Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

So, you're saying the legacy ICE OEMs are between a rock and a hard place, something like this?

Is this a real picture or photoshop?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I take umbrage at the highlighted sentence. You have to understand that the fossil-fuel industry has been and continues to be subsidised several orders of magnitude above renewables. A bit or a dichotomy really...

 

[theschnell]

This is my favorite part of that ridiculous blog:

“About the reaction of Cramer’s daughter, to a Tesla Model 3, and that it’s somehow also every other person’s reaction, here is what is really going on.

Most people don’t drive all the new cars being introduced into the market. Most people have very driven very few of the best new cars that came out in the last 3-5 years — a whole generation of automobiles.

As with a brand new computer compared to one that’s 3-5 years ago, starting to use a brand new one will be a most refreshing experience for essentially everyone — as long as that new device (computer or car) does not malfunction, at which point the person is likely to sour unless there is a swift, costless and painless remedy that doesn’t repeat itself too frequently.

Therefore, there reality is that *anyone* who gets into a brand new car — almost any new car, at any price level — will be impressed by it. This goes for the Tesla Model 3 as well as a 2020 Nissan Sentra or 2020 Mazda CX-30 — two all-new cars that become available in U.S. retail this December season. Professional auto journalists praised them, and I don’t think almost anyone of them thought a Tesla Model 3 was objectively any better, even though it’s in a different price class.”

He obviously has never driven the car himself. It is so clearly better and more fun than any non-Tesla car out there (in and out of its price range) that trying to say it only seems that way because it is a new car and any new car would give the same reaction is amazing. It’s basically saying that all new cars out there, from a Ford Focus to a Model S, would basically give about the same in terms of a person’s level of enjoyment as long as they are new.

Ha ha. When my Model 3 was being repaired due to an accident I had, I was given a 2019 Toyota Corolla. All I can say is that thing was such a POS that I strongly preferred my 2012 Prius to it, and obviously neither of those two compare to a model 3. Unless you literally enjoy feeling a vehicle shift and hearing the exhaust (some people do), then no ICE has any hope of comparing to a Tesla.

 

[Fred42]

Kay, I'll take some of that action. I agree 2020H1 (sometime after or even DURING battery and powertrain day), and I'll say Mid-West USA (possibly Chicagoland).

Cheers, and enjoy Italy!

That's too much of a labor union area.

Less seriously I wouldn't want to build cars in a tent in a Chicago winter.

 

[Singuy]

I'm glad you posted that. The more I reflect on TSLA's 2019 price action, the more the pieces of the puzzle fall into place. Until now, I felt like that drop down to $180 was a mystery. I suspected it had to do with FUD and shorts but it didn't really make a lot of sense to me. Of course, it was good for me as I was able to double my position at $180/share. Now I think it was a coordinated multi-billion-dollar effort to "kill Tesla" when they thought Tesla would be at their weakest point and I think they planned it months in advance. The people affiliated with the billionaire shorts even use that language, "kill Tesla" when they talk about Tesla. They don't mean to, they can't help it, it just comes out.

I think the billionaire anti-Tesla detractors were convinced that demand for Model 3 would start to dry up after the $7500 tax credit was cut in half at the beginning of 2019 and most orders for reservations had been filled. That Tesla would be at their weakest point in June/July 2019. They also thought Tesla was over-extending themselves by building a huge factory in China that would make them mvulnerable to their attack. It makes sense they would rally their resources and attack at that weakest point. So, right when Tesla should have been rallying, they attacked the share price. I suspect they might have also pulled a few strings to foul up Tesla's supply chain or delivery channels too (previous to that). Not that it was all that effective. And the FUD was running thick and strong. The "professional" type of FUD, getting articles in MSM, appearances on CNBC, etc. The false information about the "pedo" diver from the private eye might have been part of this as well, who knows. In any case, that was a major attack on the share price that took TSLA share price far below what anyone who knew anything about Tesla's prospects would endorse. It really made no sense.

The only problem was that Tesla was actually executing masterfully and demand was climbing through the roof as people found out what a great car the Model 3 actually was. Production became more efficient. Sales continued to climb. The China factory was being built with very little capital outlay and was far ahead of the original schedule, a schedule their enemies didn't even think they could meet. Model Y was ahead of schedule too and demand was strong and growing stronger. China was showering Tesla with every present in the book. The Plaid Model S was kicking Taycan's butt. The fraudsters thought they had an opening when they saw what the Cybertruck looked like and the disastrous reveal with the window breaking. But then it went viral and, much to their horror, people started to like it. Orders were through the roof. Everyone was talking about it! Musk was victorious in the defamation lawsuit. Then it was learned the Taycan could only really go 200 miles! There was not a single competitor to Tesla in sight! How could Musk have pulled this off? They started to say he must be made of Teflon. Musk is Teflon man!

So the attack failed. The fraudsters threw a lot of money down the drain, money in addition to their normal shorting losses. TSLA share price has a LOT of catching up to do. Tesla's well-heeled enemies are recoiling in horror that it went so poorly. We can be thankful their wallets are lighter.

Thank you @Davidzhao365 for bringing this up and causing me to reflect on past events in a new light! It has been enlightning.

Hmm. Couple of things.

-Elon did not give people any indication that they will raise capital when asked multiple times

-Elons guide for S/X was way off and also shut down shifts. They sold and built way less before Raven.

-Elon leaked an email stating Tesla bankruptcy by Oct if they people don't get their *sugar* together

I mean you may not be wrong, but a lot did go right for multibillionairs especially out of Elons mouth for this attack to work.

 

[mongo]

Elon leaked an email stating Tesla bankruptcy by Oct if they people don't get their *sugar* together

That was not what the e-mail said, nor did Elon leak it (unless you know something we don't). That is what certain reporters wanted people to think the e-mail said.

What it actually said was: if the previous loss number continued, the amount Tesla had just raised would only last X months.

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk launches new 'hardcore' cost-cutting effort, will review all expenses - Electrek

It was a reality check and call to not be wasteful.

Even if they burned through that, they would still have had the original $2 billion+ , not yet anywhere near bankruptcy.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Elon leaked an email stating Tesla bankruptcy by Oct if they people don't get their *sugar* together

Come off it, I know you know better than this.

 

[AlMc]

Could not have said that better.

In fact at this stage my hatred for all things TSLAQ and specially the MSM scoundrels, overwhelms my admiration and love for Tesla and Musk. As much i would like to see Tesla winning and winning big, I want to see some of these scumbags lose their home, family and get thrown to the streets looking for food stamps. Scorned by family, friends and penniless I wouldn't shed a tear if some of them commit suicide. And what would absolutely make me ecstatic and if Karma is really a thing, would be to see some of these MSM lowlifes go to jail - I am thinking of you Linette, Charlie, Russ, Mark M, and that Ryan@Buzfeed scumbag and many more..

Personally, I will be happy if the mission statement is realized. While I have no respect for many of the above mentioned individuals and TSLAQ, in general, I would be just as happy if they keep their homes and move on to another negative crusade.

 

[Singuy]

That was not what the e-mail said, nor did Elon leak it (unless you know something we don't). That is what certain reporters wanted people to think the e-mail said.

What it actually said was: if the previous loss number continued, the amount Tesla had just raised would only last X months.

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk launches new 'hardcore' cost-cutting effort, will review all expenses - Electrek

It was a reality check and call to not be wasteful.

Even if they burned through that, they would still have had the original $2 billion+ , not yet anywhere near bankruptcy.

Sorry I meant to write "wrote a leaked email". Elon did not leak any emails.

 

[nvsblman]

I was a volunteer assisting with new owner orientations at this location this weekend. A couple interesting take-aways:

While there's still room for improvement in how Tesla organizes these delivery pushes so that they waste less of their customers' time, they've made some nice progress. The last time I assisted was Q3 2018. This space back then still had a car displayed in it and had basically one stand for people to check in at.

Contrast with this weekend. The entire gallery space had been reconfigured to maximize delivery flow. A check-in stand at the entrance, then eight paperwork stations (ie 8 cars could be processing paperwork simultaneously). Room for about another 8 couples waiting to be called up for paperwork.

The outer lot was split approximately in thirds--one third for trade-ins, one third for new vehicles going through orientation and drive-off, and a back lot where newer deliveries were being prepped. When a new owner drove off with their car, another came to replace it within a few minutes. They've also got a holding lot a block away where the delivery trucks drop the cars at so that it's not eating space at the Tesla location itself.

Much better use of space than last quarters.

I don't want to share the specific number, but this location's scheduled deliveries today were well over 100.



This delivery center has a Jaguar dealer adjacent. You'd never know whether it was open or not relative to the action happing at Tesla. Tesla had parking lot attendants directing traffic, for heaven's sakes.

It's also in a strip of other luxury dealers, including Audi, Volvo, Jag, etc. I would bet a fair penny that there were more customers at Tesla at any given time today than at all other dealers on this strip combined.

And all of those at Tesla were actively purchasing a vehicle.

Experiencing this craziness first-hand drives home the point: the game really has changed, and all other manufacturers are in deep trouble. This is just something that doesn't happen anywhere but with Tesla.

I'm glad things have improved there. My end of Q3 2018 was far from smooth (over 5.5 hours) and the delivery center was complete chaos.

 

[RFernatt]

Is this a real picture or photoshop?

Yes, I believe it is real. See note from Christine600 and photos in the Wikipedia entry.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Causalien]

Even though TSLA as an investment is only 3rd place in terms of absolute $$$ amount (2nd in terms of % rise). It is the one I am most proud of even though I only got involved during the IPO. It feels more satisfying than ones where I am part of the founding effort.

A lot of it has to do with all the unsolicited hate that I had to deal with in the beginning when I wasn't as careful about guarding the fact. Another part is the righ path that it is leading humanity towards.

One of these days I just want to be able to quietly enjoy its success. Not to brag about the epic plight of an early tsla investor, but just be able to quietly enjoy my car and not having ppl reactwith strong emotions when I say I drive a tesla. Also, it'd be nice not having to take extra precaution against all the vandalism towards tesla cars.

 

[mongo]

Apparently there is some fact checking in the world
Fake news report costs Bloomberg $7.6m in fines

Republished release from a fake version of the company's site and tanked the stock by 20%.

The AMF said Bloomberg did not respect journalistic ethics "as no verification of the information was undertaken before publication."

 

[jbcarioca]

It seems to me that the speculation that GF-5 would be in the US runs counter to all the most likely areas of maximum growth in demand for BEV and TE.

Mexico would be probable if South America and Mexico would be targets, most likely if GF-5 were to produce smaller BEVs including commercial vehicles, really that seems more like GF-7 or later;
Some EU location is more likely to meet continuing massive growth in EU BEV demand, probably including at least a couple smaller personal and commercial BEVs;
Another China or other Asian location is almost a certainty, maybe GF-6 or so.

My personal expectation is that GF-5 GF-6 and GF-7 will all be in construction within the next 18 months. These are almost certain to be one Asian, one European and one Americas. Specific locations might be surprises.

The missing links are TE-only factories, Cybertruck, Semi and Roadster facilities each of which might well be stand-alone non-GF. Both Cybertruck and Semi could end out with multiple smaller facilities since tehy both have atypical production requirements.

The only thing I am certain of is that we'll be surprised by some choices and astonished by the speed of new facilities.

Everyone is underestimating the rate of change in Vehicular and Energy industry changes during the next five years.

OTOH, the whole world is vastly understating the disastrous effects climate change is bringing right now. Tesla cannot grow quickly enough to provide material help. Most of our rosy future for TSLA depends on a less hostile future than the one we're most likely to have. Were that to become true there will be bigger problems than our investments in TSLA.

 

[MP3Mike]

It seems to me that the speculation that GF-5 would be in the US runs counter to all the most likely areas of maximum growth in demand for BEV and TE.

But from the 19Q3 release we know that the next items planned are going to be in the US:

Or at least the next planned things that they have made public.

And they said the Tesla Semi would start limited production next year, so maybe they tipped their hand a little bit and those items are actually in chronological order. (Though I thought they said that the Model Y would be the first thing built in GF4.)

 

[jerry33]

Any more word (or rumors) on CCS adapter for the US ? The european union one is $190 but wrong connector for here.

I used to think one was in the works, but with EvGo adding Tesla cables to their chargers, it may not ever happen. My thought is that others (like Charge Point) will add Tesla connectors.

 

[StealthP3D]

Public charging networks are a jungle. I agree there's lots out there, but good luck with finding the ones that work, or are in use, iced or for which you have an account.

I tried using a ChargePoint station in my town just to familiarize myself with the ChargePoint network but I couldn't figure out how to make the electrons come out. I don't really need them so I gave up. My credit card was fine but the instructions were like ???.

In contrast, there are two free 30A municipal chargers by City Hall and all you have to do is plug-in. Just like a Tesla Supercharger only a lot slower! Even though they are free I've only seen one car charging there other than a city-owned plug-in hybrid. That's out of around 100 checks so it might have 1% utilization. There are quite a few EV's around (mostly Tesla's) but people just charge at home. Even though there are plenty of restaurants, grocery shopping, boutique shops, a library, bookstores, pubs, deli's etc. all within walking distance of City Hall. I imagine if it were a free municipal gas pump, there would be a line to fill-up that ran to the City Limits 24/7! The city would go broke!

 

[Dreadnought]

Apparently there is some fact checking in the world
Fake news report costs Bloomberg $7.6m in fines

Republished release from a fake version of the company's site and tanked the stock by 20%.

The affected company's mcap took a $6 billion hit and they got fined 7.6 million?! That's 0.127%. Less than my first broker used to charge before online trading became a thing. SMH.

Edit to add that I'm aware that they got fined for negligence only.

 

[AudubonB]

My guess is that they are going to put up a temporary structure / tent, this would allow use for production to start 6 months earlier than if they had to wait for a building to be completed.

Those curved girders mean exactly that to me. Those are the skeletal parts to the kind of temporary tent-like structure Tesla was using in Fremont. Fremont showed the way how to enhance production beyond the means available to whatever permanent structure was available at any point in time. Once permanent's structure catches up, neither tents nor curved-girder skeletons are needed....at that site. Down it goes and the carnival moves to the next town Gigafactory.


Edited to delete extraneous information.

 

[jerry33]

Hmm. Couple of things.

-Elon did not give people any indication that they will raise capital when asked multiple times

-Elons guide for S/X was way off and also shut down shifts. They sold and built way less before Raven.

-Elon leaked an email stating Tesla bankruptcy by Oct if they people don't get their *sugar* together

I mean you may not be wrong, but a lot did go right for multibillionairs especially out of Elons mouth for this attack to work.

The first point is correct.
The second point is questionable because they stopped selling the low priced and most popular model. In addition there were rumours of an imminent refresh, so buyers of the higher end S/X postponed purchases.
The third point is not what Elon said. He said if they spent money at the same rate, they would run out of money in ten months. He never mentioned bankruptcy. However, the spending he was referring to was an aberration for a particular time period (Q1).