Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

okay, i will not speculate. have fun making money with your certainty on this forum. i will be busy hitting $1billion+ with my wild speculations

FWIW, I both believe that you are making a ton of money with your options trading, and that a lot of your messages are not very useful - but surely entertaining - for investors in this forum.
You've demonstrated multiple times that you're risk tolerance is borderline pathological. You've gone all in and then all out multiple times, changing your mind in a split second. Good for you if this works.
Mind you, I follow you from the very beginning, I remember the waves you made when you arrived in this forum.

I'm sure in the end you are doing 1000x better than I'm doing, but for the average investor you are quite a dangerous example.
I'd make a lot of money betting that random investors following your strategies would lose a gigazillion dollars.
Alex Honnold doesn't rile up people going free solo because he knows his relationship with fear is vastly different from the average people.

M2c.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I wonder if this is correct?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671762833548410881

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
EV and Battery Credits $4k per used vehicle
Project Highland (Investor impact etc.) New rumour - many details
Boring company Robotaxi Tesla Van with seats?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Weird. I've never had an email from "[email protected]" despite owning 3 Teslas and being a member of TOGUK. I've had plenty of marketing emails from other Tesla addresses, but not that one.

Hmm.. remembering back I tried to be able to vote (unsuccessfully as UK-owned shares are under CREST in UK tax-advantageous accounts like pensions). I probably hit a subscribe option at that time. So, maybe not many people are getting these emails. Pity.

 

[jeewee3000]

I wonder if this is correct?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671762833548410881

For what it's worth: even the earliest Boring Company tunnel renders have shown a passenger "van" or minibus showing seats/benches for around 10-12 people. I do believe Tesla wants to create an autonomous passenger transporting vehicle eventually.

 

[Electroman]

Surely I don’t speak for everyone; but I enjoy your extreme optimism and bold calls. Plenty of bearishness around lately so it’s a nice balance.

If someone doesn’t like your posts, they can put you on ignore. I’m sure I’ve made it onto a few ignore lists…I’m good with that.

Trend is GJ’s alter ego on the other (good) end of the spectrum.

 

[ls7corvete]

Here’s how I look at it.

If you buy the SP500 at a 33 PE versus an historical person buying at a 20 PE, you are effectively buying an asset that returns 3% compared to the historical person buying an asset that returns 5%.

The only way that that buying a the 3% asset can be wise comparatively, is if the future earnings growth is higher than it was historically.

So the industry is only important insofar as it determines the earnings growth.

We’d need to see if the SP500 earnings are growing more rapidly than they did back then. If earnings growth has not accelerated, then stocks are overpriced now, compared to historical norms. Of course even if stocks are a worse deal than historically they might still be a wise investment if alternatives like bonds also yield less than historically.

TINA

 

[Knightshade]

I wonder if this is correct?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671762833548410881

They say there is a secret van, that Elon drove and it pleased the man... But you don't care for EVs do ya?

 

[JRP3]

Surely I don’t speak for everyone; but I enjoy your extreme optimism and bold calls. Plenty of bearishness around lately so it’s a nice balance.

If someone doesn’t like your posts, they can put you on ignore. I’m sure I’ve made it onto a few ignore lists…I’m good with that.

The issue is that some people think he knows something and in the past have lost money because of it. Hopefully people now realize he knows nothing and just randomly shoots out numbers on a whim. That's why I will not put him on ignore and occasionally remind people not to be taken in by his nonsense.

 

[FastEddieB]

One detail jumps out at me, Steer-by-wire and a yoke.

That suggests a possibility of variable ratio steering, which would work well with a yoke.

I don’t think a yoke makes sense unless it’s combined with variable ratio steering. Going hand-over-hand to make sharp turns is awkward with a yoke but natural with a wheel.

Airplanes with yokes usually rotate 45° to about 90° for the most aggressive maneuvers, keeping yoke-mounted buttons and switches in their approximate correct orientation. That philosophy would make a lot of sense with an automotive yoke.

As an aside, many modern planes have replaced yokes with sidesticks, freeing up the space in front of the pilot completely. In an automotive context, that could help with crash protection as well. Large, transport class aircraft are already fly-by-wire, kind of originating the concept.

Here’s an example in a Cirrus, the best-selling General Aviation aircraft currently.

 

[Baumisch]

Probably right now. My take is that it's a combination of Tesla becoming the future gas station of the world and real tangible FSDb progress that is slowly pushing the share price higher.

"Gas Station of the World"?

In the US this seams to be happening,
the Rest of the World I'm not so sure.

 

[scaesare]

I don’t think a yoke makes sense unless it’s combined with variable ratio steering. Going hand-over-hand to make sharp turns is awkward with a yoke but natural with a wheel.

Airplanes with yokes usually rotate 45° to about 90° for the most aggressive maneuvers, keeping yoke-mounted buttons and switches in their approximate correct orientation. That philosophy would make a lot of sense with an automotive yoke.

As an aside, many modern planes have replaced yokes with sidesticks, freeing up the space in front of the pilot completely. In an automotive context, that could help with crash protection as well. Large, transport class aircraft are already fly-by-wire, kind of originating the concept.

Here’s an example in a Cirrus, the best-selling General Aviation aircraft currently.

I generally agree with your overall post...

One comment: the issue with button/switch orientation exists with the wheel too (I occasionally have to either contort to use a steering wheel button while maneuvering or use my non-default hand), so variable ratio steering would seem to improve that aspect for both designs...

 

[FastEddieB]

The issue is that some people think he knows something and in the past have lost money because of it. Hopefully people now realize he knows nothing and just randomly shoots out numbers on a whim. That's why I will not put him on ignore and occasionally remind people not to be taken in by his nonsense.

I don’t technically have him on ignore, but do ignore any of his - or other’s - prognostications. Historically, they are no better than chance.

I was even pushed an article this morning that TA signals indicate Tesla is “overbought” and due for a pullback due to some “Golden Cross” nonsense. It may pull back, or it may continue to advance. I still hold Technical Analysis has zero predictive value and is a horrible way to try to time the market.

 

[FastEddieB]

One comment: the issue with button/switch orientation exists with the wheel too (I occasionally have to either contort to use a steering wheel button while maneuvering or use my non-default hand), so variable ratio steering would seem to improve that aspect for both designs...

Good point.

 

[scaesare]

ROTJ was 4 years later from the original SW, so you're saying we have to wait 4 years?

(Seeing as how trading hasn't started yet)

6 years actually:

 

[Big Time]

Congrats All!

 

[GrandEnigma]

Congrats All!

View attachment 950058
View attachment 950062

Was this it?

 

[TesslaBull]

Anyone able to explain the "Golden Cross" discussion? Folks seem to see this as a significant event and I am utterly clueless.

On another note, a lot of speculation on what will drive Tesla's value going forward i.e. FSDb, bot, energy, etc etc.(not saying I disagree)

The things that I really latch onto are the gen 3 vehicle(s) and CT. These seem to be more concrete changes taking place with fairly well defined timeframes. It's hard for me to imagine these don't have drastic effects on share price as production ramps.

 

[Patrick66]

...Hopefully somethign similar doesn't happen with the 3 -- production shut down, followed by a long time to restart and a slow ramp.

I think Tesla didn't see a value in committing resources to delivery on the S/X refresh compared to ramping Berlin and Austin. I would guess that was the right decision as well.

For the 3 I would be surprised if they let something similar happen; they have the resources to manage it properly today as long as it launches before the Cybertruck starts volume production. As a higher volume product some aspects are actually easier with the 3 compared to S/X. Presumably they switch to megacasts with the refresh, which creates some potential risks, but I think they can manage fine.

 

[Unpilot]

Looks at SP.

If this is the result of a "golden cross"...no thanks.