Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Tesla has shipping costs an internal fleet would reduce.
Other companies are doing buses.
Emissions wise, semis are a larger contributor. Medium and heavy duty trucks are ~20x buses

https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P100ZK4P.pdf

Plus, there's no reason the Semi can't be the basis for a school bus or many other types of transport vehicles over time. Just load all them damn kids in a trailer with windows and there you go!

 

[jerry33]

IIRC Elon claimed on 3rd Row that almost all legacy auto profits came from parts... And that’s a disadvantage for a rapidly growing company like Tesla.

But that would include the dealerships. A pretty good comparison because Tesla is manufacturer and dealer, so not including dealerships wouldn't be an exact comparison.

 

[humbaba]

Actually Tesla said the anode was only a 5% decrease in cost per kWh, so current price is $1.26 not $10.

no, the 5% reduction is relative to pack cost, not the part cost.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Stupid question...why is Tesla getting into Semi's before busses? Seems like busses would be an "easier" challenge compared to Semi's. School busses for example...They have plenty of time they can charge after the morning route and after the afternoon route.

Is there just more profit to be had with Semi's versus busses?

Plus I hate getting stuck behind a school bus and just watch the exhaust pore out. lol

Just guessing here, but school busses are sold to school districts, which move at the speed of municipal govts. Ie the sales cycle is long and tortuous. They also aren’t the most innovative buyers in the world. GP is one company that makes busses. Read their press releases to understand the hoops you have to go through to win contracts.

Tesla’s strategy is to go after the highest volume vehicles. The ones that need the most batteries. Things that aren’t as high volume (like farm and utility tractors), or have small battery needs (like lawnmowers) are going to have to be supplied by others. Great business opportunities for entrepreneurs I would think.

 

[humbaba]

But that would include the dealerships. A pretty good comparison because Tesla is manufacturer and dealer, so not including dealerships wouldn't be an exact comparison.

I didn't hang on to the link, but in a previous post about how legacy manufacturers made money the parts manufacturing unit of one was the only one not included in their bankruptcy. Think about it: the rest of automotive manufacturer is losing money hand over fist, but the parts manufacturing is still profitable.

 

[Todd Burch]

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Wall Street is blind.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Wall Street is blind.

You forgot...

Me: Thanks for the discounted shares i was able to add

 

[ZeApelido]

More SpaceX news than Tesla, but a link to how much money SpaceX is gonna generate for Musk (GPS navigation).

The US Army wants to modify SpaceX’s Starlink satellites for unjammable navigation

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, considering we are talking about other markets for Tesla. I think new markets are on topic? If not my apologies.

Kimbal Musk's Square Roots is on a mission to feed the world — and eventually astronauts on Mars.

Kimball's company is taking shipping containers and turning them into mini farms. This might be our future thanks to climate change. These pods would be placed in urban areas (lowering cost of shipping the food). Hey, how do you think we should power these? Perhaps solar, with battery backups. Bonus round, high yield indoor farming is a critical pillar for an extra-terrestrial colony. Of course that's totally unrelated to Tesla.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

mrw sifting through posts and seeing all of the rabbit holes people went down. Still read 'em all though.

In investment/trading news I'm liking the uptrend in Tesla's share price while seeing a continual decrease in expected volatility with option IV now in the 93% range. IV has been higher 62% of the time in the last twelve trailing months. Once IV drops below 90% I think purchasing straddles (buying a call and put at the same strike price) is a great trade betting on Tesla's upside while protecting yourself from downside risk.

 

[Unpilot]

First, he's from Michigan. Second, he knows trucks. Third, he really studies.

Everything except the Michigan part makes sense.

 

[Sanny]

Just guessing here, but school busses are sold to school districts, which move at the speed of municipal govts. Ie the sales cycle is long and tortuous. They also aren’t the most innovative buyers in the world. GP is one company that makes busses. Read their press releases to understand the hoops you have to go through to win contracts.

Not an educator, but I was always under the impression that US is purposely using non-air-conditioned, built on a truck chassis school buses to toughen those spoiled modern kids up a bit.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If anyone feels like listening to 8 mins of nonstop misinformation, go listen to the Adam Jonas interview on yahoo finance that was posted about 30 mins ago.

Tesla's China sales will see a 'steady decline' to nothing by 2030: Adam Jonas

Watch at your own risk of tolerance

 

[SOULPEDL]

A few pages back, someone mentioned that it should be obvious what's going to happen when you look at the 6 mo or 1yr, and left it there...

Here's the 6 mo. The SP movement doesn't really say much to me, but were you talking about the BB? (Sorry I couldn't find the post and it was today, lol.) As my shape predicting skills go, is the BB going to get skinny and go up? (You can tell I'm a real pro.)

 

[bkp_duke]

A few pages back, someone mentioned that it should be obvious what's going to happen when you look at the 6 mo or 1yr, and left it there...

Here's the 6 mo. The SP movement doesn't really say much to me, but were you talking about the BB? (Sorry I couldn't find the post and it was today, lol.) As my shape predicting skills go, is the BB going to get skinny and go up? (You can tell I'm a real pro.)

View attachment 593044

Amateur here, but have been reading @Curt Renz 's book, and to me it looks like the last 3 months or so are forming a "bullish pennant / wedge" pattern based upon the share price pattern, indicating consolidation with a possible break-out soon.

My gut tells me that the break-out news would be Q3 deliveries and possible S&P inclusion.

Not advice, just my personal read. If I'm wrong, please teach me more and what to look for.

 

[heltok]

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Wall Street is blind.

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Me: Guess I’m buying again!
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Me: LDO! How else could they drive it in Nürburgring or say that yield is rate is not perfect yet?
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Thanks Wallstreet! Now just gotta decide if I should diversify back or hodl a bit longer just for the hell of it!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

A few pages back, someone mentioned that it should be obvious what's going to happen when you look at the 6 mo or 1yr, and left it there...

Here's the 6 mo. The SP movement doesn't really say much to me, but were you talking about the BB? (Sorry I couldn't find the post and it was today, lol.) As my shape predicting skills go, is the BB going to get skinny and go up? (You can tell I'm a real pro.)

View attachment 593044

If you plot trend points on the highs and lows on each rally and corresponding consolidation, dating back 6 month to 1 year, to me at least, its very clear the stock jumps to the 550-600 level on the next rally to keep that trend line intact.

Obviously if there were not near term catalysts to initiate the next rally to keep that trend line intact, i wouldn't be nearly as confident in those trend lines staying intact. The longer we stay in this consolidation period, the higher I think the stock will rally to keep those trend lines intact

 

[KMCC]

I've considered the cost of Supercharging to be a huge PLUS for the group of us that plan on seeing the USA in our Conestoga Cybertrcks. Originally (before I got the Tesla Money Bug) I hoped to earn enough money with TSLA that I could pay off the house, buy a small ($40k) property in Alabama, and buy a Cyber Conestoga Wagon. And then just tour the USA on my Social Security income, seeing everything a poor boy never got to see except in magazines, Or in the late Winter TV scheduling, on a Sunday Afternoon with Curt Gowdy, The American Sportsman.
Yes, Supercharger Fuel pricing is awesome, but especially if it is also being your "Home utility bill" for months on the road.
And i imagine to a lesser extent other road vacationers will grin from ear to ear as they top off their tank of electrons at the Supercharger.

My wife and I are planning on hitting the road in our cybertruck when the time comes. It would be fun to do it in a LARGE group.
Talk about free advertising. Can you imagine 100 cybertrucks traveling the country as a convoy!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just guessing here, but school busses are sold to school districts, which move at the speed of municipal govts. Ie the sales cycle is long and tortuous. They also aren’t the most innovative buyers in the world. GP is one company that makes busses. Read their press releases to understand the hoops you have to go through to win contracts.

Tesla’s strategy is to go after the highest volume vehicles. The ones that need the most batteries. Things that aren’t as high volume (like farm and utility tractors), or have small battery needs (like lawnmowers) are going to have to be supplied by others. Great business opportunities for entrepreneurs I would think.

I could see Tesla partnering with a school bus manufacturer to deliver packs/drivetrains. There's probably a lot of margin up for grabs as demand should ramp quite dramatically. Well-off school districts will be absolutely demanding US manufactured EV school buses starting pretty much now, Tesla can easily take a fat margin that the manufacturer will happily pass on without complaint.

It'll be interesting to see if Chinese/Korean packs and drivetrains will be acceptable to these elitist school districts at the front end of the demand explosion. I guess it'll probably be fine, but there are a lot of weird rules in the school bus manufacturing world.

 

[scaesare]

Watch Sandy Munroe's videos about it. It accomplishes in about 3 pieces what would take traditional setups orders of magnitude more pieces and space.

That's my point. It's a packaging optimization. It packages multiple valves in a single assmbly. But there's really no new functionality/capability it introduces.