders, through December 31, 2018, we recorded stock-based compensation expense of $174.9 million related to the 2018 CEO Performance Award.​

175m recognized in 2018 + 598m unrecognized but probable + 1510m unrecognized and not probable = 2.283 billion.

It's purely coincidental that net proceeds from the recent capital raise were also roughly 2.3b.

Good details to the comp. Thanks. The media is predictably distorting it in a massive way to make Elon look crazy greedy, as if he actually got paid $2.3B in 2018.

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk is bringing home the bacon. So much bacon that his peers will have to settle for the scraps. According to the latest New York Times compensation report, Musk was the highest paid chief executive of 2018. And it wasn’t even close.
The polarizing entrepreneur pulled in a whopping $2.3 billion last year, overshadowing the next 65 contestants combined."
Elon Musk’s Insane Payday: 40,668 Times the Median Tesla Salary

"According a report on CEO compensation in 2018 from The New York Times, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was paid nearly $2.3 billion last year. This is more than the next 65 highest-paid CEOs combined."
Elon Musk made more in 2018 than the next 65 highest-paid CEOs combined, according to a report

 

[mongo]

Really? For air suspension?

For the active damping. Air pressure sets ride height and cancels vehicle weight, but you need to change the suspension force to provide damping (unload on a bump, reload after/ on dip). Guessing the system is electromagnetic so high current -> high magnetic field -> high damping/ reacting force but only during the displacement event. Could even be regenerative.

 

[bdy0627]

Is there any evidence that it was faked? Has Tesla addressed it other than the OTA update the did? I keep waiting to tell everyone that it was faked or intentional, but I'm starting to get worried at this point.

Worried about what? Either way, the fire is out at this point.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m really losing my mind

The latest episode was triggered when TSLAQ shortzes told you "If Tesla would just do a Cap Raise, then everything will be all right". You repeated that mantra here for several weeks. Then as soon as the Cap Raise closed, TSLAQ moved on to the next B.S.

Flat spin advanced recovery technique recommended: ​

Lesson Learned: TSLAQ troll's gonna serve up the B.S. dejour to get you to take a bite, then they move on to the next steaming serving of doo-doo. So what to do instead?

IMHO, if you're going to swing trade TSLA, if buying on the way up, you need to be ready to sell on the technicals. Let's look at the Google chart for TSLA from May 7th:

The selloff started right at the Opening as TSLA came within $0.60 of the Middle Bollinger Band (the 2nd session in a row that level was tested). See the stockchart from May 7 at 10:10 am: (notice the Middle-BB was $257.87)

So when TSLA couldn't hold the Mid-BB, the SP promptly marched down to the Lower-BB, and it has been riding it down ever since, $67 so far. Likely manipulated, but it is what it is, right?

There may be strategies to make money in this setup (I'm no expert on that), but at least let's recognise the signals and turning points for what's going on with the SP.

Personally, with my 7-8 yr investment horizon, I am not playing these games. I choose simply to size my bet appropriately, watch the action and HODL. And also to support the Investor Community, Tesla, and the Mission:

"Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."​

Viewed in these terms, I'd say my Tesla investment is already an amazing feat, and likely to get far better as products and production expand in the mid term. TSLA will take care of itself, Tesla is in no danger of failing. HTH.

Cheers!

 

[SPadival]

Conflats Cap raise (net proceeds from May 2019 Equity raise) with CEO compensation. Yes, ISYN.

@ZachShahan Excellent article. A small pedantic correction.

if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the several billion dollars we currently have would only last 10 months.

Should actually be..

if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the several billion dollars we have recently raised would only last 10 months.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Is there any evidence that it was faked? Has Tesla addressed it other than the OTA update the did? I keep waiting to tell everyone that it was faked or intentional, but I'm starting to get worried at this point.

There are 17 vehicle fires every hour, that’s just in the US. Do you worry about all of them?

 

[MartinAustin]

I'm going to guess it's just something to announce the exterior structure of GF3 is complete.

Occam's Razor. This gets my vote too.

Don't forget that a lot of people have not been following Tesla's exploits in China in as much detail as the folks on this thread. (or those drone-totin', Youtube-uploadin' Chinese whiz-kids)

Something as simple as "look how fast our building got put up. Now we're moving in with robots and presses etc."

 

[VValleyEV]

Hi there

NOA data:

After navigating a very tricky 43 ramps in 62 different directions section of highway flawlessly, NOA did two new things that impressed the crap out of me.

1. I was in lane two from the left of 6 lanes. Put the signal on to move one lane right. NOA prepared to move, had the blue line and then it suddenly went red, though no ‘cars’ appeared on the screen in neighboring lanes.

I looked over my right shoulder and there’s a speeding SUV coming across multiple lanes from the right - but still two lanes over and behind me. The SUV hit the lane next to me just as it got beside me.

I got the distinct impression my car had anticipated this would happen and thus why it held its lane until the SUV passed. In reality it likely picked up a fast moving object coming on a trajectory toward the space it wanted to go - or some such.

2. I was in the right most lane of 4 lanes. A new merge lane was forming to my right with two cars that were going to merge into my lane. There was a very short merge distance. My exit ramp was right after this merge ended.

The two cars coming on the merge lane were close together. My car and those cars were going to meet at exactly the same time, causing my car to prevent both from being able to merge.

Just as I was about to disengage NOA to take over and yield to those cars, my car slowed enough to create my preset follow distance (7) and let those two cars merge in front of me seamlessly. It was like the car read my mind/knew my driving style.

Gobsmacked.

Terrific NOA feedback. Have you tried the “no-confirmation lane changes” option that CR complained so much about?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

NOA data:

After navigating a very tricky 43 ramps in 62 different directions section of highway flawlessly, NOA did two new things that impressed the crap out of me.

1. I was in lane two from the left of 6 lanes. Put the signal on to move one lane right. NOA prepared to move, had the blue line and then it suddenly went red, though no ‘cars’ appeared on the screen in neighboring lanes.

I looked over my right shoulder and there’s a speeding SUV coming across multiple lanes from the right - but still two lanes over and behind me. The SUV hit the lane next to me just as it got beside me.

I got the distinct impression my car had anticipated this would happen and thus why it held its lane until the SUV passed. In reality it likely picked up a fast moving object coming on a trajectory toward the space it wanted to go - or some such.

2. I was in the right most lane of 4 lanes. A new merge lane was forming to my right with two cars that were going to merge into my lane. There was a very short merge distance. My exit ramp was right after this merge ended.

The two cars coming on the merge lane were close together. My car and those cars were going to meet at exactly the same time, causing my car to prevent both from being able to merge.

Just as I was about to disengage NOA to take over and yield to those cars, my car slowed enough to create my preset follow distance (7) and let those two cars merge in front of me seamlessly. It was like the car read my mind/knew my driving style.

Gobsmacked.

Yep, I’ve also seen one time where there was a merge of the two lanes to my right coming up and a car beside and slightly behind me in the rightmost of those two lanes. NOA turned on the signal and then showed up the lane as red with no cars in it, waiting for the car two lanes over because it would be merging ahead.

 

[Pras]

@ZachShahan Excellent article. A small pedantic correction.

if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the several billion dollars we currently have would only last 10 months.

Should actually be..

if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the several billion dollars we have recently raised would only last 10 months.

My only issue in the article is reference to TroyTeslike’s 74k delivery estimate. This is just an estimate for Troy and he has less data than Elon. So if indeed it goes to 74k vs 91k it is not an acceptable range of error.

Tesla has clear sight on 50k orders in 51 days, plus recent trends and inventory cars; hence the remaining 40 days expectation should not be off by 40% (24k bs 41k). I am hoping (and guessing) that Troy Teslike is being very conservative.

I know that @ZachShahan did it to suggest the buffer and blunt the shock effect if Tesla underdelivers.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Really? For air suspension?

Let’s not confuse active suspension with adaptive suspension. Active uses power, and adjusts using energy for every bump. Adaptive changes setting for current conditions. Raven is adaptive.
AFAIK, active suspension is a futuristic feature, not on production cars.

 

[aznt1217]

Holy batman!! Look at the like to dislike ratio and the comments!! So I thought it was worth pointing this out to her on twitter



EDIT: I am trying to guess who is this banned concern troll that replied to my tweet ( profile says "Banned by Tesla Investors Club").

therottenrook on Twitter

Wow. WTF did I just watch.

Can't get the cars out the door? Well there's no demand so why should they get the cars out the door.
Looking to the east... squandering money? Not wasting time on construction.

Not even worth typing at this point

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

There are 17 vehicle fires every hour, that’s just in the US. Do you worry about all of them?

No. I was only worried about the one a guy on a Tesla fan website mentioned. He said it was faked and I was asking if that had been confirmed. If that info is out there, I'd like to have it at my disposal. Anything wrong with that?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Wow. WTF did I just watch.

Can't get the cars out the door? Well there's no demand so why should they get the cars out the door.
Looking to the east... squandering money? Not wasting time on construction.

Not even worth typing at this point

This was labeled a "debate"? Really?

 

[JohnDinger]

...but the fake China fire video came out TWO days before the earnings call.

Did Tesla ever issue a statement saying it was fake? I remember they were sending investigators out there, but Phil LeBeau backed off the fake claims iirc