Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

So I just added all the form 4's up for Elon's sale last Friday. Here's the summary:

Shares sold: 7,924,107
Total Sale Proceeds: $19,562,349,656

That seems a little excessive unless all of his funding from other investors for twitter have fallen out. I expect a significant amount of that to go back into TSLA even if he does end up buying Twitter as I'm betting he hasn't lost every side investor he had lined up.

I think you had an error while adding the numbers.
What you have comes out to 2,400 per share.
I have seen his proceeds reported at $6.9B

 

[elasalle]

In conclusion: Elon is a terrible stock trader. Fortunately he has other skills.

He doesn't care about pennies on the dollar

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Elon is selling!

The morning is still finding footing. Too early to say how it will go today. Once the sales are 'done,' Tesla has typically responded positively. We know the reason for an underperformance now, but does it regress back to the normal is the question. It has in the past, but the past isn't always how it will go in the future.

Not saying the underperformance I expect to continue to be logical, just that I think Elon's pretty much burned the last of any good faith from investors. It will take time (and Tesla as a company continuing it's ramp and beating expectations) for the stock to get more credit that it deserves and thus, get anywhere close to the valuation that we here know it deserves. Which is going to make the incoming 2nd half of 2022 macro stock rally that much more annoying

It won't change anything in terms of valuation years from now, or even 2 years out. But for the next 6-12 months, I expect every milestone, every P/D beat, every earnings beat, to be met with underappreciation. I also expect Moody's/S&P to somehow come to some sort of logic that Elon's stock sales and Twitter buyout to somehow be a threat to Tesla's credit rating and thus they'll delay it well into 2023

 

[Discoducky]

I don't believe it's ever been confirmed that the Semi is using 4680 and in fact, I seem to remember, there have been comments from Tesla that make it seem like it will actually be 2170's

Either way, cells being diverted from Model Y's is bullish as that is the biggest contributor currently to sustainable transportation/energy.

 

[wtlloyd]

??

What we have Up and Down now?
I thought I only had to worry about team Cats & Dogs
same person, but bi-polar

Mods won't knowingly let someone have two accounts. They may smite the old one, in retribution. All that history locked away...

 

[mongo]

He is not going to pay taxes. His cost basis is about $1,000. He will have a loss on these sales.

Edit:
Here is info from Gary Black:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557351146196537344

Or he blends recent and long term share lots to achieve zero net gain.
Doesn't matter since a loss would just carry forward until his 2018 CEO options get exercised.

 

[mickificki]

I’m with JRP3. Time for EM to become Chief Product Officer and hand over CEO to someone who will maximize the stock price.

Who are you and what did you do with @StarFoxisDown! ?

 

[ABC2D]

I had to dig for 5 minutes to find those tweets. It only took 5 min because we were alerted the tweets existed otherwise I would never have seen them.

Look into tweetdeck.twitter.com - the only way to unclutter

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gee.....I wonder if we're going red today

Large sell blocks coming in. Given we know it's not Elon, probably genuine investors bailing

 

[Artful Dodger]

So the Semi releasing this year is bullish on 4680 production I think...

Unless Semi will be produced at the new facility near Giga Nevada. That's where the prototypes and alpha builds were assembled:

Report: Tesla Semi Entered Limited Production In Nevada

The long awaited Tesla Semi has entered a limited production stage at the Tesla Giga Nevada site, according to a new unofficial report.

insideevs.com

Watch First Drone Footage Of The 'Tesla Semi Factory' (At GF 1)

Here is a drone flyover of the Tesla Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, which besides its core battery production, is also engaged in other products, including the Semi.

insideevs.com

BTW, nothing wrong with using 2170s for Semi, especially if Panasonic has the volume capacity and can deliver on the cost. Moar 4680s for moar Cybertrucks!

Cheers!

 

[henchman24]

12,800 for the Nasdaq is pretty important as it is really the last resistance to a 13k test. 13k was rejected 3 times prior to the big breakdown in early May. It also represents the support that held in in Feb. It is also the number the market kept re-testing in the first half of 2021 before leaving it behind in late May until the full breakdown. 13k is a rather critical number for the market to go up in a major way. 12,800 is the last hurdle to clear before the tests on the critical number start.

 

[Todd Burch]

Gee.....I wonder if we're going red today

You are the TMC version of Debbie Downer. .

85% of trading days have had an MMD since what, 2016?

 

[Zero CO2]

It's not about Kool Aid, it's about past performance and track records, and Elon does have a history of making great business decisions which do not seem great at the time he makes them.

And, in my opinion, your post was a tad condescending if I'm being honest.

yeah like starting an electric car co. and a rocket co.

 

[MadScientist23]

I think you had an error while adding the numbers.
What you have comes out to 2,400 per share.
I have seen his proceeds reported at $6.9B

Thank you, you are correct, made a stupid error. I'm going back to edit the original post with the correct numbers.

Total proceeds: $6,886,743,995.00

 

[GOVA]

The tweet where Elon states he is done selling and another tweet where he states he would purchase TSLA shares If deal does not go through are not easily visible to me. I had to dig for 5 minutes to find those tweets. It only took 5 min because we were alerted the tweets existed otherwise I would never have seen them.

These tweets could have market moving implications and therefore Twitter should not be de-emphasizing them.

We all need to relax a bit.

Elon is setting this up perfectly, where the perfect examples of crookery will be used in court by his new blood-thirsty legal team.

 

[Snerruc]

I’m with JRP3. Time for EM to become Chief Product Officer and hand over CEO to someone who will maximize the stock price.

If Tesla CEOs start maximizing the stock price instead of running the company for long term success, we might as well buy GE.

 

[henchman24]

If Tesla CEOs start maximizing the stock price instead of running the company for long term success, we might as well buy GE.

I don't care about Elon maximizing the stock price for the company itself... company is in great shape and it will all work out in the end. In the short term, the getting shot in the foot starts to hurt.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You are the TMC version of Debbie Downer. .

85% of trading days have had an MMD since what, 2016?

You can't be a Debbie Downer when what you're saying is reality. Reality is the Debbie Downer here lol

Some people can get all excited and say "Now the runways clear for TSLA to go to the moon!". That's fine, I just don't think it's going to happen. I don't see how anyone can think that Elon's actions over the past year have helped with investor confidence.

Bare in mind, I'm talking about the stock and it's valuation. Tesla the company will continue to blow away expectations and execute amazingly like they've done every quarter since Q1 2021. But Wall St's not going to give them the credit for it. When your CEO not just erodes investor confidence, but sends it off a cliff, it takes time for the company to gain investor confidence back through execution.

To me, I feel for all the Tesla employees that have worked their ass off and executed like no other only to have your CEO torpedo your equity. Yes the employees that have been there for many years still have huge gains. Tell that to the employees hired since Q4 2020. I'm sure employees love being told "You need to have a 2-3 year time horizon and hold" when it comes to them needing to use their RSU's for life events that require them to sell now.

Since a lot of people seem to overreact to my posts, I clarify again, I have zero interest in selling any shares. I hold quite a few and it makes up a significant amount of my net worth. So my TSLA position isn't chump change that I take lightly. I'm fully aware of what the value of TSLA will be in just a couple years. But I have zero expectations for the stock over the next year thanks to Elon's actions and I can't really blame Wall St at this point.

If Tesla CEOs start maximizing the stock price instead of running the company for long term success, we might as well buy GE.

This type of response is part of the problem. No one is saying Elon needs to cater to the stock and it's valuation. But don't do things that continually lose investor confidence. There's a difference. A big difference.

 

[Mengy]

AANNNNDDD we are right back where we were when the great CPI numbers came out.

Ah well, this all still bodes well for the next few weeks.

 

[bkp_duke]

Taxes anybody?
Hope he does not have to sell more in the future
to pay for long term capital gains.

He could pay zero taxes on these sales, if he sold the right lots. The options he exercised last year to purchase newly issued shares were at values significantly higher than these sales prices. So if anything, he may have a large tax credit for future share sales.

If, however, he picked some of his oldest lots of shares, he has a substantial tax bill.