corduroy
Active Member
Great insight, what time horizons do you like for the straddles?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Great insight, what time horizons do you like for the straddles?
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Interesting. But does it make sense to show the MX getting more miles per kWh than Roadster? Assuming these are EPA estimates, that seems off.I think a circa 2025 Tesla lineup could look like this:
Well who's selling right now? This is just two servers selling the same share backwards and forwards all day...
I closed out my Friday to Monday bet fairly early this morning as I saw QQQ descending. I'm happy with a 4.5% return for a weekend wager. The Tesla sentiment is positive enough so that if the NASDAQ was holding steady at up 2% or climbing, TSLA would be climbing too. With QQQ and NASDAQ descending, TSLA was caught in the tractor beam, and I have no desire to gamble on what NASDAQ does for the rest of the day when it was showing a slow descent throughout the morning. That said, the increasingly positive TSLA sentiment will help us as we near the Q3 Production and Delivery report. I am HODLing for that report with my shares and leaps but Friday to Monday bets are gambling, not investing, and so I kept my bet down to 100 shares. Now that QQQ is rising, if it continues to do so TSLA should break out of its 418ish cap and climb too, just as it did on Friday when the NASDAQ showed continued climbing in the afternoon.
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Mo City
Active Member
On two occasions recently I've heard an Ark analyst say they are revising their Tesla forecast. Hope they don't wait until January to release it.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
The proposition of the semi has had me scratching my head since its unveiling. Finally, BD has created a scenario that makes it possible IMO. Until BD, I could never see the margins, scale and cell availability to be feasible. My next question is are we sure that the semi requires the high Nickel, high performance, highest price cells?
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Contains conjecture:-
Redistributes any heat from any system to where it is needed most. Cools anything that needs cooling. Otherwise you have some sub-systems cooling and some using resistive heating all at the same time. Much more efficient.
Motors warm and approaching supercharger - use heat from motors to warm up cells. With a domestic air-source heat pump, you might get 4 heat from 1 unit of electricity. Maybe similar here 25 C motors take cells up to 50 C with a heatpump. The motors don't need cooling, but do have useful heat for the cells and much better than resistive heating
Semi needs the cells that provide the range and weight to fit the market. Leading with the lightest, highest energy version ensures maximum addressable market (assuming final cost is not prohibitive, but given the number of miles, that amortizes out easily.).
I'm watching the March 19, 2021 options for a possible short term trade. You have Q3, Q4, and poss sp500 inclusion as events that should result in a spike in IV. A few weeks ago when I initiated a straddle with IV I think around 88 there was a spike the following week to above 100 and both calls and puts were up in value even though the puts were further out of the money.
For people who would rather not buy straddles, and prefer to purchase call options the 2023 leaps look great too.
"Garden Gary"?Boring Company... the mirco Godot (or what do they call them now)
Mo City
Active Member
Crazy is, I posted that theory on battery day, so maybe she's reading my posts, lol. I do still think it's possible, (and it was already debated some here)... but agree she gaffed. Perhaps it's a logical conclusion at ARK that slipped off the tongue, or they have some inside info. It's the conclusion that I came to as well.Cathie specifically used the phrase "$TSLA would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000".
That phrasing implies there is an existing product at a higher price.
It's more likely, IMHO, that Cathie doesn't follow Tesla tech as closely as ARK Invest analysts Sam Korus or Tasha Keeney.
Meet the ARK Team | People passionate about innovation and tomorrow's future
Kathie depends on them for financial analysis, not product road map. It's understandable she missing some nuance (wouldn't last at TMC, wot?)
Cheers!
Cheeseburger Question:
Is it cheaper to invest CapX in a new model, or just continually ramp the same model and just lower Mfg costs?
As if the Model 3 isn't good enough for the US markets. Not a big appetite here for smaller cars, but we will still have Model 3 capacity in the US. That's a distribution issue if demand for North America tapers. So the price must drop, IMHO.
I believe Elon left this out bc of its value to the bears as proof NOT to invest in TSLA, the new break-even company. Battery cost reduction makes this possible.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Mo City
Active Member
Tesla producing 20M BEVs/year before 2030 might be Elon's most ambitious forecast ever. To reach this, growth the next 3-4 years needs to be close to 100% annually before declining (on a % basis) as 2030 approaches.
I think 2-3 huge announcements on new factories are coming over the next 12-18 months.
Mo City
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
lafrisbee
Active Member
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